HOW WAS YOUR WEEKEND?
I drove down to Pennsylvania to see my ma and ate some terrific Indian food in Glen Mills. A place called Mod India, well worth checking out if you’re in the area.
Now, back to baseball…
The Tout Wars Draft and Hold slow draft is underway. They’re in the 18th round. You can see who they’ve taken and follow the draft sheet here.
The Tout Wars 12 Team Mixed Draft starts tomorrow at about 12:15. It is being covered on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports, there is a live chat about it, and a live spreadsheet if you want to follow along. Details at toutwars.com.
YOU CALL THESE ROOKIES?
Major League Baseball considers players rookies if they don’t yet have a certain number of innings pitched (50) or at-bats (130), or 45 or more service days whatever the number of at-bats or innings pitched.
New players from Japan (and elsewhere) are rookies, even though they may also be grizzled veterans and have never played in the US minor leagues. The two big-name imports are:
Kodai Senga, Mets, SP: He’s pitched 11 years with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawk but has now signed with the Mets. In an earlier profile I mentioned he could hit 100 mph and had a pitch called the ghost forkball, which has to be scary. His fastball is more regularly in the mid-90s and is complemented by a variety of breaking balls he throws at a variety of speeds. The combination worked in the NPB and is obviously, as yet, untested in the MLB. He’s only passed 150 innings in Japan twice, in 2016 and 2019, so expect him to be coddled somewhat this year. The limited innings and the possibilty that he’s going to get hit on pitches in the zone or walk too many by staying out of the zone, makes me worry. He’s an accomplished pitcher who may well succeed, but I think he’s going to struggle. So unless he’s very cheap I’m giving up the ghost. PAN
This is a previously published profile of Yoshida. I don’t see a reason to adjust it:
Masataka Yoshida, Red Sox, OF: Terrific strike zone judgment in Japan (82 BB in 508 PA in 2022) led to great batting averages and enough power to push his SLG over .500. He's small, listed at 5'8, and stocky (176lb) and if he can translate those skills to major league baseball he should have a good run. But as we know, Japanese players with average power there don't bring as much power here, so we're looking at a guy with an excellent hit tool but not much power and less speed than Steven Kwan. He might be an okay producer of runs and RBIs with a good BA, a little valuable in AL-only leagues especially, but don't get too excited. PAN
OTHER ROOKIES
Drey Jameson, Diamondbacks, SP: In four starts with the big club last year he was hit hard but right where they were playing, so he posted an awesome ERA and a worrisome xERA. He struggled in Triple-A, but played in one of those hitters’ parks in a league of hitters’ parks that have undermined so many. That doesn’t necessarily translate to big league success and he’s locked in a battle for the final rotation spot with a bunch of other hurlers with talent, but his fastball/slider combo is impressive enough to pitch out of the bullpen as he learns his craft at the highest level. A cheap PICK.
Kyle Harrison, Giants, SP: As the Giants do, this past offseason they signed or renewed a bunch of veteran hurlers, which almost certainly means that Harrison will start the year in Triple-A (he pitched in High-A and Double-A last year). He’s posted huge strikeout numbers in the minors but also struggled a bit throwing strikes, so rapid advance isn’t guaranteed. But he should be on your radar and reserve list. PICK
Cody Morris, Guardians, SP: Was called up in September last year after missing much of the year with injury and saw his strikeout rate crumble and his walk rate soar. He was fortunate to not allow more runs but also missed enough bats to retain the promise of a talented hurler coming out of the Guardians pitcher development machine. He’s got lat issues now and is expected to start the season in Triple-A, but could get the call if he’s healthy and a hole opens ahead of him. PICK
Ken Waldichuk, Athletics, SP: Came to Oakland in the Frankie Montas deal and saw seven starts with the team in September. He struggled some with his command and paid for it with his fly ball tendency turning into untimely homers, but it was not in any way ugly. He’s expected to be in the rotation from the get-go, with the talent to get outs, but pitching for a pretty terrible re-tooling team that should struggle with wins. MEH
Cade Cavalli, Nationals, SP: Notable are his overly physical delivery and his brief tenure with the Nats last summer, which lasted just four innings before he was shut down with shoulder inflammation. Notable too are his four plus pitches and wobbly command, which is going to have to improve for him to reach his potential. He has a rotation slot but his workload will no doubt be softened whenever possible, still, he has the talent to dominate even if his team doesn’t have the talent to win much. PICK
DL Hall, Orioles, SP/RP: He came up last year and pitched decently, getting shelled only in his one start. Well, also in one relief appearance, but to close out the season he made eight appearances, pitched 8.67 innings, striking out 11 and walking two. Hall hopes to make the rotation, but will no doubt be happy enough in the bullpen for now. That makes him cheap and a PICK.
