Season of the Witch
Or should I say which? As in which team signed Yoshinobu Yamamoto? See below...
AN IMPORTANT NOTE FOR SUBSCRIBERS
I hate to start the newsletter off with business, but I learned something about Substack that I have to talk about.
Last year, when I offered Annual and Monthly subscriptions, I said upfront that I was going to stop posting regularly on April 15th or so. My work is draft prep, like the printed Fantasy Baseball Guide, and while I play all season long I also travel during the summer and it makes it hard to cover the landscape during the season. So, on about April 15th, I suspended subscriptions. That way new folks couldn’t sign up.
Alas, I learned this week that when a Substack writer suspends a subscription Substack adds the suspended time remaining on the subscription when it is resumed. That makes sense if the Substack writer suspends because they’re taking an unscheduled break, going on vacation, or whatever, but it doesn’t work for a seasonal project like the Guide.
The practical result is that everyone who paid and subscribed last year on an Annual basis now has, according to Substack, a subscription that runs through next fall.
That wasn’t my intention and I hope it wasn’t yours. As a remedy, I’m going to cancel all of last year’s paid annual subscriptions in the coming weeks as the one-year mark comes up. I’m sorry for the inconvenience, but if you’d like to subscribe again please subscribe again. I thank you for your support.
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And once again, I’ll be publishing here until mid-April, with monthly pricing updates inseason.
I’ll also be asking Substack to create a Seasonal membership to cover situations like mine.
I recognize that this might be controversial, and I don’t think it’s better than Donovan’s version, but this is today’s sound. I think it’s pretty catchy, and my daughter likes it, too. Plus, Betty Boop.
THE WIRE
Notes on the news. And if you haven’t watched The Wire, a great HBO series, consider it highly recommended. It explains too much of the world, grimly and entertainingly.
Michael Wacha, signed by the Royals: The oft-injured hurler turned down $32M over the next two years to stay with San Diego after having his best season since 2017 (the last time he made 30 starts). I thought he should have taken the money because I find it hard to imagine another team offering him more, and the Royals didn’t. They signed Wacha for $32M with an opt-out after one year, which is extra value if not more money. His 2023 season featured a low-ish BABIP, a high-ish LOB%, and his best HR/FB rate since 2015. That last has been a problem for him throughout his career but seems to be trending down as he adjusts his mix from more fastballs to more changeups. The temptation after two positive years will be to trust that he's got things under control. Maybe, but I'm not going too far on a guy whose limit seems to be about 125 innings.
Matt Carpenter, released by Braves: What the heck? The Braves are playing a different kind of game. They’ve now picked up $4M of Carpenter’s salary to acquire a 29-year-old reliever with a 5.08 career ERA (3.24 xFIP, 4.70 xERA).
Freddy Pacheco, re-signed by the Tigers: Showed promise in 2022 with improved control in Triple-A but ended up with June 2023 TJ. He might be back about midseason but is unlikely to have a significant role this season. If he reasserts his dominance with his big fastball and powerful slider he'll move into higher-leverage situations at some point.
Hunter Renfroe, signed by the Royals: If he jacks a few more and hits closer to .250 than .230, which he should, he could earn the way he did in 2021 and 2022, but his skills showed some fading last year and his defense in right field right now is of dubious value. The Angels ditched him last summer because they hoped to save some money, and the Reds ditched him because he was hurt and they needed players, but he should have a long leash with the shopaholic Royals.
Jeter Downs, claimed by the Yankees: Of course, he's a perfect fit on the Yankees, though it will be surprising (and a sign things have gone wrong) if he gets much major league playing time this year.
Photo: Minda Haas Kuhlmann. Twitter: @minda33. Instagram: minda.haas
Jack Flaherty, signed by the Tigers: He stayed healthy, so 2023 has to count as something of a win, but the results were not so good. The small number of innings after Baltimore traded for him was disastrous and landed him in the pen by the season’s end, but they were mostly the product of seven homers allowed. Homers have always been his bugaboo when he’s been healthy, but in Detroit he moves into the best homer-suppression park in the AL. That’s a reason to take a small risk.
