It's Freezing in Here, Mister

And assume we discover some missing links

Feb 18, 2025

∙ Paid

CAMPS OPEN

Players sign at the last minute with their teams of last resort, it seems.

Kenley Jansen, signed by the Angels: Ben Joyce didn’t appear to be ready to close and the Angels agreed. Jansen becomes the team’s closer. Given his age and wear and tear you must be concerned about his durability, though even with the time he’s missed he’s been okay in recent years. $12. Joyce goes to $S.

Yoan Moncada, signed by the Angels: After sending Anthony Rendon to the 60-day IL with a hip impingement, the Halos signed another injury-prone third sacker. Why not? At this point Moncada is a more productive hitter than Rendon, assuming both are healthy enough to play. $5

Ty France, signed by the Twins: The Twins are challenged by having two massive bats in their lineup who miss a lot of time, Buxton and Lewis, but it’s still hard to understand why you would sign France when you already have Jose Miranda. The two are similar hitters, aggressive contact hitters with very modest power for corner infielders. Rocco Baldelli says France will be the everyday first baseman, though Miranda makes more contact and is probably the better fielder. If we assume Royce Lewis is going to stay healthy, if a frog had wings he wouldn’t bump his ass as much, neither of these guys should see full-time at bats. Let’s say $5. I’m keeping Miranda at $7. He should have a solid batting average even if he doesn’t get as many at bats.

Jakob Junis, signed by the Guardians: He was a solid earner last year in long relief for the Brewers and Reds, despite his strikeout rate falling off a cliff and his velocity dipping two ticks. He does not give in, issues about as few walks as a pitcher can. He ranked third in BB/9 among pitchers with 60 innings or more in 2024. The tradeoff is a paucity of strikeouts. He’s not someone to target for your roster, but if you’re looking for a fill-in at some point he could have sneaky value if Cleveland uses him in the right situations (and hits when they do). $2

Nick Pivetta, signed by the Padres: He bet on himself, didn’t take the qualifying offer, and then languished in the free agent pool until the last minute. Instead of $21.05M for one year, he’s signed for $55M for four years with opt outs after the second and third years. In either case it’s a lot of money. Pivetta’s big problem is allowing the long ball and Petco Park is a little more homer friendly than Fenway, but it is otherwise a much more stingy offensive environment. Pivetta’s strong strikeout rate is undermined by a lack of innings so far in his career, but if he’s able pitch a little more and is hurt a little less by the big flies he’s going to allow, he could be one of the year’s surprising breakouts. $8

MISSING

Hi Peter,

In taking a first look at the master spreadsheet I noticed $0 PK5 values for the following NL Pitchers with significant $P values: Calvin Faucher ($15), Brandon Woodruff ($12), Tyler Kinley ($11), Dustin May ($9), Jose Ferrer ($8), and Aaron Bummer ($7). I could see 5x5 values being lower for the closers, but not zero. For Woodruff and May, there's injury/innings risk, but again they should have 5x5 values exceeding zero. Am I misunderstanding the meaning of PK5 or is there a need for some revisions?

“Revision Decisions?”

Dear RD:

Thank you for beating me to the gun. Part of my process as the spring proceeds is to compare the P5 value, which is the calculated value of the projection using Patton’s formula, with my bid prices. Discrepancies can mean that the Bid Price is wrong, the projection is wrong, or there is a reason that the two don’t match up, usually involving risk.

The basic fact to keep in mind is that in standard AL and NL-only leagues, only 216 pitchers are drafted. So, in a perfect world, and certainly on your draft/auction day, you should have a list of 108 pitchers you expect to be taken, plus a bunch of others for your reserve rounds.

In my lists I try to have about 205 or so pitchers with a price of $2 or above, and then a bunch of others labeled $1. Those are the ones that deserve considering for your last pitcher slot or your reserve list. All of the guys you name above should have a PK5 price. Let’s give them a quick scout to see where they should land:

Calvin Faucher, Miami: I didn’t connect Faucher the guy who allows too many baserunners with Faucher the closer. He’s at $7 now. I don’t believe in him and don’t see why he’s better than everyone else in that bullpen, but he’s got the job now.

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee: He could be back in May after October 2023 shoulder surgery. I ran a projection for him that assumed his health, but overlooked him because he missed all of last year. I’ve tamped back his projection some, and given him a bid price of $5. At a cheap price he’s worth the risk of a relapse or a new injury suffered during rehab while building up his strength.

Tyler Kinley, Colorado: Like Faucher, he’s a closer, but if he wasn’t he wouldn’t have a price. I priced him at $6 and added Seth Halvorson for $1, since he seems just as qualified, which is just barely.

Dustin May, Dodgers: My projection was wildly out of scale. I trimmed him to 80 innings pitched, reflecting his role as swingman behind a large but oft-injured coterie of Dodger starters. May is oft-injured himself, but is worth a $2 bid for his hair and his heater.

Jose Ferrer, Nationals: He saved a game last September and is considered part of a committee in DC. I lean toward Jorge Lopez ending up seeing most of the saves, but Ferrer is worth picking up because of the possibility he’ll also get some. $2.