Curtis Mead, Rays, 3B: Excellent in Double-A last year, he was doing just fine in Triple-A when he was shut down with a sore elbow. He’s got solid power with solid contact skills and good strike-zone judgment but is backed up behind the perennially stocked Rays roster. The team does a good job of elevating talent, of course, so a quick start in Triple-A could see them finding a way to get this Australian import major league at-bats. At minor league prices. PICK
Royce Lewis, Twins, SS: The Twins added him to the 60-Day IL over the weekend, but he’s resumed baseball activities and is rehabbing his knee for the second time because of a torn ACL. When he returns he will be the team’s jack-of-all-trades, perhaps pushing aside Donovan Solano, sometime around midseason. Given his lengthy injury history it does not make sense to assume this will happen, or that he’ll have much value if it does (he’s a runner with a bad hopefully-fixed knee). PAN
ADP FOLLIES
I downloaded the last month’s ADP from the NFBC site. You can get them here. They are not a perfect proxy for rotisserie baseball because they generally reflect the doings in a 15-team league with deep benches playing not only to win one league but many of them in aggregate.
This means loading up with ace pitchers and bulking up in all categories as much as possible, no Sweeny plans here, but they are a useful proxy to see where one (in this case, me), is pushing guys too much or not enough. Or at least to consider that may be the case.
This time the No. 1 ADP goes to Ronald Acuna, pushing Trea Turner aside.
Photo: All-Pro Reels
Ronald Acuna, Braves, OF: He’s been great when healthy the past two years, but played with a sore knee last year and missed a lot of time in 2021. So, he has all the talent in the world with that super valuable five-category mix, but doesn’t hold a candle to Turner in terms of durability. Still just 24 and supposedly healthy, he’s a perfectly justifiable No. 1 but I think still a little riskier than Turner. PAN
JT Realmuto, Phillies, C: In 15-team leagues, and especially in the NFBC, the best catchers get a boost. To be competitive you cannot hope to offset the pain of $1 catchers, you need to have good catchers and good hitters otherwise to win in the large field. Realmuto is going 27th in the NFBC. In Fantrax drafts he’s going 44th. I have him ranked 33rd among hitters and 40th overall. When looking over this stuff you have to remember that there are nuances, consequences because there are rule differences. Realmuto, by the way, had a great year after a slow-ish first half that is only partly explained by BABIP good luck. I would call it a career year and expect more regression. Valuable but pricey. PAN
Oneil Cruz, Pirates, SS: His ADP says he’s being taken slightly ahead of Tommy Edman, who has earned $29 and $31 in the last two years. Cruz has big potential, to be sure, but he struck out nearly 35 percent of his plate appearances last year. He hit .233, his xBA was .223, and his contact rate suggests his average should be in the .220-.230 range. He could get better and still struggle hitting for average, which undermines his fantasy value. In the low $20s he’s a PICK, his power/speed combo is real, but elevate him to the high $20s and he’s a PAN.
