NEWSDAY
Devin Williams has stress fractures in his back and will miss three months. So say reports, as yet unconfirmed, from Jeff Passan. The Brewers will likely reveal their plans soon, but expect Trevor Megill, Joel Payamps, and Abner Uribe to see more high-leverage situations. Will one emerge as closer? That might happen, but I’m ticking all three up a small amount. If Abner Uribe is the closer of the future for the Brewers, and he is, he may not quite be ready to trust.
Photo: Kevin Mattison
The Padres traded for Dylan Cease, giving up some midlevel prospects. Cease was attractive to the Padres (and the Rangers, who were rumored to be in the hunt) because he is relatively cheap this year, but has a big-league arm and might help a talented team. Both Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell would have been much pricier. Cease has punch and was a bit unlucky last year, but is not a master of control and not a front-line starter because of that.
The White Sox get Drew Thorpe, a control pitcher with a major league changeup who might get more of a shot at the majors with the Sox, but has only 30 Double-A innings under his belt so far, Jairo Iriarte, who has control issues but great stuff, Samuel Zavala, a 19-year-old outfielder yet to play above High-A, and Steven Wilson, who was an effective setup guy last year. The possibility that Wilson will be in the mix for saves in Chi-town is real. The pickin’s in that pen are slim. See below.
A catchy soundtrack for today’s notes, with nice harmonies.
By the way, there is now one spring training home run leader: Oneil Cruz. He hits the ball hard!
I want to be there when Juan Then is introduced to Tink Hence.
ROSTER PIECES START TO SETTLE INTO PLACE
Graham Pauley is not on the Padres 40-man roster, but he appears to be the team’s starting third basemen entering the season, at least against right-handed pitching. The San Diego team needs a third baseman because Manny Machado isn’t ready to play the field. Pauley was a 13th rounder in 2022 out of Duke and is known as a power bat and suspect defender, so this may not last long. Or maybe it will. Eguy Rosario is the other option. He’s a better fielder and a lesser stick.
My first impression on seeing Victor Scott in Arizona last November was that he was fast, which he is, but then he made a dopey decision on a fly ball that went on to roll to the centerfield fence for an inside the park job. I don’t know anything about Scott’s smarts but that was a dumb baseball decision. That happens, and it turns out Scott’s reputation is as a speedy centerfielder who plays great defense, a reminder to avoid snap judgements. He has a good shot to make the Cardinals Opening Day roster after a hot spring because Tommy Edman still has wrist pain. Edman was shut down today, pushing back his timetable to return deeper into April. Scott could steal a lot of bases while Edman rehabs.
Jordan Leasure has been the best pitcher in the White Sox bullpen this spring. That isn’t saying much, these are the Roster Resource projections for that bullpen today, with Steven Wilson the first line and Leasure the fourth.
Definitely not a target, but this is a devolving, I mean evolving, situation. There might be surprises.
Jared Jones and Paul Skenes join Luis L. Ortiz and Mitch Keller to bring hope to Iron City baseball fans. Jones appears ready to join the rotation at the season’s start, with Skenes perhaps arriving around June 1st if he handles Double-A and Triple-A. Jones’ bugaboo is his control and command, which will certainly be tested at the highest level. Skenes has two great pitches and struggles with control as well. I’m reminded of Jack Leiter, who was touted out of college in 2021 as major league ready, but he has struggled throwing strikes. Be hopeful for these guys, but don’t bet the boat on them out of the box.
Cedanne Rafaela was only supposed to make the Red Sox team this year if he won the starting center field job outright, but now, because Rob Refsnyder is out for a month or so, there may be another path. Rafaela is a plus plus defender in centerfield and can play shortstop and second base as well. He’s an aggressive hitter who struggled with contact in his brief time in the majors last year, but he’s young and put the ball in play in the minors, so we’ll have to see about that. He’s an exciting young player with an uncertain but promising immediate future. I had him at $9 in the last update, but I’m dropping him to $6 today. He could be an immediate success but there is too much risk of failure with the bat this year to push him higher just yet.
Adam Duvall lands back in Atlanta, on the weak side of a platoon with Jarred Kelenic, perhaps. But Kelenic is having a weak ST at the plate, so this signing can also be looked on as insurance in case the Braves bet on Kelenic doesn’t pay off. Duvall in his career is a good hitter against righties and lefties and could be a sneaky good pick for fantasy.
ROTOMAN’S FANTASY GUIDE 2024 UPDATE
Here’s a special sheet for folks who bought Rotoman’s Fantasy Guide 2024. A sheet updated through March 7.
It’s password-protected. The password is the last word in the Ronald Acuña Jr. profile. Lower case. There will be an updated version through March 14th posted tomorrow, and a link in tomorrow’s newsletter.
If you want to make edits you’ll need to save it with a different name.
Members here at the Substack have their own updated spreadsheet linked after the paywall. Paid subscribers, even for one month, get access.
FOR SALE
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024, softcover, $20, Kindle, $10.
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024, PDF, $12.
Ron Shandler’s Fantasy Expert, hardcover, $25, Kindle, $12. I wrote the foreword.
Les Leopold’s Wall Street’s War on Workers, hardcover, $25, Kindle, $23. I did a lot of the data work and some editing.
HOUSEKEEPING
When Will I See You Again Dept.: Reader questions, so send them in, tomorrow.
I’ve posted the Historical Top Players by Position charts after the Paywall.
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