HEALTH REPORT
The good news is I don’t have Covid. The bad news is I have a scratchy throat and a flu-like malaise. Not terrible, I’m capable of sitting up and focusing, but just not feeling great.
So no trip to the IL, but excuse me if today’s report is a little short.
THIRD BASEMEN, REVIEWED
I forgot to include the chart for the Top Third Basemen on Monday. Here it is.
Here are some notes on the next group:
Josh Jung, Rangers: The No. 8 overall in 2019, he was certainly hurt by the lack of games in 2020, but with some astute swing changes in 2021 he advanced quickly through Double-A and Triple-A and looked ready to break big in the majors last year. Alas, he tore the labrum in his left shoulder last February and missed most of the season. When he did get back he was impatient and impulsive and impossible to imagine as a top prospect. He now says he was still hurt and he has worked on his swing again and is dialed in. I’m inclined to believe him, though last year’s expectation that he will be a .260 hitter has been further reduced because you can’t unsee a 38.2 percent strikeout rate. Keep talking about that to your leaguemates. PICK
DJ LeMahieu, Yankees: The painful big toe that bothered him last year is supposedly fixed, without surgery, which puts LeMahieu in position to have another great season. Or does it? He finds himself in a crowded infield, with declining speed and power, which has to be of concern. He made plenty of contact last year and took plenty of walks, so he could have value even if he ends up similarly playing all over the diamond. And with aging vets at first and third and DH he could suddenly find himself at any time with regular at-bats. But realistically and obviously, given his age, he’s closer to the end than ever before. Be careful. PAN
Luis Rengifo, Angels: Was more aggressive, made more contact, and hit for more power last year. That all appears to be repeatable, but is his defense good enough to warrant regular at-bats with roughly average offensive production? On the Angels, maybe so. He’s young, maybe he can build on his advances last year, but it looks like he’ll always be on the brink of being replaced. PAN
Jon Berti, Marlins: Who is going to benefit most from the pitch clock, limits on pickoff throws, and bigger bases? Speedsters, for sure. Berti is a speedster, but he was also a late bloomer, is getting older, and now plays for a team that has added a bunch of hitting pieces in the offseason. The temptation will be to chase Berti’s steals, the better play is to let him fall to you. In an only league that’s unlikely, but in mixed leagues he’s going around the 20th round. That’s a safe place to take a flyer. MEH
Photo: David from Washington, DC
Yoan Moncada, White Sox: Will he bounce back from an injury-plagued disaster of a season? Anything can happen, but do you want to bet on it? He is not swinging as hard as he used to and he’s not nearly as fast as he used to be. He’s likely to have a better season than last season, maybe way better, and yet he still won’t grade out as choice. A player to settle on, not pursue, with the potential to deteriorate further. PAN
Justin Turner, Red Sox: Old guys don’t always crash, but enough do at any given point, to be a concern. Especially because they don’t get extra opportunities to bounce back. He had a bad year defensively, unusual for him, and a decisive dropoff in his power (he hit the ball less hard). Those are warning signs. Maybe not collapse, but slow decline hurts your team, too. PAN
Here is the chart for the mid-range third basemen.
The third base lesson so far is that the lions at the position really roar, but then things get pretty choppy. Not a lot of these mid-level guys appear to have the potential to surprise. In mixed leagues, I’m looking at taking Machado late in the first round, or Devers or Riley in the second, just so I don’t have to decide between Josh Rojas and DJ LeMahieu.
ASK ROTOMAN
Say hey, Rotoman:
Jeffrey Springs had an amazing year. Would have been nearly impossible to have foreseen this. The Rays gave him a ton of money for four years, so this makes me feel he will be a force for the Rays. What do you think?
”It Happens Every Springs”
Say hey!
Springs started the year in the bullpen, as he’d spent the 2021 season, and became a starter in May when the Rays staff was hurting. The change in role seemed to suit him and he made 25 starts the rest of the way.
Since he’s playing for the Rays we have to attribute some of this success to the hoo doo the Rays do, over and over. They acquired him from the Red Sox in February 2021, a reliever coming off a season with a 7.08 ERA who had allowed more than 2.2 homers per nine innings in the Covid short season.
He still struggled with the long ball his first season with the Rays, but improved control and better BABIP luck made the overall picture look a lot better. Still, what came last year, as you say, could not have been foreseen.
After moving into the rotation he used his slider more and his change-up less. As usually happens he lost some velocity but was able to make that work. He’ll start this year in the back of the rotation, and clearly part of his value is his ability to change roles, something the Rays do a lot of.
There are a few red flags here. His success last year came with a much lower homer rate on fly balls, more than half the rate of the previous two years. That’s a number that usually moves toward the mean.
His LOB% was 82.3 percent, which is high and means that if he puts on the same number of runners in the future more should be expected to score.
And his BABIP was .030 below his career BABIP allowed, without a significant difference in his ground ball and fly ball rates (and with fewer strikeouts).
All these indicators point in a negative direction, which is a good reason not to expect a repeat. But clearly the Rays, the smartest guys in the room, expect him to have continued value. So I’m not predicting a disaster, no, but retrenchment? Yes.
Sincerely,
UNTIL TOMORROW
Well, that took my mind off my aches and pains. I’ll be back tomorrow with the rest of the third base mess.
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