Nathaniel Lowe, Rangers, 1B: He’s being drafted as if he’s a $20 player. I have a price of $24 on him. Am I out of step or are the masses dumb? He earned $34 last year, which is enough more than $24 to suggest the masses are wrong. But he hit .302 last year while Statcast says his xBA was .275. I have him projected to hit .288, which may be too high, and if he hits 24 homers again he’ll earn $24. So I’m comfortable with my price and will be happy to stop bidding at their price. He might see a little more drop in BA, but with an uptick in fly balls he might also see some more balls leave the yard. PICK
CJ Cron, Rockies, 1B: He earned $21 and $22 the last two years, and cost $21 last year, which leads to a dilemma. If you buy him at $21, the price I have for him, there is no apparent upside. He’s 33 years old, a power hitter without a speed element to his game. At $21 you’re kind of hoping he hits his ceiling again. But can you get him for less? His ADP suggests a price of about $19, which makes him MEH for me. Glad to grab him if I have to, but not excited about it at all. MEH
We’ll have more ADP Follies tomorrow.
ASK ROTOMAN
Hey Rotoman:
I know I will need some $1 potentially flotsam starters for my 12-Team NL-only to make my budget work and that means I might have to shop in the Washington, Arizona, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati windows, as well as the better staffs. Excluding, off the top of my head, Zac Gallen, Hunter Greene and, Nick Lodolo, who are the guys you would choose?
BTW: I know that my league will spend at least $3 to $5 and perhaps more on Merrill Kelly, German Marquez, Roansy Contreras, and Josiah Gray. Truth be told the Marquez buyer has often been me in the past.
“Ger-manic”
Dear Ger:
While I have the Sheet sorted by ADP, let’s take a look at the pitchers the NFBC is drafting late or later that I’m at least a little high on:
Trevor Williams, Nationals, SP, is in the rotation. He wouldn’t have hurt you last year, which is a plus after two bleak years. But before that he was actually helpful, despite not striking many out.
Adrian Morejon, Padres, SP, might start the year in the minors, but he’s a young talent who doesn’t need much more seasoning to contribute, maybe in the rotation.
Bryce Elder, Braves, SP, is an actual prospect, sort of, who did reasonably well in nine starts last year in the majors. He mixes a variety of pitches relying most heavily on a sinker/slider combo, throws lots of grounders, and not much hard contact. Even if he had a job he’d be cheap and with a shot at a Trevor Williams-like season.
Sixto Sanchez, Marlins, SP, was an actual top prospect whose career collapsed after two shoulder surgeries. He’s throwing freely now and as of a few weeks ago was close to touching 90 mph. He’ll start the year in the minors, maybe on the IL, maybe in a rotation rebuilding arm strength. He’s an interesting stash candidate, though when he finally gets back to the majors he might be a reliever instead of a starter.
Bobby Miller, Dodgers, SP, is the best of the next round of Dodger-developed starters, but will start the year in the minors. And, he may not get the first shot to fill in when someone goes down because he isn’t on the roster yet. But that means a lot of talent for cheap if he does come up.
Anthony DeSclafani, Giants, SP, missed nearly all of last year with a damaged ankle tendon that was repaired by surgery. He’s been cleared to play and not far removed from a fine 2021 and a little further removed from a fine 2019 season. He even had an off 2018 and decent 2017, so unless you’re at odds with taking advantage of clear patterns, this is probably his year. Again. More seriously, he’s in a crowded situation but with a lot of unreliable and aging vets, so he should get a shot. PICK
Johnny Cueto, Marlins, SP, isn’t striking them out like he used to, but he’s been getting them out. He’s old enough now that at any point the arms and legs may not be able to do what head wants them to, but he was a positive earner last year for 158 innings, which is something. PICK
Ian Anderson, Braves, SP, has added a changeup, which might be the extra look he needed to become effective again. Actually, after that brief and excellent run in 2020 he’s been somewhat consistent, though his ERA looked better than it was in 2021 and worse than it was in 2022. Apparently he isn’t the ace he at first looked like, but still has potential, especially if the new pitch works. PICK
Other names to check out in these nether regions of the pitcher list are rookies Ryne Nelson and Brandon Pfaadt, Braves starter Mike Soroka (if he stays healthy and doesn’t displace Ian Anderson), MacKenzie Gore (there is always hope), and Adam Wainwright (though he can’t pitch forever), though these guys may start pushing up your $1 budgets.
And, of course, high skills relievers are always good replacements when your rag arms go south.
Hope this helps!
Sincerely,
CLOSING TIME
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