INJURIES
If you’ve already drafted your team injuries can be a source of pain. But if you’re leading up to drafts/auctions (mine are this Saturday and the following Sunday) staying on top of who is hurt and how bad is important.
I’ve updated the spreadsheets (for Guide buyers and Substack subscribers) with adjusted projections for Matt McLain, TJ Friedl, Noelvi Marte (suspended) and players not on the Reds, like DJ LeMahieu, Tommy Edman, Lars Nootbaar, Jonathan Aranda, Taj Bradley, Jhoan Duran, Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, and Yimi Garcia. Garcia isn’t hurt, he looks to be in line for saves if Romano and Swanson start the year on the IL. This list is not exhaustive.
The thing about many of these cases is we don’t know how long these players will be out. I bought Braxton Garrett and Jameson Taillon in Tout Wars last Sunday because they were cheap. They were cheap, I knew, because they were dinged up, but at $7 and $3 I thought each was worth the risk. And I have to admit I wasn’t sure how dinged up they were. Now I know a little more about their situations and I think I made out okay, but if one ends up on the IL longer than anticipated I won’t be surprised. That’s the nature of these things. If I get a half-season from each of them I’ll be happy.
Tougher is the case of McLain, who came down with shoulder soreness this week. Maybe rest will take care of it and he’ll return in a few weeks. But he’s headed for a second opinion and that might lead to surgery, in which case he’ll miss months. If you’re drafting this weekend you probably won’t know the prognosis and the timeline for his return. I’ve cut him to 325 at-bats and a $12 bid, which splits the difference between him coming back in late April and him making appearances in September. Or 2025.
How you treat him should depend on your goals for this year and going forward. If my strategy is to take risks this year he’s a target. If I’m shoring up my strengths, avoiding risks, I’ll let him go.
That should be part of your conversation with yourself about every injured guy.
LOST AND FOUND
In putting together today’s update over at Pattonandco.com (great discussions about baseball and players with a fantasy perspective, for free), from which today’s Subscriber and Rotoman’s Guide buyer updates are derived, I found a few players who deserve a little attention.
I didn’t profile Richie Palacios in the Guide. I didn’t see then how he could crack the crowded Rays roster, but it appears he has because of Josh Lowe’s oblique injury. Lowe’s injury isn’t too severe (Grade 1), but he’s hardly played this spring, which means Palacios might get a few weeks playing the strong side of the platoon. He makes contact and can run, no power is the book, but he had a .258 ISO in 108 PA with the Cardinals last summer, and a .233 in spring training this year. That’s not nothing. Could be a $1 find in AL-only leagues.
I did profile Miguel Andujar in the Guide, pointing out that his Statcast numbers while with Pittsburgh last year were similar to those in his rookie breakout 2018 campaign. He’s having a strong spring with the Athletics and would seem to be their DH. He’s flying under the radar, no expert leagues picked him up, so I’ve given him a modest $4 bid price. He hasn’t struck out in 43 plate appearances this camp, the only qualified hitter not to have struck out even once.
The roster projection article at MLB.com makes the case that Jacob Waguespack should be the fifth starter in Tampa to start the season. Waguespack’s velocity is up after spending 2022 and 2023 pitching in Japan. But he had a 5.77 for Orix last year, which makes me dubious, but Kevin Cash is talking him up, too. I’m going out on a very thick limb to say, don’t believe the hype.
Bradley Zimmer, unlike Richie Palacios, didn’t even get a statbox in the Guide, much less a writeup, but he’s still in the Rockies camp as I type. He has always had a power/speed combo that intrigued until you confronted his swing/miss combo. If he somehow wins a job in Colorado he could be that special $1 final outfielder who fits on a team that dumps batting average.
Let me know if you see other bottom barrel types that need some attention.
ROTOMAN’S FANTASY GUIDE 2024 UPDATE
Here’s a special sheet for folks who bought Rotoman’s Fantasy Guide 2024. A Dropbox Excel download updated through March 21.
It’s password-protected. The password is the last word in the Ronald Acuña Jr. profile in The Guide. Lower case.
If you want to make edits save it with a different name.
The Editor’s Letter and Why We Did Pages for Rotoman’s Guide, which are missing in the printed Guide.
Members here at the Substack have an updated spreadsheet that is linked to after the paywall below (after Rotoman’s signature). Paid subscribers, even for one month, get access to that one.
FOR SALE
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024, softcover, $20, Kindle, $10.
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024, PDF, $12.
Ron Shandler’s Fantasy Expert, hardcover, $25, Kindle, $12. I wrote the foreword.
Les Leopold’s Wall Street’s War on Workers, hardcover, $25, Kindle, $23. I did a lot of the data work and some editing.
HOUSEKEEPING
When Will I See You Again Dept.: Ask questions, suggest topics, there will be a news update tomorrow.
I’ve posted the Historical Top Players by Position for 2021-2023 charts after the Paywall.
Thanks for your comments, questions, arguments, and news.
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