FRIDAY FUNDAY
Feeling frisky finally. Feeling fine.
I was looking at the cost-earnings scans and I thought that a look at the most profitable pitchers in the last five years might be interesting. My expectation was that the list would be filled with starters who had one spectacularly profitable year and didn’t have losing seasons the other years, and that is partly true. But there were other ways to make this list. Let’s count down the Top 10, with a fantasy angle for 2023.
Photo: Lisa Suender on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
Yusmeiro Petit, Free agent: Yusmeiro Petit had a terrific run as a reliever. Every year he would cost a dollar or sometimes three and every year he pitched well in relief, earning much more. Of course, a middle reliever isn’t paid like he’s going to consistently earn big bucks because he usually doesn’t. But that’s what made Petit special. He stumbled in Triple-A last year and was released in June, and didn’t latch on elsewhere. The end is probably near.
Chris Bassitt, Toronto: He didn’t have the dazzling ERA in New York last year that he had in Oakland the previous two years, but he nearly pitched as well. He’s been good at taking the charge out of the ball, and while the Rogers Centre favors right-handed power, Bassit has been especially good neutering it. There’s no reason that shouldn’t continue in Toronto. MEH
Carlos Rodon, Yankees: With health and maturity has come the ace-ness that he fell short of when he was young and aching. After two years of big profits fantasy owners are going to have to pay him the going rate, which makes him risky again, but he’s in that top group of starters from which you need to have at least one. PICK
Emmanuel Clase, Guardians: Broke out in 2021 when he went from hot shot setup guy to closer, and then went and became the best closer in the game last year. More profits! The main issue is that workhorse closers don’t always last long at the top, though some do. The other issue is that while he throws hard he doesn’t throw a ton of strikeouts, which makes him a little less valuable for fantasy. That’s makes his elite price a MEH.
Jeremy Jeffress, Free agent: He had a couple of great years when nothing was expected of him, then he was released by the Nationals, signed in the Atlantic League (6.45 ERA), moved on to the Mexican League (7.36 ERA), and appears to have retired.
Alek Manoah, Blue Jays: He was a top prospect in 2021 but wasn’t expected in the bigs until 2022. He arrived in late May and hasn’t stopped since. What was supposed to be a developing change-up has become a potent tool, though his dazzling ERA is in part an illusion created by a high left-on-base percentage and a low HR/FB rate. Still, throwing more strikes and walking fewer hitters is a solid trend. PICK
Cristian Javier, Astros: Three years of left-on-base percentages above 80 percent are freakish and concerning. They goose the good results he’s gotten and the profits he’s earned in part because his role was not fully defined. Going forward you should be concerned that his heater-slider repertoire won’t hold up in a full-time starting role, and/or lead to control problems as he tries to improve his change up. Not guaranteed to disappoint this year, but only if expectations are properly tempered. PAN
Julio Urias, Dodgers: His price was kept low the first few years because he was so young and his role was not well-defined. His value has been so high because he’s done nothing but win games, which isn’t crazy when you’re on a team that could be in the World Series every year, but is nonetheless extraordinary. His dazzling 2022 season should be undercut by the very low BABIP he allowed and the high left-on-base percentage he benefited from. His consistent outperforming of expectations is the sort of thing that makes some question whether luck always evens out, and whether there are things some pitchers do that cause them to excel above expectations. This season should provide some solid evidence one way or the other. An excellent pitcher last year flying too close to the sun. Interestingly, his ADP seems to reflect the uncertainty about how much of an ace he actually is. PICK
Sandy Alcantara, Marlins: He’s developed into the complete package, throwing hard, keeping hit balls on the ground, and not walking many. That development means he has been a bargain every year since 2019 (when he was a little one). As long as he can maintain the velocity he should have similar success, though probably an ERA closer to 3.00 than 2.00. PICK
Tony Gonsolin, Dodgers: Our winner and champion. Injuries, uncertainty about who was in the rotation and who was not, and the odd Covid season have all messed with expectations about him. Plus, last year, he allowed a magically low BABIP and left way more batters on base than you’d expect. The market seems to understand this and is leaving him until the 12th round or so, which makes him a PICK.
Here’s a look at the Top 20:
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And have a great weekend!
Sincerely,
It’s nice to see Adam Wainwright on this big profits list. After some rough years he had a nice comeback.
Okay, look out, here comes the paywall…
(and thanks for paying)
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