NEWSMANIA
A reader, George, who has a fun Facebook group called Rotoimbeciles, commented yesterday:
I was surprised (as you were, obviously) that the Marlins didn't sign Amed Rosario to that same $1.5M deal that the Rays inked him for. Instead, they pivoted to Tim Anderson and "gifted" him $5M. To me at least, Rosario and Anderson seem redundant but, then again, what the hell do I know? I saw that Gio Urshela and the Tigers agreed to the same deal this morning that Rosario received: 1 yr/$1.5M.
Steamer has Tim Anderson projected for nine homers and 14 steals with a .711 OPS. Steamer has Amed Rosario projected for many fewer at-bats, six homers, seven steals, and a .714 OPS. All the projection systems project Rosario to play better defense, though he’s been pretty weak the last two years.
Photo: Creator: Keith Allison | Credit: KeithAllisonPhoto.com
Anderson is four years older, coming off a disastrous season. Before that he hit .300+ four years in a row, so there might be some bounceback there, but at the price? The Rays signed a guy they didn’t necessarily need. The frugal Marlins paid millions more for a guy who is not significantly better.
As for Gio Urshela, he always seems to land on his feet. He’s just good and useful enough to stay employed by major league teams, while not helping our fantasy teams much at all. In Detroit, it looks like he’ll platoon with Zach McKinstry, who isn’t much of a hitter but has a power-speed profile that is more interesting.
Kodai Senga went down with a strained shoulder capsule and will not be ready for Opening Day. There isn’t a schedule yet for his return, which will depend on how long a rest is needed before the problem goes away. I trimmed his projection to 120 innings, with a $10 bid price. That’s subject to change as we get more details. The Mets are saying they expect Senga to see a “bunch of starts” this season, which clarifies nothing.
The Brewers signed Gary Sanchez and released Austin Nola, who went on to sign with the Royals, putting a ding in my early enthusiasm for Freddie Fermin in KC. Not a big ding. Nola’s performance the last two years has been horrible and declining at the same time.
ULTIMATE CHEAP STARTERS
The cheap starters are different than the $6-$9 starters. The second-tier guys require multiple bids. Somebody thinks each of them might do something good, and someone else things they might too. Analysis reveals information that suggests they might be good.
The $5 and less starters offer no reason to think this will be the year they do something good. They’re down here in the endgame because teams are grasping at straws, hoping they pick off one or two or three of the cheap ones who will be productive this year. Or, at least, won’t kill your ERA and Ratio before they cut them.
But even though no one knows which ones will be productive, some are:
There are reasons these guys didn’t attract much attention. I like to add notes to get a feel for who to look for this year.
So, mainly the big cheap earners were coming back from injury, lucky, or were thought of as a relievers.
We can’t tell who’s going to be lucky this year, but we can assess why they’re ranked this way:
You can make up your own categories if you prefer.
The rest:
The NFBC picks higher than 345 are valued at $5 and less. So let’s take a look at the guys the NFBC is valuing more than $5.
Seattle called up Bryan Woo in June and he did a solid job when he wasn’t on the IL with forearm inflammation. He was hit hard by lefties and isn’t guaranteed a rotation spot to start this season. But he shut down righties and does a decent job controlling a diverse arsenal, so there’s no reason to bid him up and some reason to hope for him to get better.
Taj Bradley got off to a terrific start but then stumbled. His 19.6 K%-BB% is most of what you need to know, which is why the NFBC is treating him like a $9 pitcher. But he’s just 23 and plenty of excellent pitchers don’t figure it out for another year or two.
Photo: KA Sports Photos from Hanover, MD, USA
John Means is an excellent but undominant pitcher coming back from injury. He can put up fine games that are followed by games in which he’s routed. His 2021 results were pretty lucky and a return to that level shouldn’t be assumed, but he should be playing in front of a helpful defense, which can be called making your own luck.
MacKenzie Gore got off to a good start last year but flagged as the season proceeded. Some of the early success was lucky, but he also did a better job not walking hitters. He’s a former No. 3 overall from 2017.
I took Lance Lynn as my last pitcher in my 15-team sorta-dynasty league, which drew laughs. Lynn was terrible last year if you go by ERA, but he struck out a little bit more than one per inning. He struggled allowing long balls and he’ll be on a short leash, but the three preceding years he did a solid job.
Yusei Kikuchi is going in the NFBC for the equivalent of $9, but I think the early bidders there are buying into Kikuchi’s pretty-lucky summer last year.
The Tigers Reese Olson was also lucky last year, but he’s also a breakout candidate. He threw notably fewer strikeouts last year after he was promoted, but his solid control persisted. There is reason to be optimistic.
The reputation of Lucas Giolito endures in spite of his decline. The Athletic surveyed baseball insiders and they said the Red Sox signing of Giolito was the worst of the offseason. It isn’t like he didn’t earn that 4.88 ERA last year.
Charlie Morton is getting a lot of respect, even though he’s old and was a shadow of his best self last year.
Seth Lugo had a solid season last year, and I don’t believe it. The NFBC is believing it.
Emmett Sheehan was unlucky last year in his major league time, but he also struggled with his control (as he has throughout his minor league years). He’s not a lock for the rotation and may struggle if he gets a bigger role, but his minor league strikeout punch has folks anticipating his breakout.
Andrew Abbott is a fly ball pitcher at Great American Ballpark, not a good match. He did okay last year, but it’s going to be a tightrope walk.
The Phillies Cristopher Sanchez and the Angels Griffin Canning are works in progress. Sanchez abruptly improved his profile last year at the major league level, striking out more (if not a lot) and walking fewer. His sinker-changeup-slider mix held up. Canning physically held up better but didn’t get the results his mix of strikeouts and control would suggest.
SELLING OUT
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024, softcover book edition ($19.99), and Kindle edition ($9.99), are available at Amazon.
The PDF version ($12) is available by clicking here
HOUSEKEEPING
After the signature, below, you’ll find behind the paywall links to the Position X Position lists, which are seeing small adjustments as I go through them.
You will also find a link to the Excel spreadsheet with projections, prices, and position stuff. There should be an update sometime tomorrow.
When Will I See You Again Dept.: Coming soon: Historical Top 20s by Position, then Relievers.
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