The Sound of One Hand Scraping

A Cavalcade of Non Roster Invites and Indeterminate Injury News

NEWSY NOTES

Trey Mancini, NRI with the Diamondbacks: He sat out last year rather than play in the minors and was no great shakes with the Cubs in 2023. In Arizona, he could be a platoonist with Josh Naylor, who has a .673 career OPS versus lefties. Mancini’s is .777. But to get that opportunity he’ll first have to show he can return to his 2022 form

A Clevinger simulation. Photo: D. Benjamin Miller

Mike Clevinger, signed with the White Sox to a minor league contract: He had neck surgery last July and will get a shot to make the White Sox this year, as he did last year. Then, he only made four starts for them before being sent down, and four minor league starts before he hit the surgery table. There’s always hope for a former ace who has struggled, though not all such reclamations work out. The Pale Hose say they’re not committed to him starting, especially if he ends up being more durable working out of the pen. $1

Ross Stripling, signed with the Royals to a minor league contract: The former ace swingman is coming off two dismal years. Each of those rough patches can be explained by bad luck. In 2023 a lot of fly balls left the yard, second highest rate in MLB, while last year he allowed a high BABIP and baseball’s worst LOB%, by a lot. Which isn’t a guarantee he has a good season coming, but there’s a chance his prospects are better than you’d think at first glance. Waiver wire.

Ryan Yarbrough, signed with the Blue Jays to a minor league contract: He pitched effectively for the Blue Jays last year and is back under their wing, at least for now. His K/9 rate last year was fifth worst in baseball, though notably Ross Stripling’s was worst, but he didn’t walk many while with the Jays. He’ll need to do more of that to help Toronto this year.

Andrew Heaney, signed with the Pirates: He’s been durable the last two years in Texas, and if he wasn’t a big fantasy earner he put up needed innings without being too hurtful. His velocity was down last year for the second year in a row, but he walked fewer hitters along the way. He’s always looked like he might have a big year, but so far he’s had half of one, for the Dodgers in 2022. Keep hope alive. $1

Manny Margot, invited to camp by the Brewers: He’s not the elite centerfielder he once was, and last year he fell to a .626 OPS, which does not earn anyone’s confidence he can make the team unless there are injuries.

Matt Moore, signed by the Red Sox to a minor league contract: After two excellent years pitching out of the pen, he stumbled last year in-season and ended it early with a forearm strain. He has a good shot to make the Red Sox but will not likely work in high-leverage situations.

Rhett Lowder, shut down for now: He’s missed the last week with elbow soreness, and is expected to begin throwing today. The Reds are saying he could be ready for opening day, and I’m sure that’s not a lie, but some so-called minor ST injuries don’t resolve as quickly as is hoped. He had a great ERA in six starts for the Reds last year, but walked 14 in 30 innings pitched and has only six innings pitched in Triple-A. He’s a guy to take a flyer on cheap, with skills that could make him a must-roster starter anytime he’s healthy. But chances are he’s going to spend time in Triple-A and get ready, not necessarily this year.

Sean Manaea, oblique strain: He’s shut down for a couple of weeks and the hope is he’ll be back in April. Could happen. Of the potential replacements for Manaea and Frankie Montas, Griffin Canning and Tylor Megill strike out enough hitters to be worth an endgame flyer.

Nick Madrigal, fractured shoulder: Should miss “a long time,” his manager says of his injury. That increases Luisangel Acuña’s chances, which his manager said would be “huge,” even before Madrigal went down. Madrigal remains a $0, but Acuna goes to $4.

Travis Jankowski, signed by the Cubs to a minor league deal: Had a terrible year last year with the Rangers, with a .508 OPS, and he’s never had any fantasy value apart from his legs. If he somehow gains a major league roster spot and you’re in deep need of an NL only outfielder, the chance he steals might be worth a short-term waiver acquisition.

ASK ROTOMAN: Who Do You Freeze?

Hail Rotoman!

I have three cheap keepers

Jake Meyers 1: Currently starting center Houston. Last 2 years earned 12-6. your est 8

Gio Urshela 2: righty platoon Athletics. Last 4 years 9-7-19-12. your est 8

Ramon Laureano 4: righty platoon Baltimore. Last 5 years 11-8-11-15-10. your est 10

In what order do you value (or would you not keep some). And how do a few cheap fillers who tend to earn a little extra compare to a couple of toppers for good second-tier pitchers who you est at $16 and $18. Are they more or less valuable?

“Julius Sneezer”

Dear Mr. Sneezer:

First off, I want to discuss a bit of a difference in perspective. You see, the “your est 8” and similar statements in your question indicate the value of my projections for these guys. That, I think, is a fair estimation of what they might do, but not my estimate of what you should pay.

For Jake Meyers, my bid price is $5. Last year he went for $7. He did earn $12 last year, in career high plate appearances, but he was terrible against right-handed pitching, which he faced about 65 percent of his plate appearances. The Astros are weak in the outfield, but they would be remiss not to find a regular platoon partner for Meyers and limit his at bats against righties. So, I’m bidding less. On the other hand, for $1 you can’t really go wrong.

For Gio Urshela, my bid price is $3. Last year he went for $7. He’s a platoonist for the Athletics, which could prove to be a good situation in Sacramento for hitters, but as a hitter last year he was atrocious against his natural platoon side lefties, and barely passable against righties. He has little power, too, but plays good enough defense he finds a job every year, at least so far. As a $2 keep you can hardly go wrong.

For Ramon Laureano, my bid price is $4. Last. year he went for $8. Your freeze price is $4. He earned $11 last year. The situation in Baltimore is crowded, but if he can play enough centerfield to end up platooning with Cedric Mullins (he was very good versus lefties last year) he could be a nice keep at $4. He also might get cut and not find a good situation, but he has the most upside of your low-rent guys.

To the question of whether a cheap keep like this is better than a topper on a $16 pitcher, the answer is that it helps to know your league. A topper, for those who don’t know, is the right to buy a player you had last year for $1 more after the bidding stops. Some leagues, including the league Mr. Sneezer and I play in, have a topper option.

I know your league Mr. Sneezer, and I know that the bulk of draft inflation goes to pitching. Especially mid-tier starters. In your league, which is our league, we have about 15 percent inflation and probably two-thirds goes to the pitching side, which means that a $16 pitcher at 20 percent inflation should go on auction day for about $20. You could have him for $21! That can be a tough button to push.

A starter can do better than that, you could earn a profit, but by definition, buying a player with a topper is paying market value.

So, that means I should keep the cheap hitters, right? You might ask that, and here’s where it gets interesting. I added the average prices for those three guys last year in startup expert leagues to their descriptions above, and they went for a good deal more than you were able to buy them for in your/our league. That’s because, if you know your/our league, the group likes to bid aggressively on high-end hitters and all kinds of starting pitchers, and the money to do that comes from the low-end hitters and pitchers. It has to come from somewhere.

So, while my bid prices for your guys might be $5, $3, and $4, and your freeze prices are $1, $2, and $4, it’s possible that these guys could go for $1, $2, and $4 again in your/our league. In which case, you’ll be buying at par again.

The bottom line is that all your options here are low impact, even the pitchers, unless one of these guys has a breakout season. Which is unlikely but not impossible. As another Julius once said:

Fortune, which has a great deal of power in other matters but especially in fantasy baseball, can bring about great changes in a situation through very slight forces.

In other words, make your picks, follow your heart, and hope for the best.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

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HOUSEKEEPING

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Sincerely,

Thanks for reading. The Master Sheets are after the paywall, now…