THE NEWS HURTS
The first big hit was Kyle Bradish, who has sprained his UCL, the ligament that often needs to be replaced via Tommy John surgery. Did I ever tell you about the time I met Tommy John? We were shooting “Let’s Play Baseball, with Ozzie Smith,” on a diamond in Fort Lauderdale when this fellow walking a dog stopped by, wondering who was filming in his park. Everybody recognized Tommy John right away. He and Ozzie were very friendly, and the producers tried to snag him for a cameo, but TJ begged off.
In any case, Bradish has had an injection of that curative platelet-rich plasma that sometimes works wonders, but he will not be ready for Opening Day. Here’s the thing about the UCL sprain. It doesn’t always lead to TJ, at least not immediately, but it surely increases the chances. Just like standing in a field in Fort Lauderdale with Ozzie Smith increases the chances of meeting Tommy John. So, we know that Bradish isn’t going to be 100 percent this year. He’ll miss time, so we revise him downward. And the chance that he will be a zero this year will increase by quite a bit because of the injury. So we revise him downward some more. I’ve dropped him to $10, for now, but as I imagine pulling the trigger at that level I think I may not have gone down far enough.
Justin Verlander and his shoulder are apparently okay after a scare, but that scare scares me. I’ve dropped Verlander a few more bucks, to $11, because the history of 41-year-old starters isn’t great.
There have been 97 such seasons and 16 resulted in 3 or more WAR. Get the whole list here.
The existence of those 16 seasons is why I’m willing to bet on Verlander, at least a bit, but add in the barking shoulder, and the red flags start to rise higher. No matter how good he says he feels.
I just noticed that only one of those 16 seasons came after 2008, and that was Bartolo Colon’s improbable 2016 season. What a game!
DH IS BACK!
It’s a solid group of DHs this year.
Having a DH-only in your UT slot isn’t ideal, because it limits how you can rotate other players in and out of your active roster as the season progresses. But I had Shoei Ohtani, the hitter, on my AL-only team last year, and I can testify that when you have a great DH you do not worry about it.
I saw reports that Ohtani is hitting these days and is on track to be in the lineup when the Dodgers make their early season start in Korea against the Padres. If Ohtani hadn’t had the elbow procedure last fall I would have him as a $37 hitter, and he might be underpriced at that, but he did and I’ve discounted him. At least for now. If he looks good early in camp I may have to adjust him back up. Certainly, the NFBC and mock drafters aren’t expecting him to fall back a little. But I’m going to wait a little and see.
Marcel Ozuna’s two years of bad decisions and consequences knocked his price down to nothing last year and he bounced back with a big year. Nothing about it looks lucky. He just smacked the ball hard in the air and a lot of them went yard. I picked him up in the endgame of the XFL draft (15-team mixed dynasty) and the NFBC and mockers are treating him like a low-teens pick. At those prices, he can clog my DH slot any day.
He’s a few years older than Ozuna, but JD Martinez, too, had a fine year last year. He’s stuck in free agent limbo right now, however, and you can figure a strikeout rate suddenly cresting above 30 percent has made teams reluctant to sign on for multiple years. Me, too. He can be helpful this year, but he has to be cheap enough.
Eloy Jimenez and Byron Buxton have great talent and great talent for getting hurt. I’m knocking them down, too. They could be great bargains if they can stay healthy, but it doesn’t seem they can stay healthy.
Harold Ramirez and Andrew McCutchen are old and can probably still hit (they did last year), but not so much that you should want them unless you’re in a pinch. But Jesse Winker’s fall has been precipitous and seems to be mostly psychological, so maybe he’ll figure out a way to get back on track. Worth looking at in an NL-only, there are opportunities in Washington this year.
SHOPPING
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024 Softcover ($19.99) The $9.99 Kindle version can be found on the same page. The softcover is currently No. 15 on the baseball books list at Amazon. The Kindle version is No. 9 in baseball statistics books.
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024 PDF ($12)
Ron Shandler’s Fantasy Expert is out next Tuesday. It’s a fun history of our game, from the beginning right up til about 2000. I wrote the Foreword. The publisher is offering a special deal up until the release date. 30 percent off! CLICK HERE on the Triumph Books website and enter the Promotion Code EXPERT30 in the shopping cart. This offer expires on February 20, 2024.
HOUSEKEEPING
After the signature, below, you’ll find behind the paywall links to the Position X Position lists, which are seeing small adjustments as I go through them.
You will also find a link to the Excel spreadsheet with projections, prices, position stuff, and prospect lists. If you don’t like Excel and would prefer a different format (Google Sheet? Excel Online, other) please let me know.
When I’m done with position reviews this week I’ll post the final updated Pos X Pos charts for subscribers, reflecting the changes.
When Will I See You Again Dept.: Monday, we tackle Starting Pitchers, and also take a look at how prices differ in OBP Leagues.
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