MATH
Alex Patton and I entered the CBS and LABR expert league prices from their recent auctions into the Windows software subscribers at PattonandCo.com have access to. We use that software to create the weekly Excel and text updates you can download over there if you’re a subscriber.
A reminder: If you’re a so-called annual subscriber of Rotoman’s Guide and you would like to access the PattonandCo.com site, please email askrotoman@gmail.com and tell me what email address you’re registered with here. If you’re registered (free) with the same address I’ll get you access at P&co as quickly as I can. For annual subscribers, there’s no extra charge. It’s baked in!
The spreadsheet, which will have Tout Wars prices in the March 21 update, after Tout Weekend (3/16 and 3/17), is a great way to check my work, so I thought today we’d take a look at some of the most divergent prices and try to figure out why that was happening.
It didn’t take long before a pattern emerged.
But first came Paul Blackburn, who appeared to go for $33 in CBS. He did not. That was a typo. He went for $3 in CBS, wasn’t picked up in LABR, and I don’t have a price on him. There were a few other typos, too, but soon they were corrected and a new trend surfaced.
The argument for Grayson Rodriguez, the reason someone in CBS paid $26 for him, is his smart second half last year. After his recall from Triple-A in July he threw fewer strikeouts and fewer walks and he was also very effective. If you feel he’s irrevocably turned the corner and he’s an ace, pay him like one. I suggest stopping at $15 because he’s still a work in progress. The good 76.7 innings he pitched to end the season is a blip, not proof of anything, and we have yet to see how hitters adjust and attack back. LABR landed in-between. My bid is not likely going to win him, but then I don’t think you should be risking ace money on a guy who earned $4 his rookie season (based on the Patton 5x5 prices).
Freddy Peralta is a similar outlier. He earned $30 in 2021 and $22 last year, but last year was the first he topped 150 innings. He too could pitch like an ace this year, but it wouldn’t be a surprise if his injury history bit him again. CBS and LABR went $26 and $21, I’m on him at $17. I suppose if you want to take on some risk, as his LABR owner did, $21 is a fair bet, but I’d prefer cheaper.
Tyler Glasnow, to further develop the theme, has earned between $18 and $23 in the past five years, but pitched only 6.7 innings in 2022, and has yet to top 120 innings in a season. I have him down for $17 this year but CBS and LABR went full speed ahead, paying him $26 and $24 respectively. This isn’t craziness, you could say he’s established a solid floor if he gets to about 100 innings in a year, but his lack of a 2022 is a reminder of his fragility.
One of the problems this year is that the once-solid roster of aces is diminished. After Gerrit Cole, every top starter has something to worry you about. Pablo Lopez has less to worry about than most. He’s got 3.5 solid seasons behind him, excellent control, and enough gas to strike guys out (though he doesn’t run those numbers up). Still, he hasn’t posted big strikeout numbers, so his earnings in the last three years are $21, $14, and $15. Is this a guy to bid $31 on? His xERA last year of 3.00 was the lowest in baseball, so maybe there was real growth hiding in noisy numbers. Maybe. If you punch Lopez’s xERA into the price formula he becomes a $27 pitcher last year. You shouldn’t do that.
The case for spending $13 on Gavin Williams? He’s a Cleveland starter and they’re almost always good. Plus, he had big strikeout numbers in the minors, though more modest ones in the majors last year. The reason my bid is $6? He walked more than four hitters per nine last year, and his estimated ERAs are more like 4.00+ than the eye-catching 3.29 he posted last year in limited big-league action. Plus, he comes with an injury history.
We have a discrepancy on Corbin Burnes, too, but much of it is because CBS spent $37 on him. CBS always has some outlier values because they hold their auction before games are being played. The drafters go after the chalk pitchers and hitters, driving prices up. Acuna went for $62. Those values that look crazy can be ignored.
There is a similar outlier number for Eury Perez in CBS, but not on Spencer Strider. CBS spent $38, LABR $37, I say pay $31. In his first two seasons, Strider earned $26 and $30. He’s working on a curveball this spring but is talking as if he’s going with the fastball and slider most of the time. If any starter could be paid this much and blow past it in earnings, a youthful and healthy Strider is the one, if he had a third pitch. Until then (and it could be this year, but maybe not), he’s vulnerable. Not at risk of stinking, but of being merely very very good.
I’m well below the consensus on Chris Sale and Michael King. Sale hasn’t topped 150 innings since 2018. He was decent last year for 100 innings, but there is nothing different than what made him an injury risk in the first place. King was great as a starter last year, but it was only nine starts. As the velocity decreases, as it will with longer outings, will he continue to succeed? I think he might but he’s still in my basket of starters whose talent is clear but their ability to execute long-term is not established.
The only starters I’m high on who the expert leagues wavered are free agents Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, and Mike Clevinger. The experts’ prices are not true, they have to factor in the possibility that the player will sign in the other league. I don’t.
Am I concerned I’m a tick or two low on the aces? Not, though you should understand the rationale. I wrote about it earlier in the year. My plan is to buy one ace, a guy with a lot of strikeouts either because of a high rate or a lot of innings, on a good team. If I have to overpay for one of those I’m okay with that, though I try to read the room and get the best deal.
Then I add a closer and surround those two with cheap guys. I want to spend less than $70 on pitching if I can, have a solid base, and put myself in a position to get lucky with cheap starters. Spending more on hitting gives you a little cushion, so when the luck comes you roll.
You can decide to do things differently.
With so many flawed aces, maybe it makes sense to take two aspiring aces (who aren’t being paid as if they’ve already crossed over). Guys like Ryan Pepiot and Ryne Nelson and Taj Bradley, who throw strikeouts but have yet to break out.
Or you could go with one of the boring aces, like Aaron Nola, who has a strong track record but whose price is dimmed because he’s coming off a down-ish year. Then take a an aspiring ace and collect the cheap guys, including closers in waiting.
The best plan is the one that keeps your important guys healthy and effective, and your cheap guys emerging as pleasant surprises. Discipline helps, though even the best formulated plan can crash and burn. That’s the nature of pitching staffs. Still, if you follow the strikeouts you’ll automagically get part of the way there.
ROTOMAN’S FANTASY GUIDE 2024 UPDATE
Here’s a special sheet for folks who bought Rotoman’s Fantasy Guide 2024. A sheet updated through March 7.
It’s password protected. The password is the last word in the Ronald Acuña Jr. profile. Lower case.
If you want to make edits you’ll need to save it with a different name.
Members here at the Substack have their own updated spreadsheet linked after the paywall. Paid subscribers, even for one month, get access.
FOR SALE
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024, softcover, $20, Kindle, $10.
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024, PDF, $12.
Ron Shandler’s Fantasy Expert, hardcover, $25, Kindle, $12. I wrote the foreword.
Les Leopold’s Wall Street’s War on Workers, hardcover, $25, Kindle, $23. I did a lot of the data work and some editing.
HOUSEKEEPING
When Will I See You Again Dept.: I’ll be back on Monday
Thanks for your comments, questions, arguments, and news.
Thanks for sharing this with your friends and competitors.
Your paid subscriptions and purchases support this work. Thanks. If you aren’t a paid subscriber, please consider it. Sign up for monthly and you will pay for one month before I shut down in April.
Have a great weekend! Looks like a lot of rain here in the northeast.
Sincerely,
Here are some links exclusively for paid subscribers:
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Rotoman's Guide to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.