ARMS-LENGTH NEWS
The Giants have signed Jorge Soler, former home run champ, to a three-year deal. Soler leaves a notoriously bad home-run park in Miami to move to a notoriously bad home-run park in San Francisco. Both parks are a paradise for triple hitters, but Soler hasn’t had one of those since 2019, in Kansas City. Bad fielding and a lengthy injury history will keep his price low, but despite the difficulty of hitting in Oracle Park, he’ll slug as much as he’s able to play.
The Pirates have signed right-handed pitchers Brent Honeywell and Wily Peralta to minor league contracts and invited them to Spring Training. Peralta spent 2023 in Triple-A as a starter, and he’s been better in that role as a major leaguer than in relief. But not that good in either role. Honeywell’s been a fave since I saw him toss his screwball in Arizona in 2016. Injuries slowed his ascent, but he spent much of 2023 pitching in relief for the White Sox. He wasn’t all that effective, even with his “change-up,” which is how Statcast characterizes the scroogy, but he did have a good day last Spring against the Giants, getting a lot of swings out of the strike zone.
WHAT HAVE THEY DONE TO MY OUTFIELD?
So far, during these position reviews, I’ve been impressing myself with how few of the bids needed changing. There was plenty to discuss, and I did change a few at each position, but most of the time I think I got it right the first time.
Until now.
As the mock draft was winding down on Sunday, I needed outfielders. At the top of my list was Will Benson, who earned $13 in limited play last year. I initially priced him at $16, and that had him on top of my queue for a while while I added pitchers. Even then, after rounding out my staff, there sat Benson, ready to be plucked.
Now is a good time to mention something about online drafts. They all use a list of players who can be selected, and that list can usually be sorted a few ways. The three that matter most are
Rank, which is usually the site’s ranking of the player in the whole pool;
Rating, which is some metric that gives the player a relative value; and
ADP, which is the average position he’s been taken in other drafts at the site.
That’s if you use the site’s list. I uploaded my own list to Fantrax, so my draft board was showing the order in which I ranked the players alongside the site’s rating and ADP. So, I had Benson at 170, while the site was showing him with an ADP of 666. Devilishly bad. So, in the wait between picks I looked up Benson and was reminded of my cogent profile in Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024:
That’s an optimistic projection, but one that seems plausible given what Benson did last year. I’m sure the $16 is about what that projection is worth, so I should have been delighted to roster Benson, right? Yet I paused and eventually passed and in the end no one took Benson.
In an only league I’d be delighted to have a productive part-timer, a strong-side platoonist with power and speed. Benson had a .938 OPS against righties last year, but only a .400 OPS versus lefties (in just 40 or so plate appearances). In limited play in Triple-A last year he had a .869 versus righties, and a .666 versus lefties. In Triple-A in 2022 he had a 1.021 versus righties and a .761 versus lefties. Clearly, he’s not great against lefties.
So, in a 15-team mixed league he’s better as a reserve, someone to use as a fill-in when there’s an injury, or to rotate in on a week when the Reds are facing lots of righties. Which is why he’s being taken at 298th in the NFBC.
Why is he going in the 600s in Fantrax? Because they have him ranked 622 even though their preseason rankings put him at 404. The draft lists at each site matter. When you’re looking to roster someone you tend to scan around in the top of the list, and perhaps worthy players lurk in the dark depths.
So why did I mess around with my outfield rankings in the second tier today? Because a lot of the dollar values, like the dollar value for Benson, were based more on what the player earned last year and what their projected stats will be worth this year, rather than on an evaluation of demand. Considering the current demand and the roles and skills issues that make many of these guys problematic, the list below is much better than the one I started with this AM.
Here’s the adjusted list of the mid-tier outfielders:
The NFBC says I have Lane Thomas a few dollars too cheap, and they may be right. But I look at his numbers against righties last year and I wonder how much leash he has playing full time, especially after his second-half collapse. I may have him a few dollars too high.
