WELCOME
Congratulations to the Tigres del Licey for their 23rd Dominican Winter League title. Mets prospect Ronny Mauricio, coming off a 20-20 season in Double-A, scored the winning run, driven in by Mel Rojas Jr., who has hit 114 homers over the last three years in the KBO.
Photo: Eli Christman from Richmond, VA, USA of Mel Rojas Jr. in 2013, not hitting a home run
The plan over the next couple of weeks is to work up a complete set of projections (pitchers first draft coming next Tuesday) and to begin testing them and the player rankings here in the newsletter. The idea is to use the ranks to identify players about whom there are real questions, and to fine-tune the rankings as we head toward the start of spring training.
It’s a rainy day here in New York, so let’s talk about some first basemen.
FIRST BASE
Discussion No. 1: Is Vlad Jr. really No. 1 in a list that also includes Freddie Freeman? Over the last two years Freeman has earned $81 while Vladdie has earned $74. That’s a difference, but not a big difference. But over those same two years, Freeman has gone from being 31 to 33, while Guerrero Jr. has gone from 21 to 23. Freeman is showing no signs of decline, last year was his best yet, but everybody at some point declines, and even if he didn’t it might be possible for Vlad to catch him. PICK Vlad, PAN (gently) Freeman.
Discussion No. 2: Can Paul Goldschmidt, repeat? What a year he had! He’s two years older than Freeman and he too had a career year. Unlike Freeman, his price might only be high this year, not stratospheric, because of those first two mediocre years in St. Louis. That’s good, but all other things being equal you have to take his age even more seriously. Athletes are amazing, maybe he’ll do it again, but the odds are against it. PAN
Discussion No. 3: A Matt Olson collapse? Or a Matt Olson high price? My price for Olson right now is pretty much market. You can tell by looking at the fifth column of the image above, which is displaying recent ADPs for these players. That’s Average Draft Position, the mean of the picks in 150 NFBC drafts already completed for this coming season. Olson is ranked No. 46 by average, he’s 41st by earliest, and 42nd by latest. So why do I have him ranked 100th overall among hitters, based on my projection? It’s all about the batting average. He’ll hit the homers, but if he strikes out nearly 25 percent of the time again and hits .245 the runs and runs batted in won’t come. A guy who has been about a $20 earner in all but his career 2021 season might slip a bit and suddenly be a a high teens type hitter, especially in BA leagues. In OBP leagues his fine eye insulates his value. I have to admit, however, that there is also a chance he’ll recover the contact skills he discovered in 2021, in which case I’ll be very wrong and those paying too much will be right. PAN
Discussion No. 4: Who is Vinnie Pasquantino and why is he loved so much? He was called up at midseason, much to the approval of the prospect hounds and dynasty league players who have been on him as he’s made his way up through the Royals system. In some ways, he didn’t disappoint. For instance, he walked more than he struck out. Not many do that and all who do are pretty good. On the other hand, he didn’t whack the cover off the ball, but then he wasn’t supposed to. So what’s a .290 hitter with 20 homer power worth? A lot less than people are paying right now. PAN
Discussion No. 5: You really love Ty France! Actually, it’s nothing personal. The last two years France earned $24 and $22, yet he’s being drafted as if he’s going to earn $16. I have him priced at $20, which seems fair. A closer look, however, shows that France has the power and contact skills of Vinnie Pasquantino, but he doesn’t draw nearly as many walks, nor does he hit the ball nearly as hard. Plus he’s a late-bloomer. He’s a PICK because the market is so down on him, but he’s a guy to settle on, not pursue. Ps. I knocked him down a buck.
Discussion No. 6: You’re treating Anthony Rizzo like dirt. Show some respect! For me, he’s a guy who had a complete offensive game when he was younger. He hit for average and he hit for power, he even stole 17 bags once. He took plenty of walks and put the ball in play, which made him upper-tier. Three years ago he started struggling. Could that have been the end of Rizzo? It turns out no, but his game has now changed in little ways. Maybe people are looking at the Statcast numbers and they show he’s not that much different, but can three years of batting average struggles be due to bad BABIP luck? Maybe, but I’m not buying in on the comeback. I have Rizzo priced so he might help a team, rather than be a big risk. PICK
Discussion No. 7: Luis Arraez’s projection is outrageous! Is it? The batting champion is projected to hit .314 right now, which seems like a lot but is in fact his career average. When I price players their actual good batting averages give them real value, which is how Arraez earned $31 simoleans last year. But when we price projections we discover that we don’t want to pay in advance for batting average, because as a two-factor stat, it is subject to more variance. That is, it depends on hits, but it also depends on at-bats. More at-bats and fewer hits at the same time can be punishing, even if it’s because the batter is hitting the ball hard but right at fielders. It’s tempting but don’t rely on any pricing of player projections.
Discussion No. A: Who is Triston Casas? The Red Sox first baseman, at least some of the time. He knows the strike zone and has developed not only an ability to take walks but also to avoid strikeouts. And he’s expected to hit for power. In the minors, he has not hit lefties much at all, which is a problem, but he’s been oh-so-much better against righties. Expect him to platoon, but still be very productive if not yet the power-hitter the Red Sox expect him to become. PICK
Casas also played for the Tigres del Licey team that won this year’s DWL championship.
That’s a good point to square the circle of today’s discussion. Let me know if you have any questions about these first-base rankings and prices, or about any first basement. Tomorrow we’ll dig a little deeper at first, in Part 2 of 1B.
FAREWELL, FOR NOW
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See you tomorrow!
Sincerely,
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