The Glass Half Full
We Inch Past the Middle and Evaluate
MOI
When I checked the standings last night in my AL-only league, I was in first place for the first time this season. The Bad Ks had gotten off to a Bad Start to the season offensively because I’d rostered two hurt guys, Parker Meadows and Josh Lowe. I thought the prices were fair if they returned on schedule, and they have, which at least partially explains why the team has climbed up in the standings.
I also had Chandler Simpson as my first reserve pick, and when he was called up earlier in the season I climbed from the bottom of the steals standings into the middle. I also traded Bryan Woo for Peter Fairbanks, which has gained me a few points in saves. All of which is nice today, but there are three months to go and over the past 30 days the Palukas, with whom I’m tied, have been substantially better than the Bad K, and the Tooners, the team we both just recently passed, are patiently waiting to get Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez back off the IL.
There’s a lot of season left to play.
My Tout Wars NL team is in fifth place. It was in the hunt until Hunter Greene got hurt, and though he’s due back shortly it desperately needs even more starting pitching. It also needs a closer because my Justin Martinez gambit didn’t work. My hopes for Tony Gonsolin have faded, Cade Horton has not been transformative and the Phillies patience with Andrew Painter is trying my patience. Though I’d like for them to do what’s best for him this time. I’ll keep pounding the waiver wire but Grey Albright is opening up an ever bigger lead behind a pretty sweet staff.
PAS MOI
You didn’t come here, of course, to hear about me. It’s July 1 and time for updated player prices!
The Google Sheet with all the prices is here.
The thing to remember is that these are updated prices through the end of games on June 30, scaled as if the season ended yesterday. So there are 216 pitchers with positive prices for this month, and 336 hitters, judged by their performances to date.
All players start in a -$4 hole, which represents the opportunity cost of an empty roster slot, so it takes a while for players with limited playing time because of a recent call up or return from injury to have a positive value.
So, you’ll have to make mental adjustments for players who haven’t played much. But this is the best way I know to compare what we paid for players in our auctions/drafts with what they’re doing so far.
PITCHERS
For instance, we paid $2 for Andrew Abbott in our auctions this past March/April. In Tout Wars Grey took him in the first reserve round with the ninth pick. For some reason I thought my problem was hitting and I took Sam Hilliard with my first pick. Yuck. As so often happens, teams that get the surprising pitchers for cheap get a big leg up as the season goes along. Hence, for Mr. Razz, first place.
If you have one or two pitchers on this list on your team, you’re probably doing okay. My AL Only has Garrett Crochet and Kris Bubic. Hence, tied for first place.
We’ve talked before about how pitchers with low expectations going into the auction who get off to a good start often don’t fade as much as you’d think. What can we expect from Abbott going forward? His BABIP and LOB% and his HR/FB rates all indicate he’s been fortunate this year, though his improved walk rate may be helping him challenge hitters with tougher pitches. A <2.00 ERA the rest of the way would be shocking, but there’s no reason he can’t be a solid mid-line pitcher with a 3.75 ERA and a bunch more wins.
We get a somewhat different view when we look at the year’s best pitchers, so far.
You want these guys, too, but given their cost they’re not generally helping as much as the big winners.
And who is hurting?
Most of these weren’t bad buys, but they’ve turned out to be bad guys.
HITTERS
What impresses me with this group of big-profit hitters is how consistent they’ve been month to month. They’re not only bargains, but it looks like more than a few will turn out to be the real deal.
The names on this list that jump out at me are Andy Pages and Jonathan Aranda. Both are in the second-round range right now.
Pages is getting much better results by being more aggressive, getting away from the patient approach that led to a lot of minor league walks, and attacking the ball. It’s a subtle change, but he’s making more contact and getting to a bit more of his power.
Aranda is hitting more balls solidly, more line drives, and has a bulging BABIP to go with pumped up slash lines. He’s primarily facing righties, against whom he’s always been more successful, but he’s putting up a .800 OPS against lefties this year, which isn’t hurting.
I’m comfortable saying Pages is for real, while Aranda is riding a hot streak, but if you rostered either of these guys in a 12-team only league you have to like what you’ve gotten so far.
Who are the big guns this year?
Judge, Ohtani, and Raleigh. The Seattle catcher is a surprise at these heights, even though there has always been much to admire about all aspects of his game. The thing to remember is that to stay on this pace he’s going to have to hit 66 homers. Not that likely.
But he is hitting the ball more and hitting it harder, so this isn’t a complete fluke. But he has hit eight balls that went for homers that wouldn’t usually be expected to be a homer, which explains his elevated HR/FB rate. I suspect his owners will not be complaining if he only hits another 20 bangers.
On to the heartbreakers:
There are a lot of big names on this list. Some of them are good targets, though nobody is giving away Bobby Witt because he’s losing money at his price. Others, like Triston Casas, are out until next year. But you can be sure whoever has these guys rostered in your league will be happy to talk about them.
HOUSEKEEPING
I hope these monthly updates are helpful. There only two more editions before the end-of-season roundup.
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See you around August first. Have a fun and safe holiday (set the fireworks on the ground, light the fuse, and run away).
Sincerely,
