Pitchers, Starting, Pt. 2

Up From the Lower Depths

Feb 21, 2026

∙ Paid

WARNING!

I heard from a wannabe reader of the Guide today that the download site for the PDF version was throwing a missing security credential warning. While it’s possible to get past that to the page, I never do unless I’m sure of what’s going on. Why would you?

It turned out that the company that was supposed to be sending the verification of certification emails that I could respond to in order to have the certificate renew was 1) not sending them, 2) sending them to an email address that was forwarding to a Gmail address that maybe Google was filtering out, or 3) sending them someplace else. What was for sure is they weren’t getting to me. Thus the fail.

I tried changing mail accounts to no avail, and ended up canceling that certification and went with another company. After more than an hour of trying I was set up and 10 minutes later the site was working. The direct problem doesn’t always lead to the right solution. Good to know.

If you’re interested in Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide A-Z 2026 PDF, this link should take you to the page to buy ($12) and after you pay you’ll be forwarded to a save page with a link to download the file.

Starting Pitchers, Pt. 2

The pitching lists beggar order. At the top of the list my rankings and the ADP are similar, but once you get past the aces there is disruption.

Brandon checks the runner. Photo: D. Benjamin Miller - Own work

I seem to favor good pitchers coming off injuries, like Brandon Woodruff, Emmet Sheehan, and Tyler Glasnow more than the NFBC drafters do. I’m paying them what they might earn if they pitch half a season effectively. And I think at least one of them will pitch more than half a season more than effectively.Maybe when the spring games get going and these guys pitch well their prices will increase. Or decrease, because they all end up on the IL again. I’m guessing where they will end up on average, not what all are going to produce.

The same applies to Michael King and others. But I have to be careful here. I think that today, if you bought a bundle of these four, you would get them much more cheaply than I have them priced now, which is good. With risky plays you want the lowest prices. And so, while I like this group to do well this year, my prices have edged into the mid-teens, which is a dangerous place to prospect for pitching, because while you can make fantasy profit if you pick the right guy, if you pick the wrong guy it costs you enough to really hurt.

Which is why My Perfect Pitching Plan, an annual piece since 2014, or so, and which will appear for Guide owners next week, argues that there is more profit potential with less risk by buying up cheap talents than buying guys like Woodruff, Sheehan, Glasnow, and King. A law firm I would definitely hire if my neck hurt, as theirs (or some other body part), did last year.

This story from 2025 does a good job of explaining the concept, with examples. The Guide story will have a similar format from last year.

Part of the plan is acknowledgement that year to year we don’t know. One year Martin Perez was a good fantasy pitcher. There are reasons big-league teams keep him going, but apart from that one year, he’s not a fantasy candidate. But if you had him that year you remember. I did, and why? I wanted to save on pitching so I could spend more on hitting.

The fact is that for pitchers in the endgame, who cost $1 to $5 or are drafted after No. 400 or so, nobody knows anything. If they did other players would be in there bidding and the prices would go up. So, this is fertile field for bulk buying.

When you’re looking at the endgame in your AL and NL only leagues, pick favorites.

Mine are:

David Festa, Twins: A big PICK for me last year, he ended up with elbow issues but avoided surgery, with botox(?). No lines in his face or elbows. He’s got great skills and stuff but the injury risk is high.

Bryce Elder, Braves: He’s going to have a Martin Perez year, at some point.

I really like Chris Bassitt, Orioles, Tyler Mahle, Giants, and Reid Detmers, Angels, for pennies. Okay, a $2 bill. Bassitt has smarts and Mahle and Detmers have stuff that might pay off for cheap.

My cavalcade of borderline starting objects includes Joe Boyle, Jared Jones (injury comeback), Luis Morales (impressive last fall), Max Meyer, Cade Cavalli, Troy Melton (though blocked right now), Joey Cantillo (fantastic stuff), and Kumar Rocker, because he’s weird enough to note.

But the bigger lesson is that the perfect pitching staff is matching chalk talent that succeeds with a certain amount of good starting pitching luck, because in any given fantasy season there is plenty of that to go around.

Look for the Perfect Pitching Staff 2026 roundup for details in the coming week.

THE MASTER SHEET

After a series of unspeakable and spectacular pratfalls the Master Sheet has been launched.

This is a Google Sheet which has all the data that is found in the Patton Dollar software and is available only for paid subscribers, either at pattonandco.com in the Subscribers | Downloads section or here in a link after the Paywall.

What’s in the sheet?

Biographical information
Projections
Prices of the projections, 5x5 bid prices by Rotoman, 4x4 bid prices by Alex Patton, and soon to come, Expert League prices from the CBS, LABR, and Tout Wars roto leagues.
There are also prospect ratings from Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, Keith Law, and Rotowire. (Just the number. Go to the source for the important comments.
4x4 earnings for the last three years
And comments about player status with sleep and deep sleeper picks.

The sheet will be updated every Thursday, at the least.

For buyers of the book, there will a special stats update released the first week of March for you.

Here’s a taste:

Subscribers, look for the link after the paywall after my signature.

THE STORE

Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide A-Z 2026 is for sale. Usually $20, it ON SALE price is: $19.11

The Kindle version is out, too! Price: $9.99

You can order your print and Kindle versions using this link.

If you’ve read The Guide and you like it please consider leaving a review on Amazon. The link above takes you to the page. Good reviews help get the word out. So do star ratings. Thank you.

If you’d prefer the PDF version, which you can download as soon as the payment goes through, click here. Price: $12

There is a non-Amazon version. Paypal $20 to askrotoman@gmail.com and I’ll mail you a copy when I get them. That should be this week. You should also be able to order through your local bookstore, though I don’t know how that works timing-wise.

HOUSEKEEPING

Closers and the Perfect Pitching Staff are next. Send questions if you have questions, or post comments. I try to answer them all.

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