Under Assistant West Coast Promotions, AL and NL Position Battles Pt. 3

Plus, A Reader's Listmaking Tips

TELL ROTOMAN: Listing

Dear Rotoman:

Just a little tip re: draft lists.

I use bold print for my targets, italics for injured or injury risk guys, and strike-through for all keepers. That last allows me to see on my list who the competition already has and which of my targets are already gone (without having to find the info in RotoLab or on the draft website. It's sort of a red flag for coming to the end of a tier.

I also have a Top 25 or so list above the separate position lists for both hitters and pitchers. Those are superstar/transcendent/foundational players that I'd like to have regardless of their position eligibility.

I list by position eligibility and tiers after that. Similarly to your uppercase letters, Peter, I list multi-position players at the position I'd like to use them most, but indicate all the positions for which they're eligible. It seems like a fun trick if I can get a target at their secondary position because I already have someone I ranked higher at their primary position!

“List-o-mania”

Dear List-o:

All good suggestions and I’m with you on the fun trick of drafting at secondary positions.

Did you know Roger Daltrey played the composer Franz Liszt in Ken Russell’s bio-pic, LisztOmania?

Thanks,
Rotoman

TELL ROTOMAN: Turang Harang

Dear Rotoman:

Turang is literally the best fielder in baseball (or was last year). He's not losing at-bats.

“Rangey”

Brice Turang scores the winning run in the 8th for a 1-0 win. Photo: Ken Mattison CC 2.0

Dear Rangey:

I should have mentioned that. I did in the Guide, where I pointed out he’d lead off less, not play less, which is what Roster Resource was suggesting and I was referring to. But your note got me wondering what the value of Turang’s defense is compared to his very weak offense against lefties.

Over the course of last season Turang saved 22 runs with his defense, according to FanGraphs, which publishes the Defensive Runs Saved count that originated at Baseball Info Solutions in 2005. That, indeed, was the highest total in all of baseball last year. It means that he saved 22 more runs than the average second baseman, and 35 more runs than Jose Altuve, the game’s worst second baseman last year.

But in other ways of measuring defense Turang doesn’t rank as highly. In Statcast’s overall measure, Fielding Run Value, Turang ranked 60th of all defenders, with a rating of 4, well behind Andres Gimenez and Marcus Semien at second base, both with 14. Altuve, by the way, was -6.

How much offense does Turang cost the Brewers batting against lefties? Last year, he produced -5 weighted runs above average (or you could say 5 weighted runs below average) against lefties, ranking 49th of 53 second basemen. So, a lot.

I started to game out on a runs basis how much Turang sitting on defense would hurt the Brewers and how much they’d be helped if they had someone who could hit lefties, but it’s not an equation I’m comfortable with.

For one, these different numbers measure different things, which is why the Defensive Runs Saved count and rankings differ from Fielding Run Value’s count and ranking. Other fielding metrics are different, as well, so which is to be trusted?

For two, it is usually advised that one season’s worth of defensive stats should be taken as advisory. Defensive players don’t make enough plays to adequately judge based on one season’s worth of chances. Two seasons are much better. Turang hasn’t played two full seasons yet.

On a more practical level, I don’t know how much Vinny Capra can hit. He has banged the ball in spring training, but he’s a 29-year-old rookie known up to this point for his glove.

And Caleb Durbin, the other option, who is expected to hit more, hasn’t hit much in camp so far. So, is he a compelling platoon partner? Not yet. And how’s his fielding? I don’t know.

Let me leave it at this. Mixing and matching platoonists is part science, which I think says that Turang might have a better half (a right-handed spouse, you might say) somewhere against lefties, maybe someone currently on the current Brewers roster. Or not. But management has to consider whether the difference is compelling enough to mix it up with a player with excellent defensive skills coming off a full season as a regular. Faith in a player and his confidence matter, and undermining that can be a little like playing with fire.

So, I agree, chances are that unless Turang craters even more against lefties, he’s likely to play most days, often batting ninth.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

LEFT COAST

While we go over the projected batting orders and platoons at Roster Resource and MLB.com, a silly but catchy one from the Stones.

NL West

Diamondbacks:

Roster Resource has Jake McCarthy batting fifth, ahead of Eugenio Suarez, which makes sense in a R-L-R-L handed sequence, but MLB has McCarthy batting eighth, which makes sense in an analytical baseball way. For Suarez that probably doesn’t make as much difference as it does for McCarthy, who isn’t a lock to beat out Alek Thomas as the team’s centerfielder. Neither is doing much this spring, but McCarthy is the better hitter, Thomas the better fielder. I’ll go with McCarthy, who should steal bases for his fantasy baseball supper.

