NEWS TO START
Nick Gordon was traded from the Twins, where he was blocked, to the Marlins, where he seems equally if not more redundant. Gordon missed most of last season after he broke a leg in May. Before the injury, he seemed hopeless, so maybe a new start in a new place in a new league will help. He has enough power, speed, and good contact to help an NL-only as an endgame pickup, with hopes he ends up with 350 plate appearances by season’s end. Mixed league interest will require more regular play.
The Marlins gave up Steven Okert in the deal for Gordon. Okert has been a solid middle/setup guy the past three years, but a tendency to allow homers and walks makes him a dubious fantasy pickup even though the strikeouts and holds have been there.
THE UPPER TIER
I teased that I was going to start outfielders on Friday, but instead got into a longish piece about projections and accuracy. And then, I seem to have sent it only to Paid Subscribers by accident.
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Okay, on to the outfielders:
Notice that I added a column. My friend, Tim McLeod, put together a mock draft for his and Rich Wilson’s Prospect 361 podcast and website. I participated, picking fourth, and Tim generously said I could share as much of the results as I wanted with you.
I don’t want to make a big deal about one mock draft, as you can see in the results a lot of the ADP results from NFBC tracked closely with our draft last night, but some most surely did not.
I had the fourth pick and took Bobby Witt Jr. I was surprised when Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker went ahead of Corbin Carroll. Maybe Carroll’s second-half homer-power outage cost him.
When you’re picking in the upper half of the first round, there are no losers, so I won’t quibble about any picks. You want Juan Soto and you have the third pick? As Tim did. Soto’s not going to be there with the 28th pick. And the final season rankings will not look anything like this, but more of the guys taken in the first round to start the season will end up ranked in the first round at the end of the season, usually, than those of any other round. Not many, but more.
Folks have cooled a little on Aaron Judge, who impressed me last year with just how good he was when he played. That injury history has hurt his career, but might he have another healthy year? It’s going to cost to find out, but if he does you’ll make big profits.
The next real blip in the list are my rankings of Jordan Walker and Evan Carter at $22, which is the draft equivalent of the 77th to 82nd pick. Walker went one pick earlier than the NFBC’s ADP grade, which is functionally worth $19. Not a huge difference, but the better part of two rounds. In last night’s draft, Carter went 85th, which is a $21 bid.
A wide spread of picks in the middle rounds isn’t unusual and doesn’t represent wildly off estimates of draft or auction value. In the last 30 days, Carter’s NFBC ADP has been 125, but in the 148 drafts conducted there in the last month he’s been taken in every one, in picks ranging from No. 79 to No. 189. The average derives from that spread. Your opinion may differ.
Photo: Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA
Which brings us to Mike Trout. In the last five years, his earnings have been: $30, $28, $4, $28, and $11. His average earnings for the last three are $14. My price for him gives him more credit for hitting 40 homers in 2022 in only 499 plate appearances, but looks on the $28 he earned that year as a ceiling given his troubles staying on the field. The NFBC is treating him as a $24 hitter, while he went in the Prospect 361 draft as a $26 player. You can choose between $21, $24, and $26. Trout could earn any of them, or he might earn a few dollars more, like in 2022, or many dollars less, as he did in 2021 and 2023. He is still clearly a great hitter when he can play, but it’s your gut check when you decide how much you believe he will.
At $21, I have Cedric Mullins smartly ahead of the NFBC and well ahead of PROS 361. I’m keeping him there. His 2023 was undermined by a groin injury, but he’s not been chronically hurt. He's expected to be healthy this year hitting in a stacked lineup. I expect his price to go up as drafts and auctions get more actie.
Teoscar Hernandez and George Springer each went much closer to my price last night than to the NFBC averages. Both are older sluggers coming off poorer seasons than they usually have. It wouldn’t be a surprise if one, the other, or both struggled this year, but odds are good they’re both going to have solid seasons as major league regular outfielders.
Masataka Yoshida is going in the NFBC and PROS 361 as if he’s a $14 player, while he earned $22 last year. All the projection engines, including mine, have him bettering his last year’s numbers. That doesn’t mean it’s 100 percent that it’s going to happen, but whoever got him at $14 got a steal.
Of course, one issue with Yoshida is that a big piece of his value comes from his excellent contact skills, which give him a nice batting average baseline. A .290 batting average can be very helpful if you don’t buy too many similar batting average hitters, but you have to be careful to balance by also adding raw power and steal guys regardless of their batting averages.
The prices help put the players on an index of value for comparison’s sake, but are less helpful in putting together an efficient roster. That’s of equal importance.
LAST NIGHT’S MOCK
This is one data point containing 345 other data points, in a format you may not play. But click the image of the draft grid and you can see the whole draft results:
SHOPPING
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024 Softcover ($19.99) The $9.99 Kindle version can be found on the same page.
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024 PDF ($12)
Ron Shandler’s Fantasy Expert is out soon. It’s a fun history of our game, from the beginning right up til about 2000. I wrote the Foreword. The publisher is offering a special deal up until the release date. 30 percent off! CLICK HERE on the Triumph Books website and enter the Promotion Code EXPERT30 in the shopping cart. This offer expires on February 20, 2024.
HOUSEKEEPING
After the signature, below, you’ll find behind the paywall links to the Position X Position lists, which are seeing small adjustments as I go through them.
When I’m done with position reviews this week I’ll post the final updated Pos X Pos charts for subscribers, reflecting the changes.
When Will I See You Again Dept.: I’ll be knocking down outfielders and pitchers this week. May not get to DH until next week. We’ll see. Pitchers and Catchers, but so far not Blake Snell, are coming!
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