COLE RAGANS
Photo: Minda Haas Kuhlmann - https://www.flickr.com/photos/mindahaas/53063037130/
I’ve been asked more about the Royals newest ace, Cole Ragans, than any other pitcher this year. I wrote this in The Guide:
I’m not committed to my $9 as I start writing this up. The NFBC visionaries are taking Ragans with the 111th pick. That’s the dollar equivalent of $19!!! That’s based on 12 starts for the Royals, not a team known for suddenly turning struggling starters into fantasy gold.
But those 12 starts were very good. Ragans’ K%-BB% was 21.7 after he arrived in Kansas City, up from 9.5 when he was in Texas. His hard-hit rate fell from 43.3 percent to 33.7 percent. Those are palpable improvements, to be sure.
Still, in his last four starts, he walked 16 in 24 innings, a throwback to his Arlington days, and after seven consecutive Quality Starts only one of the last four qualified for that derided measure. So, he was excellent in seven starts, not so great in the final four. My point isn’t to deride Ragans, or at least not too much. My point is that at $19 you’re paying for him as if he IS Joe Musgrove, or as if you think he has a 25-percent chance of being Corbin Burnes this year. (And I’m not sure Corbin Burnes has a 25-percent chance of being Corbin Burnes this year.)
Still, I’m not only committed to trying my best to price players, but I also have to bend to the forces of the market. If I price Ragans $10 less than the market is paying for him, that’s $10 I’m assigning to other players erroneously, too. So, let me see. Ragans’ worst draft position in the last month has been No. 174 (his best has been No. 76, worth $23!!!) which has the functional equivalence of $14, so I’m raising my bid to $13. I think they’re all crazy, let me keep them in front of me.
HORN OF PLENTY
The starting pitchers in the $6 to $9 basket are a mixed bag, to mix metaphorical containers. Many have promise, while some promise at least a taste of consistent not-badness. Unlike the cheap pitchers, who no one has faith in, there is some bidding for these guys. Someone has a hunch, or at least a glimmer of hope that things will work out for them.
Here are last year’s such fellows:
Some wild successes and some miserable failures. Only Marcus Stroman and Jon Gray kinda performed as they were paid. What about this year’s batch? My first pass is:
Chris Sale’s ADP is like a $16 bid. Unlike Ragans, Sales has a projected K%-BB% higher than .20, and he has a long-ago history of great success. His problem is that such success has eluded him in recent years. Sales himself is saying that he’s healthy this year for the first time since 2018, when he posted a 2.11 ERA and .86 WHIP. He only pitched 102.7 innings last year and will be 35 years old the first week of this season. He’ll be supported by a strong offense and defense, and backed by a deep bullpen, so there’s hope he’ll be successful, but that history is a noose.
I’m trailing behind the NFBCers on Cristian Javier, too. He was a faddish pick last year and went for $23, then after a solid April he struggled to earn $1 on the year. I’m expecting something of a bounce-back, but I’m reluctant to expect too much. There is too much to lose too quickly if his price goes up.
The Rays, who do everything right, picked up Ryan Pepiot from the Dodgers, who rarely do anything wrong. Two contradictory ideas that cannot hold. The NFBC has him at $13, same as Javier. He was effective last year once he returned from a spring oblique injury, showing terrific control and some swing-and-miss. He also had outrageous good fortune, which shows up in his low ERA and so he still has a lot to prove. He could easily earn that $13 bid price, but might also spend another season scuffling, hence my more modest bet.
Aaron Civale, another Ray, is priced at $12 by the NFBC. I’m okay with that, he earned $11 last year (and more than that in 2021 and 2022), but he’s never thrown more than 125 innings.
We (the NFBC and me) agree on Nick Lodolo, Kenta Maeda, and Marcus Stroman, in turn an aspiring ace, a recovering front-line starter, and an over-achieving control artist. Lodolo was spectacular in seven starts last year before a stress fracture sidelined him for the rest of the year. He was also spectacularly unlucky, if you count giving up a lot of hits on balls in play and homers on fly balls unlucky. That might be, but they also may not mean that. Still, lots of strikeouts and a decent walk rate can be built on if he can get healthy. He’s not currently in the Reds rotation.
I’m way under on Hunter Brown, who has a ton of talent, and Shane Baz, who is going to start the season on the IL in extended spring training and may not be back until July. I’ve trimmed his bid by a few dollars. Brown showed the foundation for future success last year, but is far from a sure thing to take the next step this year. I have him as a cheap keeper in my sort-of dynasty league, which is the way I like things.
I’m trailing behind the NFBC on Triston McKenzie and Reid Detmers, am close on Nestor Cortes, and am way out in front on Frankie Montas and Max Scherzer. Whatever. I’m a little bullish on McKenzie and Detmers, but don’t want to chase them. I would settle for Cortes here, but worry that he doesn’t have a lot of upside. Montas and Scherzer are on different trajectories (returning for Montas, leaving for Scherzer) but I’d be happy to go the $5 the NFBC is paying for them.
