AWFUL NEWS
Photo: Minda Haas on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
Gavin Lux tore the ACL in his right knee running from second to third Tuesday and damaged the LCL as well. He’ll have surgery next week and is out for the season. The Dodgers added Miguel Rojas to play all-around backup in the offseason and he now becomes the more-or-less regular shortstop. Defensively he’s a plus, but his offensive profile is modest. Last year looks worse than most, but at least some of that was bad BABIP luck. His xBA was .264. more in line with expectations.
The intriguing part of Dave Roberts comments about the team’s changed plans is that he said that Mookie Betts might see some time at second base. Early statements like that are notoriously unreliable but file it away as another small reason to like Mookie this year.
ONE MORE AL PITCHER
The Orioles Tyler Wells is not in the rotation to start the season, but I wrote about his potential a while back: His season ended early with shoulder inflammation following 23 starts. He throws strikes and did a good job avoiding hard contact, though he threw a lot of fly balls and allowed a fair number of homers. He's not in the rotation to start the season but has the makings of talent that could surprise if he gets a chance. PICK
AND ANOTHER
I was reminded of Wells reading Eno Sarris’s story in The Athletic today about 10 longshot pitchers to look out for. Eno’s stuff is interesting because of this metric he’s had a hand in developing called Stuff+, but as you know from reading my attempts to identify these sorts of pitchers in recent days, for them to do better they all need to do better. Knowing which one can’t isn’t that hard, but knowing which one will is partly identifying good traits and partly getting lucky.
But one name pitcher jumped out because the story makes some small bit of sense. The Astro’s Bryan Abreu has never started a major league game, but he was a minor league starter in 2019. He could strike guys out, he still can, but back then he walked too many. Last year he was better and Peter Gammons reports, Eno quotes his tweet, that Abreu is in the Astros’ plans as a starter if the need arises. Intriguing, no?
CHEAP IMPACT HITTERS
For those of you who play in AL or NL-only leagues, the endgame is a real thing. The list of available hitters gets smaller and smaller, until there are mostly guys who have been sent down and backup catchers.
The paradoxical thing about these depleted ranks is that just randomly taking random names can land you a surprising gem. But bringing a little focus just might give you a bit of a leg up.
Here are some of the names that strike me as better than the usual endgame plays. Not sleepers exactly, but guys who might be more productive than most of the rest at the bottom of the barrel.
Edwin Rios, Cubs, 3B: He has a genuine left-handed power bat but has suffered from injuries in recent years. Now reportedly healthy and potentially a platoon mate with Patrick Wisdom, he could be a source of cheap power. He struck out nearly 40 percent of the time last year, and if that persists his time on the major league roster will be limited. That’s why he’ll be cheap. PICK
Austin Slater, Giants, OF: He’s been a consistently nearly-average performer in recent years while costing much less. That’s not exciting but it can be useful, especially when backing up an injury-prone regular. He was shut down on Wednesday with ulnar neuritis, which could be a short rest or it could be more drawn out. That should guarantee that he’s $1 or less in NL-only leagues, but could also mean that’s all he’ll be worth. MEH
Ezequiel Duran, Rangers, 2B: He saw 220 plate appearances with the big club last year but is slated for more Triple-A seasoning this year. He probably could use it, but if he’s called back up he brings a useful power and speed mix with workable contact skills. The Rangers have some heavy hitters in their infield and he’s not going to crack that, but he brings enough defensive flexibility to end up the top utility guy. PICK
Michael A. Taylor, Twins, OF: Right now he’s a platoon left-fielder on a team that always has playoff ambitions, but this is a team that wants to get Byron Buxton a full season of at-bats. Taylor’s centerfield defense is valuable to them, and his modestly productive bat and legs have fantasy value if he gets enough at-bats. He’s better against lefties, for sure, but he’s always a defensive plus. At endgame prices he’s a PICK.
Darick Hall, Phillies, OF: He’s probably the best of the motley group competing to DH for the NL Champs while Bryce Harper is on the rocks. Real power and one hopes he shows better pitch recognition and contact skills than he showed in his brief time with the team last year. He did in the minors, for the most part. He did not hit lefties at all last year but the team let him see only 12 plate appearances against them. PICK, at least until Harper returns or Jake Cave takes his at-bats.
Last year 152 hitters cost $5 or less for a total of $359 of our $6240 budget, of which about $4,243 is spent on hitters.
Of those 152 hitters, 72 (almost half) earned a profit. Eighty lost money.
The profitable ones made $533 profit.
The unprofitable ones lost -$413.
There are good hitters available for cheap. We just don’t always know which ones.
Here are the hitters who cost less than $5 who earned more than $10:
Earlier in the preseason I posted a similar chart and looked at whether these big profit guys were worth looking at this year. But today I wonder, Why were these guys so cheap? Maybe we can discover some principles for evaluation.
Taylor Ward, Angels, OF: An aging former first-rounder who had struggled against righties got a chance to play because of injury and then hit righties, especially his first six weeks.
Nico Hoerner, Cubs, SS: A young former first-rounder with a great glove had struggled to lift the ball more despite the Cubs efforts to get him to do so, but he did show signs of hitting the ball harder in limited play in 2021. Became more aggressive last year, sacrificed some walks but with his more aggressive approach he hit some homers and made plenty of contact. Call it skills development.
Thairo Estrada, Giants, SS: He developed, a little, but more than anything he ended up playing a lot more.
