THE EARLY GAMES
Want to know what’s come up a few times this week? The games the Dodgers and Padres will be playing on March 20 and 21 in Korea. They count! And that means fantasy leagues have to figure out how to deal with them.
If you’re drafting after they’re been played your only decision is whether the teams that end up with Dodgers and Padres players can start or sit them when they set their initial lineups, or whether they must start or sit them. I would think most leagues would give their owners the choice. Any advantage or disadvantage would be figured into the price. It will be fun to watch the bidding if Jose Azocar hits three homers. Or if Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets lit up.
But if you draft before those games are played, you have a different set of decisions to make.
First, presumably, teams will have to decide whether to play or sit their Dodgers and Padres before March 20th, baseball’s first Opening Day this year.
But then what happens on March 28th, baseball’s second Opening Day? I think those Dodgers and Padres should keep the status they had for the first Opening Day. They’re frozen in place and teams would fill in around them with the other players on their team. Then, on April 1st, the weekly moves would let their teams reset their active and reserve rosters.
Another option would be that teams would have to set their complete rosters on March 20th. That would be weird but fair, and sure to inflict some random pain and reward.
Another option would be to let teams reset their rosters on March 28th, including benching or promoting Dodgers or Padres. This sounds like it would be unfair, but it isn’t like extra games are being played. The two games the Dodgers and Padres play early are games they won’t be playing late. The truly savvy fantasy player might work to trade his players whose teams have played more games for players whose teams have played fewer games, but they do that anyway.
My favorite stat service, onRoto, can handle all of these options, but you should check with your service to see how they’re handling things.
TAKE A WALK ON THE MILD SIDE
It occurred to me last night that one reason I may be undervaluing Jose Ramirez by a dollar or two is that I’m not properly adjusting for the apparent lack of depth each step of the way down the third base draft board.
It is a truism that there is only the smallest of position scarcity adjustments in 12-team only fantasy pricing, but when creating bid prices for your league you do have to take into account which players have rarer talents. At third base, Ramirez, Austin Riley, Rafael Devers, and Gunnar Henderson are a solid few clicks above the rest of the field. It isn’t unreasonable to reach a little for them, rather than get stuck with more problematic talent.
Don’t believe me? You be the judge:
As mentioned in the first base roundup, I’m probably undervaluing Jeimer Candelario, but I’m okay with that. Someone else can have him, I don’t mind.
Am I too high on Yoan Moncada? He earned $7 last year in 357 plate appearances. He says he’s healthy. He doesn’t hit enough homers or steal enough bases or make enough contact to get excited about him, but at $9 who needs excitement?
Speaking of excitement, I’m probably a couple of bucks under on Luis Rengifo. He earned $12 last year and $17(!) the year before that. So, he’s been just fine, especially since he nearly tripled his walk rate last year. He’s eligible nearly everywhere, and could be batting leadoff ahead of some strong if injury-prone bats. I’m still not excited, but I’m giving him a small raise.
I downgraded Brett Baty after yesterday’s evaluation and he’s now in better company.
The NFBC drafters are taking Geraldo Perdomo, Jon Berti, JD Davis, Anthony Rendon, Curtis Mead, Josh Rojas, and Luis Urias very late. Like $3 late, which is what you want to do with guys like this if you can. But all of them are capable of earning more than $6 or $7. Just remember that this is the place in an AL- or NL-only auction you’re going to have to play your money. If you have it go after the playing time (can Rendon stay healthy?) or Berti’s steals. If you don’t, lay back and take your best shot. A flyer on a young hitter like Mead could work out if things break the right way. You won’t lose your league with this pick, but you might win it.
Which brings us to Ezequiel Duran and Tyler Black. The NFBC is taking them as $5 players, which I totally agree with. There is some chance either or both could end up being very productive and some chance they will not do anything this year. I’m a bit scared by Duran’s collapse in the second half last year, but he’s still got power and speed skills. And if Black finds playing time he’ll steal some bases.
Aaron Boone is saying that DJ LeMahieu will get a shot at being the Yankees leadoff hitter. I see a guy in free fall, as do the NFBC drafters, but we might both be wrong. Still, I’m not bumping him up.
THE PRINTED GUIDE
Is beautiful. Take a look.
It feels substantial in your hands. More substantial than the old Guides, which were about 40 pages longer.
It looks nice inside, too. Pretty familiar, though all the fonts are different.
Only $21 for Mike Trout?!?!? How nutty is that? Well, it’s one man’s opinion.
You can read many more of that man’s opinion in the lovely softbound version of the book ($19.99) or the Kindle edition ($9.99) at Amazon. Click the link for more information.
Annual subscribers here get the PDF version, less substantial in the hand but with built-in browser search, as part of their package. If you’d prefer to buy the PDF version directly ($12), click here.
HOUSEKEEPING
After the signature, below, you’ll find behind the paywall links to the Position X Position lists, which are seeing small adjustments as I go through them.
When I’m done with position reviews next week I’ll post the final updated Pos X Pos charts for subscribers, reflecting the changes.
When Will I See You Again Dept.: I made it back for Wednesday’s More Catchers survey. We should have a short one tomorrow with the real bottom-barrel catchers. As if you thought it couldn’t get any less.
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