JORGE POLANCO
I mentioned the Polanco trade to Seattle in yesterday’s news segment and was going to write him up in the second base roundup but then didn’t. Here’s what I meant to say.
Polanco has missed a lot of at-bats the last two years. First, his 2022 season ended a month early with a bum knee that didn’t get right until after the 2023 season started. He also had two IL stints over last summer because of a pulled hamstring, and then his season ended early with a sore ankle. When he did play he hit the ball harder than he ever had, though he had his highest ISO in his 2021 career year.
Photo: Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA
My biggest concern is that with the harder swinging has come a decrease in contact rate, which we see in the spike in his strikeout rate. He’s taking more walks, obviously good, but do the extra Ks mean he’s compensating for a slowing bat by triggering earlier? And if so, is that a symptom of injury or age?
The Mariners say they have checked out his health and he’s good to go, which doesn’t eliminate the injury risk factor, but the NFBC is drafting him as if he’s a $9 player, which is what he earned each of the last two years. That’s a great price that eliminates the risk. Everybody should be willing to pay that. The low price might also reflect what was a crowded situation in Minnesota, that is now a much more copacetic one in Seattle. I had Polanco down as $14 bid before the trade, nodding at his meh 2020 season and hoping for a return to 2019 and 2021, when he was healthy and earned $27 and $28 respectively.
You can’t expect a return to that level, though you can dream. Especially if you can steal him for $9 with a No. 262 pick.
Ps. Polanco is a switch-hitter who in his career overall has been better as a lefty facing righties than as a righty facing lefties. But last year he was the opposite. That isn’t necessarily a problem and the fact is he’s fine both ways, so no platoon worries. Of more concern is the move from Minnesota, where Target Field plays overall neutral run-wise though it promotes homers and doubles a bit, to Seattle, which is one of the worst hitter's parks in the game. That’s likely to make a difference, but not enough to affect an already cheap-ish price.
WHEN I WRITE THE BOOK
But I did! About one of my loves, fantasy baseball, and it did shoot up to No. 8 on the Amazon baseball books list last week. Thank you for that.
If you want to see what the fuss is about, here’s a link. More than 900 player profiles, projections, and bid prices, but alas, no picks and pans this year. It’s $20, not cheap, but it comes in the mail in a couple of days and you can carry it with you. Everywhere! There’s a link to the Kindle version on that page, too, which is half the price.
And there is a PDF version as well, which is $12.
And now back to our scheduled programming.
CRAWLING FROM THE WRECKAGE
I realize that I’ve been organizing these position roundups in two parts by covering on Day 1 the guys who will probably be taken in a 15-team mixed league, while on Day 2 I’m covering the endgame guys in the 12-team only leagues. The lists are longer than the number of players who will be taken because multiposition players appear on multiple lists. And some guys will be sent to the minors, or sign in Japan or Korea, or not sign at all.
I didn’t set out to do that, but it does make sense. Mixed leaguers shouldn’t feel left on the second day, because we’re sure to find some bottom-of-the-barrel picks in the second half who by the end of the season will be playing in mixed-league lineups.
You’ve tried the best, now here’s the rest:
Right off the bat, the NFBC goes all negative on the youngster Brice Turang and the veteran Jake Cronenworth. They collectively say that Turang is a $5 player and Cronenworth a $4 in our imaginary 24-team mixed league.
Turang’s rookie season wasn’t the greatest, but he did earn $5. He just didn’t hit the ball hard enough to do much damage, ranking 247th of 258 qualified hitters in Hard Hit %. But he did put the ball in play, he’s fast, and he’s a good shortstop, which means he should get better. He might platoon, he was inept against lefties last year, but if that brings his batting average up that’s all to the good, especially for a guy with the speed to steal 30 bases if he gets the chances.
Cronenworth’s season ended in late August when he was hit on the wrist with a pitch, suffering a fracture that ended his sorry season. Just before that season started he signed a seven-year extension that begins this year, this after having a down 2022. This should be concerning to us because the Padres don’t seem to have done much right in recent years, and all indications are that Cronenworth has just not been as good (read, strong) the last two years. Hitting the ball less hard and more in the air than he did in his strong 2021 season. Weaker flyballs are not a good thing. Still, $4 is what he earned last year after earning $16 in 2022. Smart deep players will say “five,” “six,” and, at least, “seven” when the auctioneer tries to put the hammer down on Cronenworth.
I pictured Josh Rojas getting more at-bats this year, but the Polanco addition in Seattle makes that harder to see. Expect more like what he did last year.
Amed Rosario and Brendan Rodgers are getting no love from the NFBC set. Rosario is in a tough spot, behind Tim Anderson on the short list of available shortstops in a market that’s pretty much filled up. Still, he earned $14 last year and it’s hard to imagine that some team isn’t going to use him as their utility guy. He can play in the outfield as well as shortstop. He makes contact and is fast, so he should be able to produce. For now, jump on the bargain. His price will go up when he signs.
Rodgers hurt his shoulder and needed surgery during spring training last year. He came back in July, was rusty, but had an .803 OPS in September. He has historical earnings of $14, $18, and $0 for the last three years. He doesn’t steal bases and isn’t a huge power hitter, but if he plays regularly in the best hitters’ park in the majors $9 is going to be a bargain.
I’m no lover of Llover Peguero, but I think he’s going to be able to make much more contact in his second season in the majors, and his power and speed are going to make him a productive fantasy player. I have to admit, I could be wrong, he was overmatched last year, but he’s young and good enough defensively for the Pirates to be patient.
Kolten Wong’s demise happened so suddenly that I’m having a hard time believing it. Everybody else seems to be buying in that he’s done, so my bid here is overblown. But if he signs and I need a middle infielder in the endgame I’m going to take him over a lot of other guys at the bottom of this list.
Elvis Andrus is kind of in the same boat as Wong, but he’s a couple of years older. Where he signs, if he signs, will matter a lot with him.
Two young bottom-of-the-barrel second basemen are Justin Foscue and Andruw Monasterio. Foscue is a contact machine with doubles power and no speed who is blocked in Texas. He is also not much of a second baseman. Think of him as a right-handed Jeff McNeil, which is maybe why he hasn’t put up the gaudy batting averages. He does against lefties.
Monastario played all over the infield last year for the Brewers and may end up in that situation again this year if Brice Turang doesn’t hit and Tyler Black isn’t promoted to play third. Both of these guys are deservedly cheap now but could be helpful if their roles get larger.
Finally, Jose Caballero was acquired by the Rays shortly after the team announced that Taylor Walls would not be ready (after hip surgery) for Opening Day. Caballero struggled against righties last year, but is very fast and a slick fielder who will steal bases. Since he’s a better fielder than Walls, who also struggles against righties at the plate, we might see a lot of Caballero this year. His batting average might be a challenge, but the steals could be aplenty.
HOUSEKEEPING
After the signature, below, you’ll find behind the paywall links to the Position X Position lists, which are seeing small adjustments as I go through them.
Tomorrow we’ll look at some shortstops.
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