WEAKENED UPDATE
Tristan Beck had surgery to clear an aneurysm in his upper arm and the Giants put him on the 60 Day IL. He was expected to serve as a long man and spot starter, so not much fantasy value was expected, but he showed enough last year to suggest he might be able to do the job if he got a chance.
Elvis Andrus signed with the Diamondbacks to a minor league contract. His 2023 was weak enough that this is not exciting news, unless you’re Jace Peterson. But Peterson has a major league contract, so probably not even he is concerned.
In more Giants news, they signed Matt Chapman to a deal very similar to Cody Bellinger’s in Chicago, except that Bellinger gets about $30M more. Right-handed power dies at Oracle Park so Chapman’s fantasy value gets docked a bit, but J.D. Davis, who was the team’s third baseman gets pushed across the infield to become the weak-side platoonist with LaMonte Wade, and gets docked more.
The Red Sox signed CJ Cron to a minor league deal. If he can get past his back issues he could be a potent DH, but the Sox roster is crowded with players if not exactly ready talent.
HEY ROOK!
I made a chart tracking all of the major and some minor Top Prospect lists, and then devised a complicated algorithm to make a consensus ranking. The formula: Average of Rankings divided by Mentions. Sort ascending and you get a consensus ranking of the best rookies this year.
Here are the hitters:
These are sorted by their ADP, and clearly the market expectations of NFBC players do not completely align with the prospect rankings.
I did not include International players because the rankings systems don’t include them, but by the time we get to the end of this we’ll have them folded in.
What you can see in the jumbled ranks, I think, is a combination of talent assessment, hype, and playing time potential. Noelvi Marte is not nearly as good a hitter as Jackson Holliday, though he is good, but his path to playing time is more solid early this season.
The rookie pitcher list shows a similar jumble:
Only shorter.
It’s important to remember that while these two lists contain the creme de la creme of this year’s rookie class, many other rookies will make teams to start this season or will be called up once things are underway. They won’t have the status, but they can make a difference in your fantasy leagues.
I’m late compiling these charts, so I’m sending this off now. Tomorrow we’ll get into some depth about who these guys are and why you may or may not want to invest in them this season.
That newsletter will be for Subscribers only.
ASK ROTOMAN
Hi Peter,
I'm probably the only one in the dark about this, but I'm not sure how to interpret the categories P$, Bid, and PK5 on the spreadsheet. Please let me know individually, or in an email to all if you think it necessary.
Thanks!
”Lost in Space”
Dear Lost:
I’m sure many others are wondering why I didn’t include a legend in the spreadsheet. I’m wondering, too. This week’s update will have one.
The short answer is:
P$ is Alex Patton’s valuation of the projected stats.
BID is an empty column in which you can enter your bid values before your auction, or your ranks/tiers before you draft.
PK5 is my Big Price, a bid value based on a 24-team mixed 5x5 league using BA and a $260 budget.
I hope this helps,
Dr. Zachary Smith
BOOK NEWS
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024 was No. 6 on the Amazon Baseball bestsellers list last night. It’s up there with some good company:
If you’d like to buy the handsome large-format Softcover ($19.99) version or the Kindle ($9.99) version click here.
No matter what you hear, the projections do include pitcher strikeouts.
The PDF is also available, free for so-called Annual subscribers (who also get access to the archives, but be sure to know that the newsletter goes on hiatus on April 15, except for monthly price updates, and let me know if you pay so I can send you a copy), and for $12 by clicking here.
HOUSEKEEPING
After the signature, below, you’ll find behind the paywall links to the Position X Position lists, which I’m no longer updating. Price changes will show up in the Master Sheet.
You will also find a link to the Master Sheet spreadsheet with projections, prices, and position stuff. Let me know if you have any questions or comments.
When Will I See You Again Dept.: Tomorrow we’ll have more to say about this year’s rookies.
Thanks for your comments, questions, arguments, and news.
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See you tomorrow!
Sincerely,
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