At DH, Pavin Smith lines up against righties, while Randal Grichuk should face lefties. Smith has a .760 OPS versus righties, while Grichuk has an .833 versus lefties, so that should work out simply fine.

The D-Backs front five starters are agreed upon by both sources, but you can be sure that Ryne Nelson and Jordan Montgomery will be waiting in the wings for a stumble. Nelson has not found a way to miss bats thus far, and Montgomery, after his disastrous year, has only gotten one batter out this spring while facing six. He’s been relegated to the back diamonds in camp to work through his problems.

Dodgers:

Michael Conforto joins the bottom half of the lineup, coming off a decent year for the Giants. He’ll be given days off but should play regularly and hit for decent, not great, power.

MLB has Andy Pages playing centerfield and batting ninth this year, despite a tepid camp. Roster Resource says James Outman and Enrique Hernandez will platoon. Outman has been okay against righties, but struck out more than 32 percent of the time against them. Hernandez is better against lefties than righties, but doesn’t do much against either except in the post-season.

Tony Gonsolin’s injury means Dustin May rounds out the stacked rotation, at least until Shohei Ohtani is able to go regularly. Then they’ll move to a six-man rotation, assuming they all stay healthy. May throws hard, gets hurt a lot, and doesn’t miss that many bats when he’s good to go. There’s potential there, he looks like he’s on fire when his hat falls off, but expectations should be modest.

Giants:

Jung Hoo Lee was hurt early last year, and so we don’t have a proper measure of how his skills will translate to MLB. He’s an extreme contact hitter with decent strike zone discipline, with modest power and speed. He should have a healthy batting average and is hitting .300 this spring, while striking out a surprising 20 percent of the time.

LaMonte Wade Jr. is another on-base machine and will lead off against righties. He’ll platoon with Jerar Encarnacion, who will not be leading off. Encarnacion has been having a solid camp, but in 200 major league plate appearances so far he has struck out nearly 33 percent of the time. Color me skeptical.

The two sources have different orders for the bottom half of the lineup, which is not a big deal. Mike Yastrzemski will face off, as he has in recent years, against righties, while Luis Matos lines up against lefties. Matos hasn’t yet figured out how to get his excellent contact skills and good wheels working in the major leagues, but he’s still young.

The rotation has three big question marks in the middle. Old Justin Verlander has allowed two homers in 11 innings, but has struck out nine while walking just two. Robbie Ray has been electric, striking out 17 in nine innings, allowing one homer and no walks. His price is going up. Jordan Hicks has only pitched four innings so far, but has said he gained weight and strength in order have more durability this year as a starter.

Padres:

The lineup is mostly set, except for left field and DH. MLB has Connor Joe and Jason Heyward divvying those two positions up, maybe because Jose Iglesias is still not on the roster. But Iglesias was incredible last year against lefties and while he hasn’t done much so far this spring, that’s at least partly because he only signed a week ago. Joe and Heyward should end up splitting time in left field, with Iglesias at least DHing against lefties.

The front four in the rotation are set, but Randy Vasquez, Matt Waldron, Kyle Hart, and Stephen Kolek are competing for the last rotation slot. None of the group are drawing expert league attention, though Kyle Hart’s Fedde-like rejuvenation last year in Korea should not be overlooked. I would take a flyer on him.

Rockies:

The two sources have Ryan McMahon and Thairo Estrada flipped, one batting second the other batting fifth. That may be a function of the way the pitcher they’re expected to be facing throws.

Roster Resource has Nolan Jones platooning with Kyle Farmer. Jones is the only hitter in the starting lineup with a projected above-average ability to create runs. In their careers Farmer is slightly better than Jones against righties, but I think the Rocks would be crazy to take at bats away from Jones, unless he crashes-and-burns again.

The Rockies rotation doesn’t matter.

AL West

Angels:

Both resources have Mike Trout and Yoan Moncada in the lineup. This may be true on Opening Day, but what are the odds for the season? The only interesting prospect in the system potentially ready to play is Christian Moore, is by reputation is a weak second baseman with a good bat. He has a chance to make the club because Luis Rengifo is nursing a hammy.