Aaron Bummer, Atlanta: He’s a solid setup guy, the kind that can earn real scratch if he lucks into some wins and a few saves, and he strikes out enough hitters to play when you don’t have better. $1

To be fair, some AL pitchers landed in similar baskets in this first release:

Beau Brieske, Tigers: He’s in a possible committee with last year’s Tiger closer Jason Foley and setup guy extraordinare, Tyler Holton. $3

Prelander Berroa, White Sox: Control issues are huge here, but he could end up saving games for the woeful Pale Hose. $3

Gregory Santos, Seattle: A solid bullpen arm can have value. $1

Robert Stephenson, Angels: Same here. $1

Matt Brash, Seattle: Can’t say it often enough. $1

Chris Paddack, Twins: Control pitcher with enough bat missing to matter, if he ever stays healthy. A perfect AL-only endgame starter, if he makes it through spring training. $2.

NOTE FOR MIXED LEAGUES: For the so-called closers listed above, their prices might not end up with the ranking in a mixed sort, but if they’re supposed to be a closer when you draft they are worth considering late in the draft because of their roles.

ASK ROTOMAN: Real World Perfect Pitching

Peter,

I liked your article about the perfect staff.

Made me think about the league I am best positioned to win in 2025. Spent the year rebuilding and my offense is stacked (Cruz@$15, Merril @ $5, Crews @5, McClain @$15, Abrams@$15, Vientos@$1, Alvarez@$5, Shaw@$5, Mitchell@$5).

For my pitching I have Cease @$10, Alcantara@$10, Manaea @$3 and Woodruff@$5.

Based on your article, I should buy a solid closer and then make a few $2-$3 bets. I could keep Puk @$10 and/or Adam @$4. Both of them may be worth 2-20 saves depending on circumstances.

I will have $130 to spend on 9-10 spots. I had planned on buying one of Soto, Tucker or Acuna, a solid 1B, a good closer and another good pitcher. Perhaps, I would be better off skipping the other “good pitcher” and throw the darts. That would free me up to upgrade my solid 1B to one of Naylor, Olson or Freeman.

What do you think?

“Mr. Freeze”

Dear Mr. Freeze:

The Perfect Pitching Staff is a couple of things.

One, it’s a high-variance approach to gaining an edge when all other variables are roughly equal. In a redraft league, for instance, or when you must catch up to teams that have better freeze lists than you do. If your offense is as good as you think it is, Mr. Freeze, your goal is to augment it while building the best pitching staff you can. I would say your original plan, to buy “another good pitcher,” is probably the better play, though there are a few ways to go with that.

You can spend about $20 or so uninflated bucks for a second tier ace. Or you can go a little cheaper and get a third-tier mid-teens starter and save some money for your hitters. Either will work out if they work out, but the cost is high if they bomb. That happens more with the third-tier types. Or you could buy two or three $5-$9 projects, guys who may be breakout candidates or coming back from injuries. The goal is to as safely as possible increase your chance of getting a solid 150 or so innings to augment your good freezes.

Two, it’s a way to think about your endgame play. Assuming you buy Soto, Raisel Iglesias, Freddie Freeman, and Hunter Brown, you could end up with a $3 or $5 for three players. Do you take safe relief pitchers who don’t have a line on saves, probably, or do you throw the dice for starters who have a long way to go to prove they have value?

No matter your place in a rebuild, trying to pick off the laggards left in the end game who strike out the most hitters gives you a shot at upside. These might include some of the out-of-favor Miami starters, or a middlin’ prospect like Nationals’ Mitchell Parker. The goal is to be fearless, knowing your investment is small and you’ll churn these guys if they don’t work out.

As for AJ Puk at $10 and Jason Adam at $4, the difference is that Adam should earn more than $4 no matter what happens. With upside if (when?) Robert Suarez gets hurt. Puk will earn $10 if he shares the closing job in Arizona with Justin Martinez, and more if he takes the job away, but he might not end up getting there if Martinez gets most of the saves. For me, that makes him a much less attractive freeze.

Glacially,
Rotoman

PLUGS

I’m on this week’s BaseballHQ Radio show with Patrick Davitt, which came out today. We talked about Tout Wars, strategy, valuations, and the Perfect Pitching Staff idea, plus as always Boons and Banes. It’s always great fun chatting with Patrick, who was a Picks and Pan contributor to the Guide this year.

Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide A-Z 2025 is out, as you may have heard, and has nearly 300 Picks and Pans. You can buy it now!

Buy the softcover book from IngramSpark by clicking here. It’s $19.99. I’d hoped you’d be able to order it through your local bookstore, but a reader who tried was told no, and ended up ordering it online by clicking the link, glad to bypass the Amazon monster. Let me know if you find a bookseller who can order it.

Buy the softcover book ($20) or Kindle book ($10) from Amazon by clicking here.

The Kindle version is also available for free for Kindle Unlimited subscribers. Download it to your tablet or computer with Kindle software, it doesn’t work on the smaller readers because of the formatting, and you can scroll through as often as you like for no cost.

Buy the PDF file by clicking here. It is $12 and available immediately via a link on the confirmation page.

HOUSEKEEPING

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