TODAY’S NEWS
Mike Clevinger was accused of some serious things over the winter by the mother of his child. He denied the charges, said such things did not happen, and cooperated with MLB’s investigation. That investigation is now over and he is not being disciplined. MLB is offering support services to Clevinger and his family, so clearly something happened, but apparently it didn’t meet the abuse threshold of the CBA.
Which means Mike Clevinger goes from being a guy who might be suspended for a few months or longer to a member of the White Sox rotation this year. The key thing about Clevinger is that he was a very good pitcher until he had a second TJ in November 2020. Last season he was something of a shadow of his former self, throwing fewer strikeouts and getting hit a bunch more. Is that fortune going forward? It’s certainly possible, but the encouraging thing is that while he’s lost a couple of clicks on his fastball from 2019 and 2020, he’s throwing as hard as he did in 2018. He just isn’t getting the Ks. Blame his slider, which before the injury was a weapon and last year was not. I’m not suggesting you should assume he’s going to find that pitch again, best to plan as if he isn’t, but the chance that he will gives him some healthy upside this year. His price is surely going to go up some, now that the playing time will likely be there, but for now he’s going for about $5. That’s a price I would pay. PICK
The Rockies signed Mike Moustakas this week. It’s a cheap deal. They pay the major league minimum (well, $720K, not cheap in the real world) and the Reds pick up the rest of his $20M salary for 2023. The Reds would also pick up the 2024 buyout of $4M.
Moustakas is coming off three years of sub-par performance, though it’s probably better to just say dismal. Injuries limited Moustakas to 491 plate appearances the last two years, but he says he is now healthy. He is also now 35 years old, which might start to be a problem for an athlete with somewhat limited athleticism. But Moustakas always looked overmatched as he was coming up through the minors, yet at each level he would regroup and become a solid and valued player. That’s the basis for hope now that he can bounce back. It is not clear whether the Rocks are looking for him to take over at third and move Garrett Hampson to second (replacing the perhaps out-for-the-season Brendan Rodgers) or to resume his adventures at second that started with the Reds in 2019. At this point, he’s a scratch-off lottery ticket, doesn’t cost much but is unlikely to have a huge payday (but could have a nice one). I’ve always admired his grit. PICK
The Rangers signed the relief pitcher Will Smith last Saturday. Smith was terrible last year for the Braves, but came around after being traded to the Astros at the deadline. He was a closer (Giants) in 2019 and for the Braves in 2021, so if he truly is right there is some chance that he could fill that role again. On the other hand, his second-half improvement last year had much more to do with regaining his lost control than returning to his days as a big strikeout guy. With Jose LeClerc and Jonathan Hernandez ahead of him anything is possible. PICK
FIRST BASE TIERS
TOP TIER
Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt represent the past, but they’re still going strong. The old Branch Rickey saw, “Get out a year early rather than staying in a year late,” kind of applies, but they both played so well last year that you (or someone in your league) will give them another chance. Pete Alonso has hit more homers than any other major leaguer in the past three years. And Vlad Jr. could vie for the Triple Crown, this year or next. Or the one after that. One reason to try to get a top first baseman is that the next level is so much less.
I’ve got Matt Olson, Nathaniel Lowe, Jose Abreu, Rhys Hoskins, and Vinnie Pasquantino in that next group. I like Lowe and Pasquantino a lot, but for youngsters both are decidedly old, which isn’t a good predictor of longevity. Hoskins has pretty consistently disappointed, while Abreu bounced back last year, but can he maintain that pace this year at his age? In Houston he’ll have a supportive atmosphere, at least.
THE TEENS
I’m higher on Ty France than most, and I don’t have a theory why that is. That is why others are down on him. He earned $22 last year and $24 the year before that. He’s a contact hitter, he’s not likely to hit 30 homers, but he is likely to hit .275, which is fairly rare these days. First base isn’t the armory of bangers it is imagined to be, so what’s to worry? At a fair price France seems like a fairly safe bet. I worry most about Andrew Vaughn, whose power hasn’t come on as expected, but that means he profiles similarly to France and is four years younger. There is room for improvement.
For the most part, this is a group without much upside. Brandon Drury had a career year last year, Luis Arraez won the batting title, CJ Cron and Josh Bell are what they are. Which leaves us Ryan Mountcastle, Jose Miranda, and Triston Casas to cover the youth. Mountcastle hit the ball harder last year with more barrels and got worse results, making him a good bet to bounce back power-wise. Miranda sacrifices power for contact, at least so far, which makes him profile more like France and Vaughn than Mountcastle. That could be OK. And Casas is exciting, because we don’t know. He’s having a good spring and is expected to grow into a lot of power. Will that come this year? At this price I’ll take my chances, especially in OBP leagues.
BREAKOUTS
The decline of expectations for Spencer Torkelson is nearly as confounding as the utter confidence last year that he would be a superstar immediately. The book on Torkelson was written pretty quickly, and he was fed a variety of breaking and offspeed pitches that kept him offbalance. Maybe he won’t figure out a way to adapt, maybe he’s just not athletic enough to make it work, he’s off to a slow start in spring training, but given his pedigree I’m willing to take another chance (at a lower price). Breakouts come from the class of the post-hype failures. Matt Mervis has similar issues with athleticism, and a bigger swing that might be even more prone to big league pitcher exploitation. But he has real power. Still, he may start the year in Triple-A working on ways to get to it, which makes him something of a sneaky breakout candidate.
THE BARREL BOTTOM
Sentimentally, Joey Votto is a favorite here, but at 40 and coming off a bad year it’s hard to see a revival for fantasy purposes (even though his 2021 was solid, and Albert Pujols rewrote the book). My other sentimental faves are the ex-Mets, JD Davis and Dominic Smith, both of whom showed at times that they could hit, and at other times failed to do so. No doubt defensive issues didn’t help them. Or ending up behind Pete Alonso on the depth chart. But in fresh circumstances maybe they’ll get another chance to shine. Defensive issues did in Bobby Dalbec, too, but so far no change of scene for him.
TIL TOMORROW
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This would be a good time to gift your fantasy baseball playing friends:
I’ll leave you with this scary and delightful catch:
Link to Rotoman’s Sheet after the paywall.
Sincerely,
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