Roster Resource shows Nolan Schanuel platooning with NRI J.D. Davis. The funny thing is that over their careers JD Davis has been a better hitter both ways than Schanuel, while last year Schanuel was better both ways because Davis’s season was a disaster. Davis had a few good years back in the day, but while I’d rather have someone with more power, Schanuel gets on base and puts the ball in play with lots of contact. I’d play him.

Kevin Newman, Mr. Innocuous, will be filling in for Zach Neto until Neto returns from 9/2024 shoulder surgery in mid to late April. Tim Anderson, former batting champ, is in camp and after a terrible 2024 is doing fine.

Tyler Anderson and Yusei Kikuchi are the staff’s frontline guys. Jose Soriano and Kyle Hendricks will try to hold down the fort. And Jack Kochanowicz and Reid Detmers are battling for the last rotation slot. Both have been sharp this spring and will have opportunities to dislodge whoever is ahead of them. I like Detmers if he gets enough of a chance.

Astros:

Isaac Paredes didn’t have to move to second base to make room for Bregman at third and Jose Altuve still moved to left field. Which makes sense, because Altuve was the game’s worst second baseman last year and Mauricio Dubon is a defensive plus wherever he plays. With the bat? Not so much.

The lineup both resources project have one left-handed bat in them. That would be Yordan Alvarez, batting third and DHing. If that stands, Jon Singleton and Ben Gamel will get plenty of pinch-hitting opportunities.

For now, the rotation is set and potentially very good if Ronel Blanco can continue making magic, Spencer Arrighetti’s sinking fastball gets swings and misses, and dark-horse throw-in in the Kyle Tucker trade, Hayden Wesneski, takes off the way I think he might. They have Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers behind them coming back from injury if anyone doesn’t work out.

Athletics:

Apart from the challenge of whether to call them Oakland, Sacramento, Las Vegas, or just Athletics, all of which matters in alphabetical ordering, this is a once bad team that has the potential to have a pretty good offense this year. The top of the lineup is set and will be fine if Lawrence Butler and Brent Rooker hit again.

And Shea Langelier, Tyler Sodestrom, and Zach Gelof have the potential to be above average, too. That’s what Roster Resource thinks. MLB has Miguel Andujar ahead of Gelof on Opening Day, but in both lists Andujar is platooning with Seth Brown. Brown sees the bulk of the at bats there. Roster Resource has them playing left field with Brent Rooker DHing, as he did all last year, but that was due to an injury. He should qualify as an OFer pretty quickly this year.

Luis Urias and Gio Urshela are both right-handed, but Urias is the better defender and struggles against righties, so Urshela may get the bigger number of plate appearances.

The team invested in starters as they move to a ballpark with much less foul ground, and now have a handful of pitchers, including Joey Estes, Mitch Spence, JT Ginn, and Hogan Harris, battling it out of the last spot. Any of that group could grow into some value, but from this vantage none has fantasy value this year.

Mariners:

Plenty of apparent rock-em sock-em at the top of the Mariners lineup, though they didn’t produce last year as a group. How their season goes will depend on whether Victor Robles repeats, Julio Rodriguez finally breaks out, Cal Raleigh is Cal Raleigh, and Randy Arozarena captures the dynamic productivity of his youth. After that things get jiggy.

Luke Raley hits righties but not lefties. Rowdy Tellez, an NRI, hits righties and lefties okay, but Donovan Solano hits lefties a lot, just not that hard.

Jorge Polanco is a switch-hitter, but he hits righties more, while Dylan Moore hits righties less.

Their rotation when intact is one of the best in the game, but George Kirby is sidelined with a sore shoulder. There is no apparent physical damage, he’s been given a shot and is expected back in April. His replacement, Emerson Hancock, is not worth rostering.

Rangers:

The top of the lineup is solid, though when the club faces lefties Joc Pederson will give way to NRI Kevin Pillar, freshly back from retirement, or Leody Taveras, who might also be spelling Evan Carter, who has had recurring back issues but seems to be okay now. Except he’s not hitting a bit in camp.

The rest of the lineup is set, with decent power, as long as they stay healthy. Which usually means an IL stint for Corey Seager, giving Josh Smith a chance.

Roster Resource rightly has Jacob deGrom listed as the fifth starter. He’ll be babied to start the season, which might affect his win opportunities. Cody Bradford went down this week with elbow soreness, and is expected back later in April. Tyler Mahle has battled pain and appears to be on track to start the season. This could be a strong rotation in front of a strong lineup, but it could also go south in hurry.

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Sincerely,

Thanks for reading. The Master Sheets are after the paywall, now, with a more complete update complete March 13th.