ASK ROTOMAN
If you were in an AL-only league and keeping Gunnar Henderson, would you play him at SS and target a 3B in the draft, or vice versa? I can eyeball the list and see who's there but I'm curious which set of players you'd rather be shopping in.
“Personal Shopper”
Dear PS,
Players in AL-only and NL-only 12-team leagues know that positional differences don’t mean much. A home run is a home run, whether a catcher or an outfielder hits it, and they count the same in the standings.
That affects pricing by not affecting prices, where stats are always worth the same no matter the player’s position, but a funny thing happens with roster construction. Because we don’t know the actual value of the players we’re bidding on, the depth of talent at a position can affect the bidding.
Let’s take a look at SS and 3B:
The blue SS line floats above the 3B line until we get to player 28 or so, which is about the number at each position taken in a mixed 15-team league.
So, what happens? We know someone is going to pay $41 to $43 or in that area for Bobby Witt Jr., the highest-paid shortstop, and we know someone is going to pay between $33 and $36, or so, for Jose Ramirez, the highest-paid third baseman, but as the auction goes along conditions change.
For the first 20 or so shortstops, each step is a significant but regular dropoff for the Top 12 or so, but all are solid contributors. The difference in value at third baseman number 20 isn’t that big, but look at the shape of the 3B line. Four very good third basemen, but then a quick drop to a plateau of sorts, with eight guys between $23 and $20, and then it plunges again, to $16 and $15.
I don’t know about you, but when I’m in an auction and I see that the last of a cluster of players is about to go off the board, I’m tempted to go an extra buck. Or two. And so are others. It’s a rational response and even if you resist the urge to bump it feels bad, because the next group of players isn’t nearly as good. That’s a way to squander your budget.
Bidding on shortstops should be much less fraught. As each one goes another waiting in line isn’t too much worse. There’s no need to fret or overbid. And chances are good that a player you particularly like will go for less than you expect. Unless it’s Elly De La Cruz. For years, that was Corey Seager for me, but I’m afraid the cat is now out of the bag on that one.
As for Gunnar Henderson, I think it’s good to keep in mind that having him gives you one of the Top 4 third basemen out there. But it also gives you one of the Top 7 shortstops, and that flexibility will allow you not to panic playing the third base field. You’ll be able to go where the bargains are.
It’s important to remember that the effect here isn’t huge. The Top 12 shortstops are projected to earn 53 percent of the money spent on the left side of the shiftless infield. The Top 24? About the same. Meaning that the third basemen are projected to earn about 47 percent.
There is also a lot of multiposition carryover, with players like Henderson and Del La Cruz being on both lists. That redundancy is why these lists go so deep. When you make your actual draft lists you’re going to need to pick 24 catchers, 12 players at each infield position, and 12 more at middle infield and corner infield. There are 10 players with 20 or more games at each shortstop and third base in the majors last year, and five of them also qualify at second base. There will be mixing and matching.
By the way, in deeper leagues, position scarcity matters much more. That’s because the last player at each position, let’s say the 25th, should cost a buck. Imagine in this chart, all the lines converging on the right side at the $1 level. You’ll be paying the same $1 for the last shortstop, who has an index of $14, as you would the last third baseman, who has an index of $10. (The prices here are for a 24-team mixed league, with a similar scale as AL- and NL-only.)
Sincerely,
Rotoman
THIRD BASE TRAILERS
Let me start with what I finished with yesterday when DJ LeMahieu wasn’t on the chart.
Aaron Boone is saying that DJ LeMahieu will get a shot at being the Yankees leadoff hitter. I see a guy in free fall, as do the NFBC drafters, but we might both be wrong. Still, I’m not bumping him up.
Photo: Erik Drost - MLB All-Star Red Carpet Parade
That’s a nice shot of LeMahieu, who often looks a little goofy in photos. Here’s the bottom of the third base list:
There is potential here, but not much reason to get excited.
Zach McKinstry has the strong side of the platoon, a little power, and a little more speed. He earned $6 last year playing more or less full-time.
The inability to hit righties has hobbled the oft-hobbled Nick Senzel. He’s never really demonstrated in the big leagues the talent everyone thought he’d bring. Consider him post-post hype.
Questions about playing time and his lack of power and stolen bases dim Andruw Monasterio’s appeal.
Abraham Toro has the third base job in Oakland, after spending most of 2023 in Triple-A. He only has 934 major league plate appearances in his career, but it seems like more. I don’t think that’s a good thing. Jordan Diaz struggled defensively last year and will likely be backing Toro up. Diaz is young but does not have an impact offensive game even if he gets the glove in order.
The lesson learned? You do not want to be fishing in these waters.
SHOPPING
Rotoman Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024 Softcover ($19.99) The $9.99 Kindle version can be found in the same place.
Rotoman Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024 PDF ($12)
Ron Shandler’s Fantasy Expert. I wrote the Foreward.
HOUSEKEEPING
After the signature, below, you’ll find behind the paywall links to the Position X Position lists, which are seeing small adjustments as I go through them.
When I’m done with position reviews next week I’ll post the final updated Pos X Pos charts for subscribers, reflecting the changes.
When Will I See You Again Dept.: A couple of things are in the works for tomorrow, including Top Outfielders.
Thanks for your comments, questions, arguments, and news.
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Sometime in the next few days a link with appear in the Subscribers area to a spreadsheet with the prices and projections.
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Thank goodness it’s almost Friday.
Sincerely,
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