NEWSY
No player projection I did this year has received more bad responses than that of Amed Rosario. I look at a guy who earned $24, $32, and $14 in the last three years and I see a regular with $20 potential. He’s only 29 years old. Others saw a guy on a downward trend with the bat and a highly-suspect glove playing a position deep with talent, and now, a month later, I have to admit they were right. Rosario signed yesterday with the Rays for a super-cheap $1.5M.
The Rays are a team rich with infielders. On the corners, they have Yandy Diaz, Isaac Paredes, Jonathan Aranda, Harold Ramirez, Curtis Mead, and Junior Caminero. Up the middle, they have Brandon Lowe, Jose Caballero, Curtis Mead (again), and Amed Rosario. Plus, they also signed defensive whiz Yu Chang to a minor league deal yesterday. Here’s how they line up by positions played last year and OPS versus righty and lefty pitching.
Now this is a bit of back-of-the-envelope calculation, but right now it looks to me like Yandy Diaz and Isaac Paredes should play first and third every day, unless the Rays promote Junior Caminero. Then he can play third base against lefties.
Brandon Lowe gets second base against righties, and Amed Rosario plays second against lefties. Jose Caballero gets shortstop against lefties, and Amed Rosario(!) plays shortstop against righties. He isn’t great with the bat going that way, but he’s better.
Harold Ramirez maybe finds some defensive time in the outfield, or at DH, against lefties. Or maybe he gets traded.
Jonathan Aranda can DH versus righties.
Junior Caminero and Curtis Mead, the Rays top two prospects last year, both play third base, and are likely to start the year in Triple-A, with Mead perhaps trying to get good enough at shortstop to dislodge Caballero and Rosario.
Yu Chang teaches Mead at Triple-A until someone gets hurt.
All of the above ignores real defensive skills but reflects where they played last year. And so Amed Rosario has a slim path to 500 plate appearances.
TROUBLE IS MY BUSINESS
Taking the wrong ace for your fantasy baseball team can kill your team. Many many years ago, when I was writing Ask Rotoman for ESPN, someone sent in a question:
Dear Rotoman:
I just lost David Cone for the rest of year. What should I do?
“Conehead”
Dear Conehead:
Take a deep breath, drop your head between your knees, and kiss your season good-bye.
Sincerely,
Rotoman
Not very sensitive of me, I know, but solid advice. The thing is, we all know that losing a guy we spent $25 or more dollars on is a killer, but we also know that if we don’t take an ace in the auction/draft, especially in 5x5 leagues counting strikeouts, we’re doomed to pitching mediocrity and at best a middlin’ finish.
What is a lot less clear is the killer capacity of starting pitchers who are not aces, but who are good enough to go for $10 or more. Here’s my current list of these brighter-than-glass but not-quite gems:
Most of these guys have a lower K%-BB% than the top guys, but there are a few different ways to land on this list. Let us count them.
Sonny Gray is coming off a career year and this bid is a bet he can repeat. Ambitious, but I don’t see a reason he can’t except that tendency to regress. But he wasn’t lucky last year, he was better.
Joe Musgrove has had a solid run of Sonny Gray-type career years, so he’s a much safer choice at this price.
Tyler Glasnow and Freddy Peralta look like they should be aces, and the NFBC is treating them as if they are, but their durability issues are huge. This bid is a kind of compromise between the chance they earn $30 by pitching 150 innings and earn $7 by pitching 50 innings. Just how lucky are you feeling?
Kodai Senga, Eury Perez, and Justin Steele all had good years in 2023, though the Marlins restricted Perez’s innings and his season ended early with hip pain. Each is limited in some way. Senga walks too many, Steele is a late-career breakout who looked good but is hard to believe, and the youngster Perez will be given limited innings this year.
Grayson Rodriguez struggled early last year, was sent down, and was super when he returned. The NFBC is taking him as if he’s already nearly an ace, and maybe he is, but I want to see a little more. I’m also happy to see someone spend $23 on him. It means that even if he works out, they paid something close to full freight.
Walker Buehler is coming back from injury but was an ace before he got hurt, while Jordan Montgomery is historically a solid No. 4 starter who got hot last fall. He’s yet to sign and might be a little overpriced here.
