So-called Expert Leagues Weigh In

A Look at the American League

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Chase DeLauter, out 8 to 12 weeks: The Indians OF prospect only has 27 Triple-A plate appearances, in large part because of slow advances through the minors due to injuries, so he was going to start the season in the minors, but now his season debut there won’t come until late-May or June. That jeopardizes a major league callup later this season.

Mike Moustakas, retired: Cross him off your sleeper lists, he’s retiring as a Royal. One of my favorite players, coming up he always seemed overwhelmed, at first, then took the next necessary step to be a solid major league starter. In recent years, the faith that he would overcome was not rewarded, but best of luck, Mike!

Drake Baldwin, Opening Day starter? The Braves catching prospect might begin the season as the team’s starting catcher after Sean Murphy fractured a rib. He’s got good discipline and contact skills, as well as some power, which might make him a sneaky-late catcher play. Though when Murphy returns, later in April, Baldwin might return to Triple-A to play regularly. And Baldwin, who is not on the Braves 40-man, may not get the call at all. At least, not yet.

Parker Meadows, could miss Opening Day: He’s got a bum arm with a nerve issue that needs rest to resolve, maybe next week, maybe next month, certainly someday, and since he won’t be able to work out until it heals itself, he’ll need rehab to build back up after he’s healthy. Nothing to panic about yet, but an uncertain situation.

Hector Neris, signs NRI with Braves: After an off year during which he saved 18 games, he now must earn a spot in the Braves bullpen. Assuming he earns the spot if he returns to his usual form, he should be in the closer-in-waiting discussion.

Home Run Leader Vinny Capra. Photo: By Joel Dinda - Flikr, CC BY 2.0,

Spring Training Home Run Leaders: Vinny Capra, Brewers (4), Jose Siri, Junior Caminero, Elly De La Cruz, Trayce Thompson, Gabriel Rincones Jr (3).

Poll results: The vast majority of you have your drafts coming up. I’ll keep updating the news, talk about position battles and lineups, and look at how the market is developing. Feel free to send questions, too.

Let’s Talk About American League Expert Prices

We’ve gotten the results of the CBS Sports AL and NL experts leagues, and LABR, the AL and NL expert leagues run by Steve Gardner over at USA Today. LABR was started in the mid-90s. CBS has been around for quite a while, but not that long.

An important thing to note is that every year the CBS drafters go more stars and scrubs than LABR, so the prices of the stars are usually higher, and the players taken later are usually cheaper. Some of this might be because CBS has their auction earlier, but LABR this year was only a week after CBS, so part of it has to do with the strategies of the touts in each league.

I thought we might learn something looking at some of the outliers, the places where my prices least align with the drafters in the two expert leagues. Today, AL, tomorrow or Friday, depending on when I get it done, the NL.

AL Hitters

Brent Rooker, DH Athletics: I have him at $31, he earned $39 last year, but the two leagues each paid him $27. Not a dramatic difference, but the $30 line is a bit of benchmark. Rooker had a wonderful year in 2024, but I don’t expect him to steal 11 bases again, and he’s not going to hit .293. I’m dropping him below the line to $29.

Corey Seager, SS Rangers: I have Seager at $26 and thought I was aggressive on him, but both leagues paid $29 for him. I know he’s worth $29 if he plays, but the pile of injuries over the years shouldn’t be forgotten. I want a little discount.

Zach Neto, SS Angels: One reason to run this exercise is to price injury expectations. I have Neto with 473 at bats projected, earning $23, and I give him a price of $24. The two leagues paid him $17 and $14, respectively. Ariel Cohen’s projection system prices him at $19, with 445 at bats, so I’m knocking a few dollars off, but it looks like he’ll be my shortstop when he returns at some point in April.

Gleyber Torres, 2B Tigers: He only earned $16 last year, but it was $25 the two years before that. He’s left the Yankees, has grown a beard, and has a one-year contract to prove he can still hit with authority. CBS paid $12 for him, which is ridiculous, and LABR went to $16, which is defensible, so I’m reducing my $21 bid to $19, which should be a winning bid in most leagues.

Cody Bellinger, OF/1B Yankees: His last three years were $19, $32, and $16. He does move into a nice situation in Yankee Stadium, but the expert leagues paid him $28 and $30, while I have him down for $21. I admire their enthusiasm, but he’s been too inconsistent over his career to pay for his peak performance.

Lawrence Butler, OF Athletics: I have him at $17. He earned $23 last year, but that included an unbelievable hot streak followed by a fairly modest September. Butler has a bit of the eau de Adolis Garcia about him, though he’s younger. Still, paying him in the high-20s means you’re committing to a player who has had six weeks of major league production, and a similar amount of time spent struggling. It wouldn’t surprise me if he surprised me again, but I’m not betting on it.

