The Price of Everything
And maybe the value, too
THE MONTHLY
Welcome to the fourth entry in our six-part monthly fantasy baseball pricing series for 2025.
You can access the spreadsheet with player prices by clicking here.
The basic idea is that comparing how your players are earning (or not earning) to what you paid for them can be a useful way to evaluate how your team is doing.
For instance, if you have a lot of overachievers, guys earning more than you expected, you probably are doing well in the standings. The question you then have to ask is: Should I get rid of the overachievers and sell high? Or should I hold onto them because I think they’ve moved up to a new level?
It’s hard to judge how a player is doing based on raw stats, because an individual hit or homer or save has a value relative to how many of them the league has produced. Back in the early days of roto analysis, someone came up with a handy rule of thumb, that “a homer is worth a buck.” If your $27 player only projects out to 20 homers, you’re not getting your money’s worth, according to this benchmark.
That was helpful when we didn’t know better, but in the 40 odd years or so since then we’ve learned better. These lists are one way to tap into that learning.
HEADLINE BATTLE
The top two hitters with the most net profits this year so far are Kyle Stowers and Nick Kurtz. I’m a long-time Mekons fan, so I was leaning toward a headline pun off of the title of their excellent 1988 elpee “So Good It Hurts.” Here’s one of the best cuts:
But to be honest, Nick Kurtz is running second to Kyle Stowers, whose name evokes that great Oakland band of the 1970s, Tower of Power.
So, So Good It Kurtz loses to:
STOWERS OF POWER
A look at the hitters with the biggest profits, with Stowers and Kurtz at the top, tells you who is driving unexpectedly powerful offenses.
A few of these guys were expected to be good, but not this good, while most of the rest had issues with their roles or their talent.
I put Stowers in the latter group, and right now I’m feeling foolish. He’s hitting the ball hard and barreling at a near 20 percent clip, plus he’s being much more selective and striking out much less. All of that points to real growth, but it isn’t churlish to point out that he’s making contact less than 70 percent of the time, so while his xBA is a presentable .283, his BABIP of .364 and his low-ish contact rate suggest his average should be a lot lower.
Stowers’ power is real, don’t fade the Stowers of Power, but maybe don’t expect so much from Kyle Kontact going forward.
WHO ARE THE BEST HITTERS SO FAR
Probably who you expected, at least until you get to PCA.
WHO HAS STUNK?
There are two ways to look at this. Who has been the worst?
Joc Pederson has been the worst!
And who has disappointed the most:
THE THREE MONTHS, BY EOVALDI
A totally different groove, one that delivers rather than attacks.
The issue with Nathan Eovaldi has been his durability. When he can pitch he mixes a heater, a cutter, and a splitter, all with great control, with a fine change up, keeping hitters off balance and out of time. The last time he did that for a full season’s worth of starts was 2021, and he’s already missed a month this year with a triceps strain.
The Rangers are well aware of this and will treat him tenderly down the stretch if they can. I’m not predicting he’s going to go down again, but Eovaldi owners should enjoy him while they can.
Lots of bargains on this list, including 10 pitchers who weren’t drafted at the start of the season. That’s free loot.
The Top Pitchers list is a little different:
Jacob deGrom is the painful name for me here. In recent years I kept finding excuses and reasons to roster him, sometimes at great expense, only to have him get hurt time and again. I was on him this year, too, if his price was $9 or $10, but at $18 I thought he was too risky. Those who took the risk this time have been rewarded.
PITCHING PAIN POINTS
The worst pitchers (are in Colorado):
But you don’t have to roster them. Some of the biggest net losers had to be rostered.
Though injuries have played a part in the biggest losers.
HOUSEKEEPING
I’ve gotten notes from some subscribers who have seen their subscriptions expire recently. I want to assure you that this is part of the natural cycle of dealing with subscriptions the way Alex and I have it set up, thanks to a lack of flexibility on Substack’s part.
If you subscribed through Alex’s Pattonandco.com site, you’ll get a notice that your Rotoman Substack has expired. This won’t mean anything until January, when I start posting material behind the paywall here. Until then everything in this Substack is free. And your Pattonandco.com membership runs until Valentines Day 2026.
Come January you’ll be able to renew at PattonandCo.com and you’ll be added to the subscriber list here, eligible for the PDF version of Rotoman’s Guide and access to that stuff that lives behind the paywall.
If you’re a Subscriber here, at Rotoman’s Substack, you should be auto renewed at some point over the next four months, unless you turn off the auto-renew. In both cases, if you want, you’ll receive all issues (which will be free), which will give you plenty of reminders why you might want to pay again for the 2026 season.
Or not. In either case, thanks for being here.
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Good luck with your pennant races.
Sincerely,