The NFBC is taking Nick Pivetta and Bryce Miller in the $13-$14 range. Pivetta escaped his modest career trajectory by moving into a hybrid relief-spot starter role and ended last season strong. Still, he had a 4.66 ERA as a starter, a 3.07 ERA as a reliever. I’m not bidding up a mediocre starter because he’s a good reliever. Bryce Miller on the other hand, pitches like a reliever while starting. He threw his fastball 66 percent of the time last year. My tepid bid is based on that history. He says he’s added a splitter this spring and that heater was good enough to carry him through much of last year. He earned $7 last year and maybe deserves a little raise, but $13 is too far.
Paul Skenes is considered the top pitching prospect currently, after pitching 6.7 innings of minor league ball last year, when he was the No. 1 pick overall out of LSU. He’s going to have limited innings and if he’s promoted rapidly he’s going to have to deal with hitters who are a lot better than most of Division I NCAA baseball. There’s a pretty good chance of a bust this year, but his fastball is so good, maybe not.
After turning down a $12M option (mutual) this past winter Mike Clevinger has languished on the FA market. There’s no reason to think he can’t repeat last season’s modest success after years of injury. There is also a slight reason to think he might do better. That’s if he moderates his ask enough to sign.
Gavin Williams is going in the NFBC at $14, though last year he earned $3. All agree he’s talented, but he comes with a worrisome injury history and an ongoing struggle with command. Plus, his strikeout numbers in the majors weren’t elite. He might get there, he’s young, but I don’t see any reason to bid him up going into this season.
I liked Brandon Pfaadt going into last season, but he was hit pretty hard right off the bat. That happens even with talented pitchers. He came back in the summer and was all right, but not a fantasy plus until the postseason. He impressed then, which I guess accounts for the NFBC’s optimistic bidding. I’m optimistic about him, too, at some point, but pinning it down with a real bid for this year is risky.
The Giants Kyle Harrison didn’t walk many in his seven starts in the majors last year, but he did allow eight homers in just 34.7 innings. And he walked 6.58/9 in Triple-A, which is a problem. He’s worth a flyer at this price, he has the potential to turn things around at the ripe old age of 23.
JACOB deGROM
My faith in Jacob deGrom has been tested and I’ve been left wanting. I believed in 2021 and didn’t quite get there. I thought 2022 would be the rebound, but it was less. Then, last year, I asked myself, why wouldn’t he stay healthy? Because, I guess was the right answer.
Here’s what I wrote in the Guide:
There was a news note last week that deGrom has started throwing. There is speculation that the Rangers are going to wind up deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle slowly so that they’re ready to go down the stretch as the team tries to defend its World Series title. It makes sense, though clearly any team would prefer to have these talented and expensive arms earlier to make sure those games in August and September matter. But if it’s the best they can do, it’s a plan.
That projection in The Guide is worth $17, but I no longer believe it’s worth guessing how truncated deGrom’s season will be. Others may disagree, deGrom’s been drafted as early as 238th in the NFBC, but his average tells the real story. Stash him away if you can, maybe spend a few bucks, but it’s better to pay little and be surprised than to pay a lot and end up with the expected injury.
COLE RAGANS PART 2
This isn’t strictly about Ragans, but it is about the theme that weaves through the analysis of this group of pitchers.
Because each has some spark that makes teams make multiple bids, it’s possible to get too far out ahead of the risk factors that are there, which is why these guys aren’t being bid up to $20.
Some of this group will earn big this year, but others are going to hurt you. If we really had an inkling which was who the bidding wouldn’t stop at $9. In other words, go lightly here. If you like a player, Lodolo or Pfaadt let’s say, and the bidding stalls at $6 or $7 take a shot. But it is generally not a good idea to push.
SELLING STUFF
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024, softcover book edition ($19.99), and Kindle edition ($9.99), are available at Amazon.
The PDF version ($12) is available by clicking here
Ron Shandler’s Fantasy Expert is available on Amazon now. I wrote the Foreword to this fun and intriguing look at the first twenty years of fantasy baseball’s history.
Les Leopold’s Wall Street’s War on Workers, about mass layoffs and how financialization undermines democracy, is out this week. I did a lot of the data work and was an editor.
HOUSEKEEPING
After the signature, below, you’ll find behind the paywall links to the Position X Position lists, which are seeing small adjustments as I go through them.
You will also find a link to the Excel spreadsheet with projections, prices, and position stuff. There should be an update sometime tomorrow.
When Will I See You Again Dept.: Friday, cheap starters. Coming soon: Historical Top 20s by Position
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