A CHALLENGE
Pedro,
How on earth does Jake Rogers (DET) not make it onto your top 24 catchers list?
21 HR/49 RBI/1 SB/.221 BA in 365 PA in 2023.
Instead, you have Fermin, the No. 2 backstop for KC, at #21.
You’re losing credibility fast.
Pancho
Hola!
I read your note with horror. Did I screw up so badly? Nah.
First off, in yesterday’s story, I talked about probably overrating Fermin, who will be a better hitter than Rogers but does have a tough time getting to more than 225 at-bats. But I like talent, so I would rather have a talented 225 at-bats than Rogers’s 375 ab - 20 homers = 355 bad at-bats.
Rogers swings and misses a lot. He strikes out in more than a third of his plate appearances. I wondered how bad that was for a catcher. So I searched:
Catchers since 1981 (the Rotisserie era) who had 500 to 1100 at-bats in the first five seasons they played.
148 catchers fit the bill. I sorted them by strikeout rate. Here’s your Top 15:
Yup.
Now, just being on this list isn’t a crime. Four of these catchers (Shoppach, Jeffers, Haase, and Raleigh) have a positive OPS+ while striking out a lot, but Rogers’ OPS+ is 86. That’s better than Tyler Flowers and Chance Sisco, but trails Shea Langeliers.
Rogers does have power. He has a higher homer rate than all on this list except Raleigh. But did I really screw up?
I have Rogers ranked 28th. The NFBC players are taking Rogers 25th, ahead of Fermin, Yan Gomes, and Patrick Bailey. Hmmm, Rogers is not in the Top 24 for the NFBC, too.
So, while I think it’s mostly without merit, Pancho, thanks for your challenge. It’s by looking more closely at players and these lists that we get a better feel for the player pool, and what tradeoffs we make in our pursuit of homers. With Rogers, they’re very real.
Ps. One side-effect of using these mixed league lists is that it distorts our instinctual reaction to the player pool. I hear 24th and I think that’s the last catcher taken. In fact, on my list, Rogers is the 15th-ranked catcher in the American League. The NFBC ranks him 13th. There are a lot worse catchers behind him.
FIRST BASE: FREEMAN AND THE REST
It’s true, Freddie Freeman is a tier unto himself.
The next tier ranges from Matt Olson to Pete Alonso, with Bryce Harper and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the middle. All very good.
Here’s the rest of my Top 24:
It’s pretty straightforward until you get to the guys I have prices from $21 down to $16.
Why is the NFBC so down on Alec Bohm? And why am I so high?
I don’t know about the NFBC. Last year Bohm had more extra-base hits, walked more, and struck out less than he did in 2022. He earned $22 according to me, and $24 the year before, while Alex Patton has him at $21 for both years. How can you not pay $21 for him this year? Or, if you’re playing in the NFBC, how can you not be all over him in the 10th round?
I have Bohm a click ahead of Christian Walker, and you might disagree with that. Walker makes more outs than Bohm, but he’s also turned into a pretty solid power hitter. I have Walker earning $22 and $25 the last two years, not unlike Bohm, but he’s five years older. While Bohm’s best years could be ahead of him, Walker’s are most likely behind him.
If you agree with me, you’ll let someone grab Walker early knowing you can get Bohm four or five rounds later, in a draft.
The other divergent pair on this board are Ryan Mountcastle and Triston Casas. The NFBC has Mountcastle going 120 picks later than Casas.
Mountcastle is coming off a down year interrupted by disease, which caused vertigo. He hit the ball less hard and didn’t lift it as much, both bad approaches for a power hitter. But once he was back he hit the ball more, at least until shoulder soreness ended his season. Expect the power to rebound, and Mountcastle looks like a nice bargain, especially at the price the NFBC is paying.
Casas started 2023 slowly, but hit better and more powerfully as the season went along, but it too ended early with a shoulder injury. In the Guide I say that Casas sat more and more as the season went along against lefties, against whom he hit just .215, while he hit .274 against righties, which is true. Casas struck out 32 percent of the time against lefties, and only 23.3 percent against righties, but he also walked way more against lefties and hit for as much power as he did against righties. So he missed starts, but was that the right thing for Alex Cora to do?
The problem is conpounded, because Casas was not a good first baseman. Alas, the team is using Masataka Yoshida as DH, because he’s not so hot defensively either, which blocks Casas there. In the end, Yoshida and Casas have to play most of the time, and if Casas hits lefties with power when he hits, those strikeouts won’t matter. Still, all this conflict has to count for a strike against him, and a reason not to bet the house on Casas.
Vinnie Pasquantino was a darling last year, but he didn’t sting the ball early in the season and got hurt in June, and he has been all but forgotten. At least to some. He should bounce back this year and could produce 25 homers with a .280 batting average. Here’s his box from The Guide:
I’m not quite as optimistic there as I was here.
The NFBC crowd is higher on Christian Encarnacion-Strand than I am. They’re looking at a powerhitter who made enough contact last season to impress, but I’m less so. That’s is because there is a logjam in the Reds roster, and given CES’s struggles in his 50 or so plate appearances against lefties (a .685 OPS), and the presence of Jonathan India and Matt McLain and Elly De La Cruz and Noelvi Marte and the Red’s signing of Jeimer Candelario, it’s possible the at-bats won’t be there this year for him. Plus, he’s got great power but strikes out a fair amount and doesn’t walk much, which makes him vulnerable, too. Pitchers might figure him out.
I’m not saying avoid him, but I’m saying curb your enthusiasm.
More first base talk to come over the weekend.
PLUGS
The softcover version of Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024 is out and available on Amazon. This afternoon we ranked 9th in sales, something of a best seller! Click here to buy. It’s $19.99. Pricey, but full of nuggets.
There is now a Kindle version of Rotoman’s Guide 2024. It’s all the same info and only $9.99. Click here to buy.
And the PDF is still out there. It’s $12. Click here to buy.
And I’ll be appearing today at 5 pm ET at PitchCon’s annual baseball bonanza, talking with Brian Entrekin and Dalton Del Don about the tools I use to do quick player evaluations. You can watch the embedded player here. There are presentations all day and night and weekend! (BTW, the link I shared on Wednesday was not the right one. Use this one.)
HOUSEKEEPING
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Thanks all, have a great weekend!
Sincerely,
THE REST OF THE CATCHER RANKS
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