Outfield, Pt. 2
Plus Sam and Dave
ASK ROTOMAN
Hey,
Any advice on RP valuation in a Saves+Hold league. NL-only 11 teams. With the standard 9 pitchers should I just load up on starting pitchers in the auction and then pick up 3 or 4 reserve middle relief guys and hope 1 or 2 stick? Or is it worth paying for the elite setup guys?
“Hold On, I’m Coming”
Dear Hold,
Okay, I’m here!
I think the movement to add holds in fantasy baseball came about because of the all-or-nothing aspect of Saves. With one pitcher earning most of a team’s saves the price of closers went up and up. The potential for that one choice to break a team caused leagues to reason that you should be buying skills, not roles, when constructing a team. Adding holds as a component defanged closers.
In 2025, 32 pitchers had 10 or more saves. But 105 had 10 or more holds. That’s because while any single game can only have one save, it can have multiple holds. That’s a reason some leagues adopt Saves plus Half Holds as a category.
But in principle your definition and the Sv+H/2 similarly mean you don’t have to chase the top saves guys. In an only league, about 70 pitchers will have saves or holds value. In your 11-team league you’re only rostering 99 pitchers, so each team will have plenty of options.
My advice is to focus on strikeouts if you’re playing with 5x5 scoring. The top strikeout relievers can strike out more than some starters and also earn saves and holds. You’ll have to decide whether to go after the big dogs with big money, or budget more modestly. I think that’s a personal preference. Paying for a closer/setup guy who strikes out a lot of hitters, let’s say Mason Miller, gets you into the fight in that category, but comes at a price. But a lesser price than in a 5x5 league counting only saves.
The alternative is to buy cheap guys who have a shot at being top producers, and then work all season to add. I’ve long preferred to go this way, but in recent years I’ve had better success paying for one top guy and augmenting. And it makes sense. You get more value for your good pickups of cheap guys if your baseline is competitive. You then only need one to stay in the thick of things.
The cost, of course, is less money for hitting. Dang.
Alex Vesia
Another factor I just noticed looking at projected stats is that all of the FanGraphs projections systems cap their top holds guy at 18. For some it’s Alex Vesia, for others it’s Tyler Rogers, but 18 is all they get, while we know that the top holds producer is going to end up with close to 40.
In your NL league I think a good target would be Jeremiah Estrada. In an AL league take a look at Grant Taylor. Both should be cheap, though a little more pricey than you’ll see in the expert leagues that don’t count holds.
Just Keep Holding On,
Rotoman
OUTFIELDERS, PT. 2
The outfielders I have ranked above their NFBC ADP are not that much higher than the 75th pick (last outfielder in a 15 team mixed league).
Brandon Marsh, Phillies, Jonathan India, Royals, and Nick Castellanos, Padres, are the first batch. I have March and Castellanos, teammates last year, priced below their 2025 earnings and still they bubble up. I have India priced way above his 2025 earnings, which were terrible. He’s the one to consider. If his stock is that low I don’t have to budget so much for him.
Dylan Beavers, Orioles, Jesus Sanchez, Blue Jays, Zach McKinstry, Tigers, Jake Mangum, Pirates, and Lourdes Gurriel, Jr, Diamondbacks, are one tick up from the bottom of the NFBC ADP. If Mangum ends up a fourth outfielder in Pittsburgh I’ve got him too high. And while Gurriel seems confident he’ll be ready for the season’s start, but the Diamondbacks are in favor of giving him more time off and maybe less playing time when he’s back, which should knock his price down a lot. Those average drafters sure think so.
Two guys the NFBCers are drafting higher than I’ve got them are Willi Castro, Rockies, and Matt Wallner, Twins. I’m fine with their enthusiasm for Castro, but am concerned about Wallner’s contact skills, or lack thereof.
How about endgame plays for deep leagues?
Beavers and Victor Scott II are just off the chart, meaning they’re not going super cheap but cheap enough they could earn real profits. Beavers has a good eye and contact skills, hits with power and stole bases in the minors. I suspect that as the spring proceeds his price is going to go up. Scott has a decent eye and has stolen a lot of bases but he’s had a hole in his swing that undermined his contact. He announced this week that he’s retooled his swing using advanced imaging, so his problems should be a thing of the past. Maybe. I’m not a great believer in revamped swings, but they sometimes work out, and even if Scott’s doesn’t he should play because of his defense on a team that isn’t going anywhere, and he’ll steal bases.
Tyler O’Neill gets hurt a lot and last year it destroyed his production, but he’s topped 30 homers twice in the last five years, most recently in 2024. Why not take a shot if he costs $4?
Carson Benge, Mets, and Owen Caissie, Marlins, are rookies this year. Benge might not break camp with the Mets but after charging up through the minor leagues last year, if he gets off to a good start in Triple-A his power-speed combo with decent contact skills could get promoted quickly. Caissie saw a little time with the Cubs last year and after a trade to the Marlins looks to be their right fielder. He’s got contact issues but also a lot of power. I pooh-poohed Kyle Stowers last year for the same deficiency and the Marlins got a lot out of him. That’s not to say Caissie is a sure thing, but for cheap? A good bet.
He’s not a rookie, but CJ Kayfus, Guardians, is just past the qualifying number of plate appearances and held his own last year. He’s not a big power or speed guy but has a bit of both. He should get 400+ at bats on the strong side of a platoon.
The thing about outfielders is that there are so many of them! Let me know if you have some endgame targets that might surprise.
THE STATBOXES
In The Guide there are more than 1,300 statboxes, one for each player. I should have included this graphic, which we always ran on the What We Did page back in the magazine days.
The Line YR/C is what the player cost in each of the last five years on average in the expert leagues.
The Line YR/E is what the player earned each of those years in my pricing formula, which is designed to approximate what a player with those stats would have cost on draft day.
THE GIFT SHOP
Sales have been steady, but if you like the Guide a review on Amazon would help.
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide A-Z 2026, a softcover book, is available on Amazon. Price: $20
The Kindle version is good for the graphics version and on tablets and computers using the Kindle software! Price: $9.99
You can order your print and Kindle versions using this link.
If you’d prefer the PDF version, which you can download as soon as the payment goes through, click here. Price: $12
There is a non-Amazon softcover version that should be available at book stores, probably by special order. I’m getting some copies, I hope next week. If you’d like to order one let me know and I’ll send you a link to pay.
HOUSEKEEPING
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Next up: Starting Pitching, Pt. 2
Have a great hump day.
Sincerely,