Andrew McCutchen, re-signed by the Pirates: Given his age and the partial Achilles’ heel tear that ended his season last year, coming back seemed unlikely, but the Pirates have signed him on for another year. He was still effective last year, but the injury risk this year is sky-high. Maybe the DH role will protect him, but for me he's an endgame fill-in at best.
Adrian Houser, traded to the Mets: Missed the first month last year with a groin pull, and ended the season with elbow inflammation and a series of ineffective starts. Traded to the Mets in the offseason, they may have him in the rotation. His pitch-to-contact style produces many ground balls but not a lot of strikeouts. Probably best for fantasy in a streaming role if he sticks in the rotation. The danger is he might end up sliding into long relief, which would crush what little fantasy value he has. That is if he stays healthy.
Tyrone Taylor, traded to the Mets: Elbow problems for the first four months cost him playing time, but he finished strong. A bottom-of-the-barrel sort of outfielder whose power-speed combo is enticing, but whose aggressive approach generates a lot of outs.
A NEW BEST YAMAMOTO IN THE GAME
Apparently, even mlb.com says “according to a source,” Yoshinobu Yamamoto is going to sign a 12-year deal with the Dodgers. Worth $325M, YY must still pass a physical and the Dodgers will pay him a $50M signing bonus and close to a $51M posting fee to the Orix Buffaloes of the NPB
Photo: orixbaseballclub
Apparently, the Yankees and the Mets offered similarly large money. And apparently, the contract will have opt-outs, though how many and when hasn’t been disclosed yet.
But you know all that. What will Yamamoto mean for fantasy players? Here’s the profile I wrote for him last week:
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, signs with the Dodgers: The safe thing is to take the moderate position. Yamamoto will be good, maybe very good, but there will likely be a period of transition. And there might be, but looking at video of him during the World Baseball Classic and reading Eno Sarris's comparison of Yamamoto’s pitch tracking data describing the speed and shape of his pitches in Japan, compared to similar data on major league pitchers, leads him to say: "We can say with a tiny bit more certainty that he’s like a Gausman with Bassitt’s curve and Eflin’s command, which would be a dominant combination but also has not necessarily existed in one human being before." Of course, Eno also says, "Nobody knows what they’ll get for sure," but concludes that Yamamoto looks like an ace, but a short one and so somewhat more likely to break down than a bigger pitcher. That sounds right to me, so he may turn out to be a bargain no matter what the fantasy cost. Or close. With the potential for disaster if he ends up busting or getting hurt. The bidding should be fun!
Right now I have a roto price for him of $26, which puts him in the middle of the pack of ace pitchers going into this season. My guess is that unless he has a terrible spring training he’s going to go north of $26, tipping over past $30 in most leagues, with the potential to approach $40. That’s healthy deGrom territory, and while YY almost certainly won’t earn that he could get close enough that he’s worth it.
I probably won’t go there, but I’ll be tempted. He looks that good.
One factor is that last year’s top pitchers mostly struggled, and many of last year’s top pitchers don’t look like your standard aces. It’s hard to plunk down money on pitchers who have struggled, and so the unknown but highly vaunted shiny object shines even more brightly.
As for the Dodgers, I was not shocked by the immediate call from so-called fans for a salary cap. The strongest argument for a cap is that it will level the playing field, but that hasn’t been the case in the NFL and NBA. MLB doesn’t have a competitive balance problem compared to those salary-capped leagues.
The weaker argument has something to do with keeping players from making so much money, but that’s nonsense. If the players don’t make the money, the owners will.
The solution is to eliminate public subsidies given to sports teams. Might that cause economic struggles in the smaller markets? Maybe, but those teams should be subsidized by the league’s wealthier teams. They need legitimate teams to play against.
HAPPY HOLIDAYS
We’re about halfway through the holiday season. I’m taking a few days off next week, but should get out two newsletters if the news warrants it.
Enjoy and let’s brace ourselves for the new year.
HOUSEKEEPING
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