Esteury Ruiz earned $22 last year, yet I still have him priced at $16, which is what I had him at last year. Alex Patton says he earned $18 in steals alone, which sounds right. I don’t break the dollars out by category. What’s the thinking? Ruiz platooned last summer after he came back from the IL, and his .619 OPS against righties suggests that might be the right course again. Ruiz only pinch ran twice last year, it’s hard to rotate in a pinch runner when you have a short bench and that pinch runner is limited defensively. Ruiz’ll get his chances and he is likely to lead the AL in steals again, but if he ends up with 350 mediocre at bats it’s going to be hard to keep him in your fantasy lineup. So you shouldn’t pay for all those steals.
Unlike Ruiz, Steven Kwan puts the ball in play, which gives him a good batting average. He steals some bases, and plays good defense, which means his job as a full-time player is secure. Still, he doesn’t hit the ball hard and the draft leagues are making him a $13 player, not a $15 one. He’s earned $32 and $19 the last two years, so I’m not afraid of $15, but if you can get him more cheaply go for it.
I originally had Jackson Chourio and Wyatt Langford at around $7. The reason was that while their status as top rookie candidates is secure, it is not a sure thing either will start the season in the majors. Neither has been tested yet by Triple-A, both having fewer than 30 plate appearances at that level last year. But I bumped them up to $14 and $11 respectively because the draft leagues are valuing them even more highly. Chourio between $17 and $20, with Langford between $13 and $15. It’s risky to go that high, but it’s also true that with talents like these those prices could turn out to be bargains. Either way, I try to have my prices be reasonable, a tick or two low when I don’t like the risk, and a tick or two high when I do.
The $11 bucket is a messy one. In addition to Langford I have Christopher Morel, Jarred Kelenic, Jack Suwinski, Jung Hoo Lee, Max Kepler, Bryan De La Cruz, Parker Meadows, Will Benson, and Johan Rojas at $11 right now. That’s just below average in a AL or NL-only league. All of these guys could easily earn $11, but for various reasons they might not.
Jung Hoo Lee is a problematic import this year, not because he’s modeled his game on that of Ichiro Suzuki and could possibly lead the NL in hitting, but because he hasn’t run like Ichiro so far. But a guy who walks twice for every strikeout intrigues.
As much as I want to pay Benson $16, he’s a much better fit in this group. A strikeout rate above 30 percent is a big red flag. The less spent, the better.
Johan Rojas was promoted at midseason last year and was soon starting regularly for the Phillies. He’s a terrific fielder who hit .302, but his extremely low walk rate and relatively high strikeout rate are not confidence builders for success at the plate. But he also runs, which might work for fantasy if he plays (even if he doesn’t hit).
Willi Castro was promoted early in his career by the Tigers, and it took him awhile to find his stride. Last year he walked more, struck out less, and ran wild on the bases. He was much better against righties than lefties, too, good enough to own the strong side of a platoon, but in his career he has a .695 OPS vs righties and a .690 vs lefties. Improving bat to ball skills and stolen bases mean Castro doesn’t have to do much to earn his $11, which means there is upside in his game.
SHOPPING
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024 Softcover ($19.99) The $9.99 Kindle version can be found on the same page. The softcover is currently No. 9 on the baseball books list at Amazon.
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024 PDF ($12)
Ron Shandler’s Fantasy Expert is out soon. It’s a fun history of our game, from the beginning right up til about 2000. I wrote the Foreword. The publisher is offering a special deal up until the release date. 30 percent off! CLICK HERE on the Triumph Books website and enter the Promotion Code EXPERT30 in the shopping cart. This offer expires on February 20, 2024.
HOUSEKEEPING
After the signature, below, you’ll find behind the paywall links to the Position X Position lists, which are seeing small adjustments as I go through them.
When I’m done with position reviews this week I’ll post the final updated Pos X Pos charts for subscribers, reflecting the changes.
When Will I See You Again Dept.: More outfielders tomorrow.
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