Elvis Andrus, White Sox, SS: Played more than expected and, after his trade to the White Sox, attacked the ball more and hit homers. Was it the ballpark change? He says he finally got healthy.
Jake McCarthy, Diamondbacks, OF: Had been judged as a tweener, not fast enough for centerfield, not enough power for left field, but once he got a chance to play he showed enough to eventually become a regular. Former second-round pick.
Harold Ramirez, Rays, 1B/OF: Unsupported BABIP bump earned him more for his batting average while playing the same mild offensive game. Such mildness makes one question how much playing time he’s going to get, hence the low price.
Jon Berti, Marlins, OF: More playing time.
Jorge Mateo, Orioles, SS: Defense earns him more playing time, and speed and power numbers add up. So do swings and misses.
Jurickson Profar, Padres, OF: Questions about playing time kept the price low, as did injuries in 2021. Tatis’s disastrous season made him a full-season regular. Now a free agent.
Jose Iglesias, Rockies, SS: He’s a perpetual placeholder who always does it, putting up punchless batting average numbers and earning okay value. Now a free agent.
William Contreras, Braves, C: Blocked by two vets because of his defensive deficiencies, they got hurt, the NL adopted the DH, and he was off.
Yonathan Daza, Rockies, OF: Another mild batting average hitter who got a chance to play more in center, because he doesn’t have enough power to play in left. His earnings are empty calories. Lots of speed but no steals, so far, another place to improve?
The theme seems to be real talent, former first-rounders, that blossoms can be had cheap. This is a little like post-hype without the hype. These guys, like Jake McCarthy and Taylor Ward, look like they’re fifth outfielders, maybe platoon guys, but then they hit that sweet spot where physical talents and mental acuity converge (the age 27 breakouts) and they surprise.
For the mild hitters, they could go their whole career without getting 250 at-bats in a season, but for some reason, in this year they got more, and they hit for enough average that they got some more, even though it was so mild!
Some names to look at this year who might fit one of these discriptions:
Jo Adell, Ezequiel Duran, Cristian Pache, Mickey Moniak, Jose Barrero, Vidal Brujan, Carter Kieboom, Willie Castro, Kyle Isbel, Trevor Larnach, Nate Eaton, Jake Meyers, Jarren Duran, Dominic Smith, Nick Solak, Bobby Dalbac.
Each one has a different story, but each is far enough away from high expectations to be counted as a surprise if it works out this year. If they get another chance.
THE SUBSCRIPTION MODEL
Heading into business mode, so beware.
In mid-January I comped all the pattonandco.com subscribers to the Substack through February 15th, though I didn’t actually cancel anyone until March 1.
In fact, only five of the 2022 subscribers didn’t re-up. I put those five on the Substack free list tonight. If they would like to renew they can either here or at pattonandco.com.
Whichever you do, let Alex or me know you’d like access to the other site.
If you paid and should have access to Pattonandco.com or rotoman.substack.com but you don’t, please let us know right away. We’ll fix it, quickly, and we’re sorry that we’re not tech integrators.
We’re also glad that we’re not tech integrators, but we hope we don’t cause you problems.
Sincerely,
A LETTER ABOUT POSITIONS
A reader wrote:
Hi Peter,
I’ve been looking at some stats regarding position eligibility and noticed a tiny nit but thought you might want to fix it. Will Smith (C, LAD) shows 109 games played at C, but your spreadsheet doesn’t show the 25 games he played at DH. I’m probably the only person in the world to notice, or care, but thought I’d send you a quick note.
Also, I notice many rookies without MLB experience have “900” listed on a position. I assume that is to indicate their primary position should they make the majors this season instead of the position that they might retain from last year, right? For example: Jordan Walker shows 900 games played at OF. If/when he makes the big leagues in 2023, he’ll probably play outfield but many providers still reflect his primary position as 3B.
"What’s Your Position?”
Dear What’s:
Thanks for picking this particular nit.
First off, Will Smith was a matching mistake. DH data came from a source that matched by name, if I remember correctly. There is another Will Smith who had no games at DH. Thanks for the heads up.
Minor League Games Played was an important feature in The Fantasy Baseball Guide from 2001 onward. That data was hard to get back then but I had a source. Alas, it was not cheap and with the published mag and publishers pocketball there was no way to acquire it this year.
So I started adding 900s for the players with bid prices so that they would show up in the Position ranking sorts. But I didn’t get that far.
And I didn’t deal with multi-position. Now I have, kind of.
I grabbed a list of top prospects and pulled out of it their primary positions. This is how Jordan Walker ended up as an outfielder.
I’ve added a grid to the right of the hitter projections showing each prospect’s primary position. It’s subject to the mistake of featuring the prospect’s expected position this year rather than the position he played most in 2022, which many leagues use to position their minor leaguers, but it is a little more information that I hope helps.
And as we go along for the next few weeks I’ll try to update and add 900s to the major league games played grid, and add ticks for minor leaguers who qualify at multiple positions.
Thanks for your patience and help.
PROGRAMMING NOTE
I’m off to a 90th birthday weekend celebration for my father-in-law, so reactions and updates will probably be a little slowed. But I’ll be checking the mail and comments and can take care of things between the martinis and ice cream
Have a great weekend!
COMING UP
Following the paywall is the link to Rotoman’s Sheet.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Rotoman's Guide to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.