NEWS YOU CAN LOSE
J.D. Davis took the Giants to arbitration, submitting a figure of $6.9M to the team’s $6.55M. A difference of $350K. It turns out the team submitted one offer shortly before the deadline for $6.44M, a kind of take-it-or-leave-it approach that led to arbitration. Davis won the arbitration but has now been released after the Giants signed Matt Chapman.
Much has been made of the fact that by releasing Davis ahead of Opening Day the Giants owe him only 30 days of severance pay. According to the current CBA, if the two parties had settled before the arbitration award was made, the contract would have been guaranteed. This suggests that Davis and his reps made a mistake. But major league teams have adopted a negotiating policy called file-and-trial, meaning that after the two sides file figures the MLB teams will not settle. They insist on the hearing. While they say file-and-trial is meant to keep players from fishing for filing mistakes and settle first, the Giants apparent pressure for Davis to arbitrate may have been designed to get out of their so-called arbitrated contract.
Davis said that after trading figures he would have gladly signed for the Giants figure, which was more than the sole offer they made to him, but that wasn’t an option. The right of teams to release a player after arbitration seems to turn on this phrase in the CBA: The player has “failed to exhibit sufficient skill or competitive ability.” That doesn’t seem to apply in the Davis case, but the section of the CBA is not clear, so maybe it does. If Davis doesn’t get a competitive offer from another team soon we may see some legal fireworks.
I watched Trevor Rogers pitch against the Mets yesterday. I try not to change expectations based on Spring Training games, but every rule should have some exceptions. Rogers was terrific in 2021 but has struggled with injuries since. If he’s healthy and throwing the way he was yesterday, he could be a substantial surprise this year though he’s likely to be innings-limited.
A reader asked about Kerry Carpenter, who had a solid second half last year and appears to be batting cleanup for the Tigers this season. He only has four plate appearances so far this Spring because of hamstring issues. He missed time in the first half last year, too, so durability may be an issue. What is surely an issue is a .643 career OPS against lefty pitchers. That’s platoonable from a corner outfielder/DH if it persists, but note that he didn’t have extra trouble with lefty pitchers in the minors. He has a lot of bust potential, but he is also in a good position hitting in the middle of a top-heavy Detroit offense and he does hit righties with power, so there is also breakout potential. If he stays healthy and hits lefties enough 30+ homers are a possibility. For me, that makes him an average hitter in deep leagues, and about replacement level in 15-team mixed.
PERIMETER ROOKIES
This is not an exhaustive list, but some names we haven’t previously talked about who may make an impact this year:
Cade Horton pitched just 27 innings in Double-A last year, but he could advance quickly if he continues to show the control/command he did last year while stepping up to tougher competition. I’m wary of hot young arms that succeed in the minors despite some control issues, but Horton’s stuff is good enough that he shouldn’t be ignored. The Cubs may give him a chance.
Young Jackson Merrill was blocked at SS by Xander Bogaerts, but he’s been playing everyday this spring in the outfield, mostly in centerfield, where the Padres have a need. He’s also hitting, with a .931 OPS thus far. In many leagues Merrill, if he makes the Opening Day squad, will qualify at SS. He’s young, so they may go slow, but they’re also needy, so they may not. I’ve bumped up his bid price.
Tampa Bay has a lot of players and it was hard to see how Curtis Mead might fit in, but Jonny DeLuca’s broken hand and Josh Lowe’s hip problems (he hasn’t seen game time yet, though that’s expected soon) could open up an opportunity by opening some holes. Mead hit his first homer on a shoestring high pitch on the outside corner on Sunday. Link to X post with video.
The Pirates Jared Jones has only pitched seven innings so far this spring, but they’ve been effective innings and there is talk he could make the team’s rotation. There’s rookie pitcher risk here, especially since the Pirates are still a bad team, but if he finds a useful offspeed pitch his fastball and slider will shine.
In Minneapolis Brooks Lee, a top prospect, is blocked by Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis, healthy guys who never get hurt.
The Athletics Darell Hernaiz is playing shortstop and third base this spring and seems to have a good shot at making the team. He spent half of 2023 in Triple-A and his .300 batting average doesn’t impress in the PCL, but he makes enough contact with good defensive skills that if he earns a job on a bad team like the Oaklands he could help a fantasy team.
A lot of folks are talking about the Cubs Owen Caissie, who hit 22 homers in Double-A last year, but also struck out more than 30 percent of his plate appearances. This spring he’s put up a 1.197 OPS in 29 OA, which doesn’t mean anything and yet can’t be ignored. He’s not going to make the team out of camp, but if he makes more contact his expected promotion next year could be accelerated.
All of these guys should be on your radar, even though it’s possible that none of them will have a major league job coming out of camp.
SPRING TRAINING HOME RUN LEADERS
HOUSEKEEPING
When Will I See You Again Dept.: Next one is the Thursday update.
I’ve posted the Historical Top Players by Position charts after the Paywall.
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