NEWS OF THE DAY
I’m heading off in a little bit to New York City, Manhattan I mean, to meet Fantasy Alarm’s Rick Wolf and Glenn Colton to scout locations for this year’s Tout Wars Weekend party. Yes, Tout Wars is going live and in person again, for the first time since 2019, on the weekend of March 18th and 19th. More details to come as the date gets nearer
So, I’m sending this off a little earlier than usual today, with a look at the top half of the second base class this year. There are some price changes, bumps up and down, nothing too dramatic, but I write about some of those players about whom there seemed to be questions.
I’m going to tackle the second part of the list in a paid subscriber-only add-on tonight or tomorrow morning. I’m looking at Jonathan Aranda, Christopher Morel, and the Nicks, Allen and Gordon, for starters. Let me know who else at second base you’d like to see profiled.
And if you’re not a subscriber you can learn more and sign up by clicking the green square:
Note: I’m adding a third classification today, for guys I’m not picking or panning: MEH. It’s for guys too pricey to PICK but too good to PAN. Basically, if their price went up I’d say PAN, if their price dropped I’d say PICK. At just right? MEH.
SECOND ACTS
Jose Altuve, Hou: Obviously a terrific player, but he's not top-ranked here because you cannot believe the steals. Sure, he was only thrown out once last year, but players run less as they age and he's aging. That's all. PICK, at this price.
Photo: Ryan Casey Aguinaldo
Jazz Chisholm Jr., Mia: There are two ways to look at a guy who missed much of last season with a bad back (stress fracture) and bad knee (torn meniscus) and still managed to hit double-digit homers and steal digit bases. If he's healthy he's going to explode! Or, he sure is fragile! I think he might explode, at least if he isn't fragile, but there are other reasons to be a little cautious. He swings and misses quite a bit and has struggled with offspeed stuff, which he was offered more of last year. His power and speed are verified, but whether or not that means there is an upside is far from certain. MEH
Bryson Stott, Phi: After a disappointing first couple of months up with the big club he closed the season solidly. His best attribute is clearly his speed, which could tick up the steals if he gets on base enough. His second best attribute is that he makes contact. Was it a coincidence that his overall offensive profile got stronger when he wasn't hitting as many homers? I wouldn't count on a homer uptick this year, but a bump in batting average and stolen bases is possible and would be sweet. PICK
Gavin Lux, LAD: Former first-rounder has been a disappointment. What looked like explosive power in Triple-A in 2019 has not made a major league appearance since. Instead, he's shown good strike zone and contact skills but has turned into a groundball hitter, for the most part. Meanwhile, his throwing problems mean he's playing more outfield. It isn't impossible for him to make the adjustments necessary to step up his game, so one of those surprising breakout seasons could happen, but there isn't any good reason to think that it's coming this year. Especially since so much of his value is tied up right now in his batting average. PAN
Vaughn Grissom, Atl: No deep analysis here, but he's young with hardly any experience above High-A. That he wasn't crushed last summer when called on to replace Ozzie Albies isn't meaningless, but Albies is back. Grissom looks like the shortstop on a team with World Series ambitions, which is something that could work but there will certainly be a short leash if he struggles at the plate or in the field. That makes his current price too high. PAN
Whit Merrifield, Tor: After he stole 40 bags in 2021 expectations were super high, and they of course crashed last year. Given his age, the stolen bases weren't going to come forever, but he's still a solid glove and a decent contact hitter who will have real fantasy value if he plays regularly. It looks right now like folks are running scared, which makes him a PICK.
CJ Abrams, Was: His prospect profile was a ton of speed with a little pop and good contact skills. His ascension through the minors was plagued by injuries, so it is hard to get a sense of how much he might run, but his 91-percentile sprint speed suggests he could run as much as he wanted to. He ran more after he arrived in Washington, so there is reason to expect a bump there. He's a good contact hitter who could quickly grow into a very fantasy-friendly profile. PICK
ASK ROTOMAN
Rotoman!
How do you think the pitch clock will affect Kenley Jansen since he seems like one of the worst offenders at taking FOREVER to deliver the d**n ball?
“Time’s Up”
Dear Time:
Last year Kenley was only the third slowest pitcher with the bases empty, but he was the slowest with runners on base.
You can see the pitch tempo leaderboard at Baseball Savant.
Savant has a caveat about comparing this pitch tempo metric to the pitch clock MLB is adopting this coming year. They say:
Before you compare this metric to the newly approved 2023 pitch timer please note that this is not measuring the same timing as the MLB pitch timer.
The pitch timer starts when the pitcher receives the return throw from the catcher and ends once the pitcher starts his delivery.
Our pitch tempo metric measures the time between pitch releases: starting the clock as soon as the pitcher releases the previous pitch and ending when the pitcher releases the next pitch.
About six seconds elapses from "start of delivery" to "receiving return throw": 1.5 seconds to release the pitch, 0.5 seconds for pitcher-to-catcher, 4.0 seconds for catcher-back-to-pitcher
Deduct 6 seconds from each player’s tempo and it appears that Kenley will not have a problem this season. He’ll have anywhere from 19 seconds to, uh-oh, 25 seconds to make his pitch.
These are the guys who appear to really be in trouble:
But seriously, I’ve seen a lot of Arizona Fall League games, and the clock, while a visual distraction like the shot clock in basketball, isn’t really noticeable. Unlike the basketball clock, there are no frenzied attempts to get the shot off. Instead, the game is just a bit crisper, save a few seconds here and a few others there.
If some pitchers are affected they are likely to those who take their time with runners on base, like Jensen. But I suspect that when forced to step it up they will be able to make the necessary adjustments.
I worry far more about Jensen’s arm and the wear and tear of years of hard use than the timer.
Sincerely,
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