WHO’S WHO
Tim McLeod put together the cast for tonight’s Rotoman’s Guide Mock Draft. It’s a terrific crew and should be a fun bunch.
In order:
Prospect maven at Baseball America Geoff Pontes leads off.
The RotoDaddy (and Managing Editor at Fantrax) Doug Anderson is up next.
The hardest-working man in fantasy baseball, Todd Zola, bats third.
Fantrax’s Mike Carter bats cleanup.
Justin Mason, master of the Great Fantasy Baseball Invitation, comes next.
Dylan White, head of the news Baseball America fantasy vertical, follows.
Tim McLeod of Prospect 361 and longtime Guide contributor goes seventh.
Lucas Biery is introducing a new site this year focusing on NFBC Draft Champions, called DC Dynasty.
Ariel Cohen compiles the ATC Projections and is nominated for FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year every year, and he sometimes wins.
Doug Dennis is the funniest man with a Fact or Fluke and a long-time contributor at BaseballHQ.
I work here.
Steve Gardner runs the LABR leagues and writes for USA Today and Sports Weekly.
Scott Pianowski has long had a home for his fantasy baseball and football writing at Yahoo.
Eric Cross is the lead MLB/Baseball writer at Fantrax.
Zach Steinhorn, friend of the Substack and longtime Roto expert, has the last pick of round one.
I’ll send out the results tomorrow.
Play ball!
ASK ROTOMAN
Hey Rotoman,
I've been offered a preseason trade of keepers - sending $24 JT Realmuto and receiving $25 Zack Wheeler. This is a 9-team NL-only league that's 6x6.
Photo: Jeffrey Hayes
If I take Wheeler, I can probably keep a pitching staff of him, Kyle Wright ($11), Tony Gonsolin ($8), Mitch Keller ($2), Edwin Diaz ($17), and maybe, maybe a $3 flyer on Cade Cavalli or Ryne Nelson (or fill out my pitching with dollar guys).
I'm probably not keeping Realmuto otherwise, with seven keepers allowed (probably keeping $6 Ke’Bryan Hayes - Bucs fan here - and $4 Alex Bohm, aware of the duplication).
Anyway, would love your opinion. I did the annual subscription and I love it so far - exactly what I've been looking for for a few years.
“Button Polisher”
Dear BP:
Thanks for your question and for your endorsement of the annual subscription (which also includes a Pattonandco.com membership and erratic posting after the season starts) to Rotoman’s Guide. To learn more about subscribing:
The heart of your question is whether it is better to keep Zack Wheeler ($25) or Cade Cavalli/Ryne Nelson ($3). The obvious answer is to keep Wheeler. He’s not the most elite ace, he doesn’t throw the strikeouts for that, but his excellent control always has him in the game. Cavalli and Nelson are certainly draftable, but there is no reason to think they’ll go for $3 and they may well go for $1 or even more likely on reserve.
I’m more interested in the rationale for keeping Wheeler over Realmuto. They’re roughly the same price in standard roto, but as a league gets shallower position scarcity becomes more of an influence. In NFBC 15 team leagues Realmuto is going 25th, Wheeler is going 53rd. Your league isn’t that shallow, but there is no one who produces offensively at catcher the way JTR does.
If you’re concerned about his age and injury potential, join the club. It isn’t like decline will inevitably come this year, but it is true that decline will inevitably come at some point. It’s totally understandable if you want to avoid it.
Sincerely,
CLOSERS IN WAITING
Jeff Erickson proposed writing a closers-in-waiting article for The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2001. I had never heard that expression before, I don’t think, but it perfectly described back then the most solid arms behind each team’s closer.
The connection today is a little more tenuous. Teams like the Phillies are going in with four closer-type arms, and could go with the best matchup each day or might give most of the chances to Kimbrel if he gets off to a hot start. There’s just no way to know.
I took a look at the NFBC ADPS for closers to see where the betting money was going:
20.41 Edwin Diaz, Mets
23.01 Emmanuel Clase, Guardians
31.40 Josh Hader, Padres
40.30 Jordan Romano, Blue Jays
46.37 Devin Williams, Brewers
47.98 Ryan Pressly, Astros
57.95 Reisel Iglesias, Braves
58.69 Felix Bautista, Orioles
63.84 Ryan Helsley, Cardinals
70.43 Kenley Jansen, Red Sox
72.98 Camilo Doval, Giants
Up to this point there’s been a steady drumbeat, 11 relievers in 51 picks, one every four or five picks. Let’s call these guys the Sure Things.
Then there’s a drop…
101.30 David Bednar, Pirates: A good pitcher on a bad team. A team that seemling should have dealt him away last year. The big risk for Bednar is that he gets traded away into a setup role. PAN
106.32 Clay Holmes, Yankees: He was brilliant in the first half last year, but he struggled with his control in July and August. His GM says he’s the closer, but he’ll certainly be on a short leash. PAN
112.35 Scott Barlow, Royals
113.72 Daniel Bard, Rockies: I’m not sure Bard belongs this high. He was much improved last year and was much more successful, but a goodly portion of that was good luck. I’m not betting much on a 37-year-old closer for a bad team at elevation. PAN
117.16 Jhoan Duran, Twins
129.42 Alexis Diaz, Reds
And here’s where we find the break point. A big drop to Munoz followed by another big drop to another Seattle closer wannabe.
150.49 Andres Munoz, Mariners
170.52 Paul Sewald, Mariners.
178.60 Liam Hendriks, White Sox
181.68 Jose LeClerc, Rangers
197.48 Peter Fairbanks, Rays
216.71 Seranthony Dominguez, Phillies: Hmm, our first Phillies closer. There will be more.
237.21 Kyle Finnegan, Nationals
237.57 Gregory Soto, Phillies: Another
A big drop now to the real question marks.
271.93 Dylan Floro, Marlins
281.00 Geovanny Gallegos, Cardinals
298.09 Evan Phillips, Dodgers
343.08 Rafael Montero, Astros
343.75 Tyler Rogers, Giants
382.12 Carlos Estevez, Angels
386.78 Craig Kimbrel, Phillies: That’s a long wait until Kimbrel.
435.32 James Karinchak, Guardians
438.31 Aroldis Chapman, Royals
That’s 23 rounds. The sheet goes 60 rounds and you can customize it with start and end dates.
I’ll be adding comments to Rotoman’s Sheet tomorrow and through the weekend, on closers, closers in waiting, and starters. Please let me know what questions and thoughts you have.
END OF DAY
It turns out I screwed up the program release yesterday at Pattoandco.com, so I spent more time fixing that this afternoon than I expected to. So, fewer profiles today, more to come tomorrow.
If you’re an Annual member here you get access to Pattonandco.com, which has its own spreadsheet and Alex Patton’s bid prices and historical prices. If you’re interested in becoming a member click the green button for more information.
I’m off to the Mock Draft now. Results in the AM.
The link to Rotoman’s Sheet? After the paywall.
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