NEWS OF THE BREAK
Since last Friday there has been a little news:
Younger Alex Wood. Photo: All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA
I don’t think Alex Wood’s signing across the Bay makes much of a difference for him. He’s always been a good pitcher with durability issues. The big problem is that last year he wasn’t all that good. He struggled with injuries again, especially a bad hamstring and back pain, while he struck out far fewer than ever and walked many more. The Oakland Coliseum plays much like Oracle Park, so there’s little help there.
Ross Stripling is also moving from Oracle to Oakland. He also spent time on the IL last summer with back pain, and had a career-low strikeout rate last season, though he threw plenty of strikes. His career-best for innings was the 134.3 he threw in 2022, a year that a minuscule HR/FB rate helped him immensely. Last year he allowed 2.02 per 9 innings, which is much more his career norm.
Gregory Santos was traded to the Mariners after a successful year with the White Sox. He throws lots of sliders and was effective last year. He’s also been hurt a lot. He should figure in the setup mix with a chance at a fair number of Holds as long as he’s able to throw 99 mph.
Dominic Fletcher was traded to the White Sox where he might see at bats. He’s a contact hitter without much power or base-stealing ability apparent. He could end up platooning with Kevin Pillar, who signed a minor-league deal late last week with the Pale Hose. Pillar has more power but is unlikely to keep up with Fletcher batting average-wise. These are AL-only player to settle on in the endgame if things go wrong.
The Dodgers traded Caleb Ferguson to the Yankees yesterday. He’s the second lefty reliever the LA team has sent to the Yanks this offseason, which is 100 percent of the lefty relievers the Yanks have right now. Ferguson should get plenty of work.
The Brewers signed Jakob Junis to replace Corbin Burnes in their rotation. Just kidding. I’ve always liked Junis because of his control and his slider, but he was never able to add an effective third pitch and his heater has never wowwed anyone. He worked mostly in relief last year and added velocity (a little wow) and strikeouts, though his fastball was still hittable. A return to the rotation seems like a mistake, but maybe paired with DL Hall the Brewers figure they can get seven innings combined from the pair every fifth day, with shorter stints on their throw days. That’s my idea but the Milwaukee team is welcome to it.
THE THREE DEGREES (Not the third degree)
The Gamble and Huff sound is utterly distinctive and infectious. It makes good listening while going through the top third basemen list.
The NFBC is treating Jose Ramirez as the top dog at third base, but like me they see him fading some. The end of the first round is still very respectable, but it means there is less air between the veteran and the Hot Corner Twins Austin Riley and Rafael Devers (though Riley was better than Devers last year). Ramirez struck out the same number of times he walked in 2023, suggesting he’s only getting smarter.
Gunnar Henderson is just a cut below this top group this year, but there’s a good chance he could get better right away.
We discussed the ridiculous NFBC ADP of Elly De La Cruz in the shortstop roundup.
Alec Bohm has earned $24 and $22 in the last two years. He’s going in the NFBC for the equivalent of $15. He walked more and struck out less last year, plus he hit with more power, though he didn’t hit the ball quite as hard or as high. Letting someone else get him for $17 would be a mistake.
Royce Lewis, the Byron Buxton of third base, is polarizing. Since 2019, when he had 566 plate appearances in High-A and Double-A, his best annual total was last year’s 290 in Triple-A and the Majors. But it isn’t like once he reached the majors everything was fine. His season started late after rehabbing his torn-up knee, was interrupted in July and August by an oblique injury, and his season ended early with a strained hamstring. He did make it back each time, but with all the lost time his season was worth $14. The NFBC is paying him $25 to play for them. People used to pay for Buxton the same way, figuring he’d be healthy all year someday. I think guys with long histories of a variety of IL visits should be discounted.
I’m not sure what to do with this next group.
NFBC is the pick converted to a dollar value. 2023 is what the hitter earned last year.
I probably have Max Muncy two clicks too high. But Nolan Gorman? You should have to pay for a little growth from a 24 year old. Not a lot, he strikes out too much, but some.
Same goes for Maikel Garcia, though he’s a much better hitter than Gorman. I would be very happy to pay $12 for him.
We pretty much agree on Jake Burger, Noelvi Marte, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Isaac Paredes, though the three veterans bested their bids last year. Each has his own issues, which suggest a little caution is in order. Marte is the comer, though maybe not long playing as a third baseman, and while he looked awfully good in Cincinnati last year he still has to prove himself with the bat.
Junior Caminero is a gut-check rookie bet. I’m a little surprised I’m higher on him than the NFBC sharps are, but we’re close enough for government work.
Jorge Polanco’s price hasn’t moved since his trade to Seattle. I think it will rise as fears about his health are allayed, or until he gets hurt. Count me in here until then.
Take the discount on Eugenio Suarez.
Ryan McMahon is who he is and everybody knows it.
Which brings us to Brett Baty. He was supposed to be a big-power good-fielding third baseman but he failed to impress last year. First off, his fielding wasn’t all that good, plus he hit a ton of grounders and not that many homers. So, a bust, but not yet a devastating one, I think. But attention should be paid if the market is relegating him to a platoon role and a risky one. I’m downgrading him a few dollars, and looking at him as a late target at CI in NL only. In a 15-team mixed, he’s better as a reserve. If he struggles during Spring Training we’ll revisit.
HOUSEKEEPING
After the signature, below, you’ll find behind the paywall links to the Position X Position lists, which are seeing small adjustments as I go through them.
When I’m done with position reviews next week I’ll post the final updated Pos X Pos charts for subscribers, reflecting the changes.
When Will I See You Again Dept.: We’ll look at the rest of the third basemen on Thursday, probably. I have a day of appointments around the city tomorrow, I’m afraid. If I get back earlier than I expect I’ll give it a shot to get it out tomorrow afternoon.
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