WHIT MERRIFIELD SIGNS
Surprisingly, he signs with the Phillies, because they have an excellent second baseman. It appears Merrifield will sub in for Brandon Marsh if he’s not ready by Opening Day and perhaps platoon with him as the season proceeds. Plus, he’ll be available if Bryson Stott needs a breather or gets hurt. I’ve cut Merrifield down to 375 at-bats and $9, meaning he’s only rosterable in mixed leagues if you really need steals. In NL-only he could be helpful as a middle infielder.
A LOOK AT OBP PRICING
Here’s the king of OBP (and the Phillies Roberto Clemente Award nominee):
Nobody walks the walks like Kyle Schwarber. Here is a list of the hitters who were worth at least $6 more in OBP fantasy leagues than in BA leagues.
The math doesn’t always look right because of rounding.
In OBP leagues, walks count as much as hits. Hitters benefit from walks, and counting them makes sense because in the fantasy game walks have always counted against pitchers.
When we switched Tout Wars from BA to OBP we got some surprising objections from touts who said that the greater randomness of BA was a feature, not a bug. The argument was that if we knew the skills of all the players there would be no surprises. Um, no. Plenty of surprises still, in part because even the players who walk the most, like Scharber, walk just 17 percent of the time. Juan Soto walked 18 percent of the time last year.
Here’s a comparison of Schwarber’s Hit and Walk percentages since 2017:
Not a big difference. How about a hitter who walks less?
That’s Jose Ramirez.
It turns out for most hitters consistency is a thing. Averages and walk rates fluctuate in pretty similar ways. What OBP does is reward those hitters who are patient enough to draw walks, recognizing their value, and their contribution to winning. Just as WHIP reward pitchers who don’t walk guys. That seems like a good thing.
Here are the guys whose value is hurt most in OBP leagues:
Not walking doesn’t mean you’re a bad hitter, but it changes the values relatively. Luis Arraez is our best hitter for batting average, but he ranks eighth in OBP.
You can call up the complete list here.
I favor using OBP because it is a better reflection of a hitter’s value than batting average alone is. But you should play the way you and your league-mates prefer.
What about pitcher prices in OBP leagues? They should cost the same as in a BA league.
ASK ROTOMAN
Hey,
I am in a 12 man, standard scoring league where we get up to 4 keepers. The 4 keepers are your first 4 picks each year so it doesn't matter if they were picked up on waivers or anything like that the year before.
4 OF, 2 Utils, no CI or MI positions. There are also people in my league that will reach for young talent.
Pick 4 from the following 6
Yordan Alvarez
Pete Alonso
Corey Seager
Bobby Witt Jr
Bryce Harper
Jackson Holliday
I am leaning toward Alvarez, Alonso, Witt and Holliday.
Thanks,
“Ho-tel, Mo-tel, Holli-day Inn”
Hey,
Here are earnings the last three years for:
Corey Seager: $16, $22, $36
Bryce Harper: $34, $21, $25
Jackson Holliday: -, -, -
Now, this isn’t fair to young Jackson, who was apparently born to play ball. But even if your league allows you to keep a player forever there are problems with picking Holliday over Harper or Seager.
For one, Holliday may not start the year in the majors. This is less likely than before the adoption of the current CBA, but all the Orioles are committed to right now is giving him a shot at the big leagues this spring. It’s possible he’ll struggle and be sent down. He only has 91 plate appearances in Triple-A.
Also, he could make the team and then struggle at the big league level. Hitting major league pitchers is different than hitting Matt Holliday throwing batting practice (see video link above). There’s no guarantee he’s going to hit the ground running, and no reason for the team to keep him up if he’s struggling.
Thirdly, and perhaps most saliently, he’s a line drive hitter with great strike zone judgment and patience. He hit 12 homers last year in 581 plate appearances in four levels. with a decreasing ISO with each promotion. And, he stole 24 bases, which isn’t bad, but he was thrown out nine times, which isn’t an indicator of big stolen base numbers just yet.
All this could change. Everyone says Holliday has mad skills with the bat, he’s young, and he could get stronger, but more importantly he is this year’s shiny object. Sitting atop nearly every prospect list, he starts to feel inevitable and instantly super, but the fact is that he isn’t, and Seager and Harper already are super.
Seager is recovering from January sports hernia surgery, and may not be ready for Opening Day, but even if he misses a month he’s likely to have a better fantasy season than Holliday. And after two recent partial seasons interrupted by TJ, Harper is once again healthy. Take your choice there.
But let those seduced by the promise of youth overpay for Holliday this year, and wonder if, after he hits 10 homers and steals 10 bases and hits .270, he’ll be kept next year. Because that would be the only justification for holding him this year.
Sincerely,
Rotoman
DEAR READERS
The link to the Editors Letter and Why We Did section was broken in yesterday’s newsletter. Here it is fixed:
One casualty of the mad race to get Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024 to the printers was the editor’s letter and Why We Did sections.
If you would like to read them (for free) click here to download.
SELLING STUFF
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024, softcover book edition ($19.99), and Kindle edition ($9.99), are available at Amazon.
The PDF version ($12) is available by clicking here
Ron Shandler’s Fantasy Expert is available at Amazon now. I wrote the Foreword.
Les Leopold’s Wall Street’s War on Workers, about mass layoffs and how financialization undermines democracy, is out this week. I did a lot of the data work and was an editor.
HOUSEKEEPING
After the signature, below, you’ll find behind the paywall links to the Position X Position lists, which are seeing small adjustments as I go through them.
You will also find a link to the Excel spreadsheet with projections, prices, position stuff, and prospect lists. If you don’t like Excel and would prefer a different format (Google Sheet? Excel Online, other) please let me know.
When Will I See You Again Dept.: Wednesday, back to starting pitchers.
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Have a great week!
Sincerely,
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