TELL ROTOMAN
How’d you do?
I'd say that is a really bad draft. Most of those guys aren't on my radar in a 16 team draft with 26 man rosters. Mondesi? Bubba Thompson? Even Swanson in the 5th seems like a huge reach for no reason. All I really can say is I'm glad I don't pay for your content.
“Saving Money”
Dear Saving:
I’d point out that it’s a 15-team draft with 23-man rosters, but that makes your point even more emphatic. In any case, you raise interesting questions that deserve explanatory answers.
First off, I found myself in the endgame needing steals because I didn’t draft enough speed in the first half of the draft. That was a mistake but not a surprise. After I saw what was happening I figured I’d add late-game speed, which is risky but can be worth it.
Mondesi is an injury risk, but a big producer if he gets past it. Thompson is a terrific athlete and looked to me like a much better hitter than he was given credit for coming up. I could have made other choices, but I have no regrets about those two.
But your singling out Dansby Swanson is interesting, not because he was such a reach. I took him at 71, his ADP these days is about 80. So maybe he would have been there at my next pick, which would have been No. 79, but maybe not. He’s a terrific hitter and I was pleased to roster him, but in looking back over my list I skipped Tommy Edman to take Swanson, and Edman would have gone a long way toward addressing my steals situation.
I even have Edman a bit higher on my list. Why didn’t I take him? I think there was a bit of an aversion to doubling up. In my first mock draft I rostered Edman at a similar place because I needed steals (Swanson went 75th in that one), and I just didn’t want to do the same thing again. In retrospect that was probably a mistake, but it’s one that grows out of drafting late in the first round. The top-notch five-category hitters are gone, so you end up with Soto and Devers and the need to chase speed after that.
There are alternative approaches when drafting in the second half of the first round. Taking a pitcher with one of your first two picks is an approach, though not for me this year. I just started a slow draft in Khang Do’s Baseball365 Draft and Hold league with the 10th pick. It’s OBP instead of BA and I took Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis, even though Tatis killed me last year. So now stolen bases are the least of my worries.
Thanks for writing,
ANOTHER APPROACH
I wrote yesterday about Tim McLeod’s Saves + Half Holds category and heard this from Ryan Carey:
My long-standing league switched to S+S+H years ago and it has worked well. Those who invest in top closers get rewarded, but it also makes it worth it to speculate on top backups, since they can still get Holds along with great ratios and K's.
I have to admit, it didn’t strike me right away that
Sv + Hld/2 = 2Sv + Hld
Do the math, they’re the same thing. A good idea x 2.
BASEBALL NEWS
I thoroughly enjoyed Tim McCarver’s broadcasting for the Mets back in the day. People loved to complain about him later, maybe sometimes with a point but too often with unearned condescension. At his best, or even when he was cruising, he could be a delightful companion at the ballgame.
There’s a story on MLB.com today about Andrew Painter, who apparently has a shot at the Phillies rotation out of camp. If he started a game before April 10th he’d be the first teenager to start since Julio Urias in 2016. We’ll have to keep an eye on him.
Andy Ashby is going to miss a couple of months with shoulder inflammation. Ashby has amazing stuff but it has to be taxing to throw that way. Now the doctors will collect.
I’m a big fan of Mike Soroka this year, coming back from two Achilles surgeries, but now he’s hobbled by a hammy and will have a slow into to camp. He’s cheap, for obvious reasons now, and something close to an ace when he’s healthy, but things aren’t looking great.
Shintaro Fujinami show up in Oakland’s camp. He throws hard and has many different pitches, but has struggled throughout his career with his control, though not always. He’s also struggled to throw innings. Undoubtedly talented, he has the potential to succeed but it’s far from assured.
CLOSERS
Torey Lovullo says he’s going to try to keep the closing situation in Arizona “fluid” this season. That likely means that Andrew Chafin, Miguel Castro, Mark Melancon, Kevin Ginkel, and Joe Mantiply will be either cheap or expensive, depending on how resolute Lovullo is.
END OF THE WEEK
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