Jesus Luzardo and Joe Ryan have near-ace qualities but have yet to show the moxie to earn ace-like bucks. NFBCers are bidding them up, which means these bids probably won’t win them. That’s okay, but I would be happy to take them if they went for $14.
Tanner Bibee is getting love from the NFBC crowd, while they are cautious about Shane Bieber. Bibee looked pretty good last year, but I don’t see much reason to think he’ll be better than pretty good this year. Bieber, on the other hand, has always been very good even when he only looked pretty good. At the same price, I’d go for Bieber.
Justin Verlander has a great name and a terrific reputation, but he’s also aging and hurt now. I probably don’t have him discounted enough, but the NFBC is certainly bidding him up too high.
Hunter Greene and Carlos Rodon are selling in the NFBC as if they are $15 pitchers. This is the insidious pressure of the mid-tier starting pitching game. Greene is all potential, but unlike Grayson Rodriguez, he followed a solid first half with a declining second half, in which he walked 17 hitters in 38.7 innings. He’s got great stuff, but for me, that’s a reason to slow-walk forward with him. The promise is still there, but if you pay for the upside there is no upside. Rodon’s issue is his health and durability.
I dropped Kyle Bradish to $10, but he’s now a high-variance guy. That could be way too much, if he is shut down for the season, and way too cautious if he is back by May.
Shota Imanaga isn’t getting a smidgeon of the attention that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is, probably correctly, but he brings solid skills to the Cubs rotation. He is not as dominant, not even close, but he’s got solid control and enough swing-and-miss to be of interest. If he can control the long ball he should be alright.
I have Kutter Crawford a couple of bucks ahead of where the NFBC has him. Rotation uncertainty is an issue, though unless the Red Sox sign somebody he looks to be a lock. I’d love to get him cheaper, but there is breakout potential I want in on unless he goes sky-high. Meaning $12, maybe.
ASK ROTOMAN
Rotoman:
In a deep mono league with 15 keepers, 3-year contracts, and a 10-man bench, but no farm or Injured List, what are your recommendations for building a winner every 3 to 4 seasons?
“Mono-nuclear-oasis”
Dear MNO:
I want to say, Do what the Rays do! That’s my best answer, but I have a feeling that isn’t going to do the trick. But, frankly, I don’t know if I have a good answer.
What I know is that a deep mono league means every major leaguer and most valuable prospects will be rostered on Opening Day. So your ability to improve in-season is limited to trades.
How leagues handle trades varies widely based on the personalities of the owners and the culture of trading the league crafts. So your trading options are going to vary depending on how free-wheeling your league is and when teams that aren’t in contention this year are inclined to dump. I play in a league where at least one team usually dumps by the end of the first week of the season, and in another in which cheap traded players have their salaries increase to $15, making dumping less attractive.
In that somewhat dynasty league, with the ruthless trading from the get-go, what I’ve noticed is that some teams spend years accumulating prospects, end up with an amazing offense, and then win if the pitching falls in line. However, the most successful teams have carefully built for the present and the future at the same time. So, rather than dump and load up on prospects, they draft and trade for now and later, maybe giving up a desired prospect for a useful player for now and a prospect who is farther away for later.
Which is kind of how the Rays do it, too.
Others should feel free to jump in here. I’m sure there is no single right answer, and MNO, please elaborate if you’d like more specific thoughts. We can handle them in the comments.
Sincerely,
Rotoman
SELLING STUFF
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024, softcover book edition ($19.99), and Kindle edition ($9.99), are available at Amazon.
The PDF version ($12) is available by clicking here
Ron Shandler’s Fantasy Expert is available on Amazon now. I wrote the Foreword to this fun and intriguing look at the first twenty years of fantasy baseball’s history.
Les Leopold’s Wall Street’s War on Workers, about mass layoffs and how financialization undermines democracy, is out this week. I did a lot of the data work and was an editor.
HOUSEKEEPING
After the signature, below, you’ll find behind the paywall links to the Position X Position lists, which are seeing small adjustments as I go through them.
You will also find a link to the Excel spreadsheet with projections, prices, and position stuff.
When Will I See You Again Dept.: Thursday, more starters.
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See you tomorrow!
Sincerely,
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