Jordan Westburg, 2B/3B Orioles: He earned $18 last year, and the expert leagues are paying him $25 and $24 for what? I think last year was a fairly good representation of what he can do, I don’t see much room for growth, and since he’s not a big speed guy and doesn’t have 30 homer power, you need all the pieces to align for him to do better than last year. It could happen, but I’m sticking at $16. A guy who looked to be a solid utilityman coming up comes with precarity.

Masataka Yoshida, DH Red Sox: He earned $15 last year and has just started playing in Spring Training because of a shoulder injury and post-season surgery that will limit him to DH this season. Perhaps only against righties? Okay by me. I gave him a price of $15, but the leagues each paid $2 (!!!) for him. I think that’s because they were drafting before he got back on the field, so I’m sticking where I am for now and keeping an eye on his rehab.

Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton, 3B and OF respectively, Twins: We all agreed on Lewis, at $18/19, but I had Buxton at $13 while they also have him at $18/19. Lewis, the last three years, has earned $10, $15, $3, while Buxton has been $19, $9, $18, which seems to make Buxton the better bet. Buxton is off to a good start this spring, which is meaningless, but I’m bumping him up to $16.

Esteury Ruiz, OF Athletics: I have him projected for 236 at bats and 29 steals, with a bid price of $10. The experts put him at $3 and $2, and most projections seem to have him at 125 at bats and 10 steals or so. I’m lowering my bid, the market isn’t there, but if he overcomes his bad start to Spring Training and earns any kind of role he’ll be a bargain.

Javier Baez, SS Tigers: Went in the reserve rounds of both leagues. I’m dropping my bid price to $3, but I think the Tigers will try to get some value from him, maybe in a platoon.

Jacob Wilson, SS Athletics: A strong hit tool is impressive, and he has it, but since he doesn’t have much power or speed his value is going to depend on a superior batting average and lots of at bats. That could happen for him, but too much can go wrong to count on a young contact hitter to get off to a solid start. The leagues say $10, I say $5. I’ll stay small.

Jonathan Aranda, DH/1B Rays: He’s expected to see regular time at DH, at least against righties, and while the Rays are always stirring things up, if he gets 300 at bats my $1 bid was too low. I’ve made him $5.

AL Pitchers

Bryan Woo, SP Mariners: I dropped him a few dollars last week and he’s still running a fiver ahead of the expert leagues. Be glad if you get him cheaper, but I’m pretty sure I’m right. He earned $21 last year in limited innings.

Garrett Crochet, SP Red Sox: This might be the tenth time I’ve mentioned this. Everyone loves him, me included, but he does not have the health or results history to treat as an ace. Even though the talent is there.

Tanner Houck, SP Red Sox: Earned $15 last year and I don’t see a reason he can’t at least repeat. He did wear down in the second half, as did Crochet by the way, but that’s what training is for. A 50 percent discount is too much.

Jacob deGrom, SP Rangers: They say they’re going to baby him, use him as their fifth starter, skipping turns, not going deep into games early in the season. The team and deGrom say he’s healthy, but I’m not paying $20 for a guy in such a precarious position.

Pablo Lopez, SP Twins: He’s earned $12, $17, and $12 the last three years, while his strikeout rate has declined. He throws lots of innings, so he’s near the top of the strikeout leaderboard, but I don’t see enough of a reason to risk $21 or even $18 for him.

Carlos Estevez and Lucas Erceg, RPs Royals: I have Erceg at $10 and Estevez at $9, while the average of the expert leagues is $8 for Erceg and $13 for Estevez. I guess this is all close enough not to sweat, we could end up with a Jesse Orosco/Roger McDowell situation, but we might not.

Kris Bubic, SP Royals: I have him as an endgame pickup because he doesn’t throw enough strikeouts to target, but the expert leagues have him at $6 and $5. Not a big difference, but worth a closer look. He was great last year in relief, may have the fifth rotation spot this season, and appears to have the potential to be surprisingly good. But there’s a lot that could go wrong, so I’m bumping him a dollar and keeping him in mind for dollar days.

FOR SALE

Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide A-Z 2025 is out, as you may have heard, and has nearly 300 Picks and Pans from other fantasy experts, some who play in the CBS and LABR leagues. You can buy it now!

Buy the softcover book from IngramSpark by clicking here. It’s $19.99. Order it online by clicking the link and be emboldened to bypass the Amazon monster. They only pay me half of what the monster does, but that’s okay.

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HOUSEKEEPING

I encourage your comments, suggestions, and questions. I’ve been looking at depth chart issues and position battles, but it would be great if you clued me in to those that interest you.

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Sincerely,

Thanks for reading. The Master Sheets are after the paywall, now, with a more complete update available later tomorrow.