THE NEWS HOUR
The Pirates signed Yasmani Grandal as Henry Davis’s backup. Grandal is still acceptable defensively, but he has struggled at the plate the last two years. He’s gone from walking 23.2 percent of the time in 2021 to 8.9 percent last year. Davis will presumably see much of the Bucco’s playing time behind the plate and Grandal will be a fine endgame catcher in NL-only leagues.
When Shintaro Fujinami bombed as a starter last year, not much was expected of him after he moved to the pen, and he delivered! A 5.14 ERA while working as a reliever was not great, especially while walking 33 hitters in 61.3 innings. He was better than when he started, but even though he has good stuff the control issues mean expectations have to be low to start this year.
The Marlins traded Peyton Burdick to the Orioles for cash! He struck out nearly half his 37 plate appearances in the majors last year, and 36.6 percent in Triple-A. Burdick was a third-round pick in 2019 and was considered at the time to be a future power-hitting centerfielder, but the contact issues have stalled his ascent, even after whacking 24 homers last year in Triple-A. The Orioles seem to have a busload of outfield prospects and NRIs, so Burdick’s chances of making the big league club are small, but maybe with a solid season in Triple-A he can get himself back on track.
Jurickson Profar re-signed with the Padres recently, becoming their third outfielder. They have the opposite problem as the Orioles. He’s coming off a bad year in Colorado, and by almost every Statcase measure his skills are in serious decline. For instance, he used to have above-average speed, now he’s in the 13th percentile. He makes plenty of contact, but his hard-hit percentage is 12. A team needs three outfielders, but it’s hard to see Profar making much of a mark this season.
AI Can’t Figure Out the Grip
THE NEXT-TO-LAST OUTFIELD TIER
We never run out of outfielders.
There are so many that we’re going to finish them up tomorrow.
Kris Bryant has struggled with injuries in recent years, so it’s hard to judge what we’re going to get if he can stay healthy. At this price, you can take a shot and not feel too badly burned if he’s on the IL again in May.
Brandon Marsh’s price was weak before the news of his bum knee and surgery broke. He isn’t slated to miss too much time and he earned $12 and $15 the last two years. At this price, the former power-speed prospect gets another chance from me, enthusiastically.
The problem for Austin Hays, who earned $17, $15, and $18 the last three years, is all the talent bubbling up from the Orioles farm. If Heston Kjerstad and Colton Cowser are ready for the big team, where is Hays going to play? I’m taking the discount, figuring the Os will more likely trade him (to the Padres?) than have him ride the pine.
Henry Davis played outfield last year in the majors but will be the Pirates main catcher this year. He only hit .213, but with catcher eligibility in a week or two after the start of the season in most leagues, he can be a sneaky add who should hit the ball far when he does hit it. As a 22-year-old, Mike Zunino hit five homers in 193 plate appearances, walked 8.3 percent of the time, and struck out 25.4 percent. The next year he had 476 PA, hit 22 homers, walked 3.6 percent, and struck out 33.2 percent. There was a price to pay for him to add power. Davis had 255 plate appearances last year, hit seven homers, walked 9.8 percent of the time, and struck out 27.1 percent. Pretty similar to the young Zunino. Will Davis also pay a price?
Though Jose Siri hit 25 homers and stole 12 bases last year, he earned only $11 because he struck out so much. He’s a solid defender with an okay (not great) career .741 OPS against righties. Against lefties it’s a .607, so he’s going to platoon. You have to decide if you want the production given the at-bat restrictions and what will likely be a small batting average (and a worse OBP). It’s kind of like that old joke: The food was lousy and the portions were so small!
I mentioned Colton Cowser and Heston Kjerstad in the news section. They’re down here in the $6 level because of their promotion uncertainty. Cowser is a walk-machine but comes with a fair amount of swing-and-miss. The Orioles used him against righties last year, almost exclusively. He didn’t show his power in his 77 major league plate appearances. Kjerstad was the Arizona Fall League MVP. Drafted No. 2 overall out of Arkansas in 2020, he struggled with heart issues and didn’t get back onto a ball field until 2022. He’s a big slugger type who can generate big power, and he hit two homers in his 33 major league plate appearances last summer. He also struck out 10 times. He did hit 21 homers in Double-A and Triple-A last year with .310 and .298 batting averages, but he is not gifted defensively so his options are limited. Will these guys push aside Austin Hays? Until they do it shouldn’t cost too much if you think one or the other eventually will.
HOUSEKEEPING
After the signature, below, you’ll find behind the paywall links to the Position X Position lists, which are seeing small adjustments as I go through them.
When I’m done with position reviews this week I’ll post the final updated Pos X Pos charts for subscribers, reflecting the changes.
I’m still working on the spreadsheet with prices, projections, and games played data. Maybe tomorrow! Thanks for your patience.
When Will I See You Again Dept.: The outfielders at the bottom of the barrel will be surveyed tomorrow. Thanks for your comments, questions, arguments, and news.
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