I Second That Emotion

Digging the Keystone

DIGGING THE NEWS, TOO

First this bit of greatness:

Okay, speculation in this newsletter’s Sunday special that Justin Turner might be on the way out was crushed by his signing today with the Blue Jays. Turner rejected his $13.4M option with the Red Sox to sign for $13M plus another $1.5M in possible bonuses to sign with Toronto, so I was almost right that there wouldn’t be more money out there for him. But clearly, he wants to play, and the Blue Jays needed a lefty bat. I still think you have to be skeptical of a 39 year old (using the July 1 cutoff, not the more sensible Current Year minus Year of Birth age), but it is certainly possible he has another year in him.

Turner has had 1.5, 3.5, 2.0, and 2.1 WAR in the last four years. Since 1981 there have been 37 seasons with a first or third baseman or DH player 39 or older (using the July 1 cutoff) having 2.0 WAR or better. There has been only 264 seasons total of 39 year olds or older playing. Barry Bonds had 10.6 WAR in 2004. David Ortiz (5.2), Darrell Evans (4.9), Carlton Fisk (4.9), and Dave Winfield (4.1) round out the top five. Click here for the full list at Baseball Reference.

The Twins traded Jorge Polanco to Seattle in exchange for Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa, plus an outfield prospect, Gabriel Gonzalez. Plus a minor-league pitcher and cash. DeSclafani gives the Twins an arm, though he’s just so hittable that he doesn’t seem to solve anything but the need for innings. Maybe. His season last year ended in late-July with a strained flexor tendon and he’s still not cleared to pitch.

Topa was a 31-year-old rookie last year, after a series of TJs, and was excellent working as a setup guy. I wouldn’t blame you for rostering him in the endgame, especially if you play in a holds league, but there are reasons to doubt he’ll be as effective this year even if he stays healthy.

Gonzalez is a 20-year-old outfielder from Venezuela with a power bat and raw skills who split last year between Single-A and High-A. He’s at least two years away, if he makes progress.

The Angels signed Aaron Hicks, who came alive in Baltimore last year after terrible struggles in New York the last three years. Despite that resurgence, I have Hicks as an endgame outfielder. He’s had 500+ PAs once in his long career.

SECOND BASE SURVEY

Here’s the top-27 second baseman, in my opinion.

Bryson Stott and Spencer Steer had breakout years last year. Steer was a 26-year-old rookie and earned $24. It would be unreasonable to expect him to do better this year, but if he’s healthy there isn’t much reason to expect much worse. At 104 he’s a good buy.

Stott earned $26 last year and is only 24 years old. There’s some reason to think his batting average was a bit inflated in 2023, a little, but there’s also reason to think he might walk more. If he gets on base he’s proven he can steal bases, so giving him a big trim doesn’t seem right.

It occurs to me that some translation between the Roto$ price and the draft pick might be helpful. What pick in a 24-team mixed draft would correspond to a $24 bid, like the one I put on Stott?

I took last year’s auction prices and ranked them from most expensive to least expensive, then applied picks from 1 to 600 to them. One way of answering the Stott question is that $24 players were taken in about the fifth round using picks 59 through 68. While NFBCers are taking Stott with the 105th pick, which is where you would usually find a $20 player.

A $21 player like Steer would go among picks 83 to 94, while the 104th player would be a $20 player. You can see the whole list by clicking here.

By this measure Nolan Gorman, who I have as a $19 player is going in the NFBC as a $13 player. And Ha-Seong Kim, who I also have as a $19 player is going in the NFBC as a $22 player.

Gorman earned $14 last year as a 23-year-old. He has a ton of power but does strike out a lot, but he also walks a fair amount, which I think means more homers are coming. The NFBC says, expect more of the same. I’d be happy to take Gorman at their price.

Kim earned $24 last year, which to me looks like a career year, but may just be him getting used to the States. He’s got top-quartile Sprint Speed and an 80 percent success rate, so the steals should keep coming, and he’s got good pull power so maybe the homers do, too. Still, he’s not a power-hitter. I’m not going all in.

Here’s what I wrote about Luis Arraez last year:

The toughest call is Luis Arraez. He earned $14, $6, $15 the three years before earning $31 last year. He doesn’t homer much or steal many bases, so much of that value came from his .316 batting average. The inclination is to regress his batting average to his mean, but that’s .314! Just two points below his batting title season mark. At $14 you can’t really get hurt, which CBS ($13) and LABR ($15) agree with, but you’re going to have to find your bulk homers and steals elsewhere.

This year I grudgingly move him up to $17, even after he had a $35 season, because the same things are true (except his mean batting average is now .326). He went for $15 last year, pretty much as I predicted, and I don’t think he will go up much past that this year. Maybe he’ll pull a Boggs, focus on homers, and surprise, but the fact is he’s below average in four categories and spectacular in one. That’s very hard to build around. The NFBC is drafting him like a $15 player again. I think we pretty much agree.

A sidenote: One limitation we talked about recently had to do with the fact that Steals and Saves should be discounted because demand for them is unequal from team to team in a league. What I mean is, once enough teams have Steals or Saves, the teams that don’t have them are inclined to dump the category.

Another value limitation on players has to do with their extreme results. Usually these have to do with Steals and Saves, but Arraez is an example of a guy whose batting average might be a big help if your team is otherwise in ninth place in BA, but let’s say you have a couple of guys who get hot and your team would otherwise be fourth in BA without Arraez? Add Arraez and his many hits and you will max out, finishing far ahead of the second place team in BA, so you won’t get the full benefit of his hits. Couple that with the fact that he could get unlucky and only hit .296, as he did in 2021, and paying retail for him looks like a big mistake (unless he does decide to go 1987 Boggs for you).

Tommy Edman and Jonathan India either get too much love from me or not enough from our NFBC counterparts.

Edman was hurt last year and lost a month’s worth of playing time. He should be dinged this year for runs, because he’s probably going to hit down in the order more, but there’s no reason the steals and a couple handfuls of homers don’t follow. The NFBC has him as a $15 player. That’s a good deal.

Those high-stakes players have Jonathan India as an $11 player. The last two years, when he’s been hurt and missed time, he’s earned $9 and $14, which makes $11 sound reasonable. But in 2021, when he wasn’t hurt, he earned $24. Health is a skill and all that, but that’s a big ding for a proven power-speed guy. His situation in Cincinnati is dicey, with a lot of hot young talents pushing for all the jobs that Jeimer Candelario won’t be doing, which is a second reason not to push too hard. I’m taking him down a tick, but I’m happy taking a shot with a talented post-hype second baseman at a good price.

Finally, for today, let’s take a look at Jordan Westburg. I have him at $12, while the NFBCers are taking him 331st, which has a value of $6. There are some issues with playing time in Baltimore, meaning that Westburg could be the second baseman, but if Jackson Holliday starts the year in Triple-A Westburg could be the third baseman (with Gunnar Henderson moving back to shortstop), but then again Joey Ortiz could be in the mix, as could Connor Norby and/or Coby Mayo.

So, at this point it makes a little sense not to jump all in on Westburg. I’m dropping his bid price a few bucks, because Ortiz is a better fielder and Norby hit 21 homers last year in Triple-A. But when all is said and done, odds are best that Westburg will be playing regularly this year at either second or third, but on a short leash.

HOUSEKEEPING

After the signature, below, you’ll find behind the paywall links to the Position X Position lists, which are seeing small adjustments as I go through them.

Tomorrow we’ll look at the rest of the second basemen.

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