Going Once, Going Twice

SOLD! Er, SHALD?

Mar 24, 2026

∙ Paid

ASK ROTOMAN

Hi:

Had my draft and ended up punting saves because I did not budget $30 for a top closer. It’s a 10 team AL-only league with Saves + 0.5 Holds as a category. My rotation is now Jacob deGrom, Cole Ragans, Cam Schlittler, MacKenzie Gore, Ryan Pepiot, Ryan Weathers, Joey Cantillo, and Zebby Matthews. My relievers are Grant Taylor, Camilo Doval, Hogan Harris, and Kyle Finnegan. Guys left who either have a shot at saves or will accumulate Holds include: Justin Slaten, Keegan Akin, Shawn Armstrong, Erik Sabrowski, Drew Pomeranz, and Cole Winn. Who do you think I should drop to pick up some of those possible Saves/H.

“Savings Account”

Dear SA:

One of the goods that comes with messing with the categories and rules is that your league’s game play will be a little different than in the expert leagues and in the writings of so-called experts. Like mine.

I thought your question might be a good hook to hang a bit of a discussion about the various ways Holds are being mixed with Saves in leagues and what that does to values.

I don’t project Holds because the category is the domain of the 7th and 8th inning relievers. These guys turn over a lot because they warm up and pitch a lot and then break down or become ineffective, and if they don’t the guy ahead of them does and so they become closers instead of Holds guys.

When projecting Saves I mostly give the best guys who seem the safest 30-35 saves and the less dominant ones who have jobs in the 20-30 range. After that it’s a bit of muddy and if you check the numbers there’s not a full allocation of Saves for most teams, or sometimes too many for a team. That’s because trying to get it right is a precision that makes the overall forecasts worse, and relievers not only earn for getting saves and holds, they earn when they get strikeouts and have a low WHIP.

In recent years, Tyler Holton was the poster boy for this profile. And he didn’t strike out that many. But he was so effective and walked so few in 2023 and 2024 that he earned $20+ in AL only roto leagues with only two saves each year. Last year he saved five games, put up similar strikeout and walk rates, but allowed a lot more (and a probably unlucky amount of) homers and his value plunged. That’s in a league that only counts saves.

Poster boy, Tyler Holton.

But the point is a relief pitcher can be more than his saves and holds totals, which should remind us to covet the top closers a little less, especially if we’re diluting the category with half-holds or full-holds. Which is why I’m surprised closers were going for $30+ in your league (though if you’re playing 4x4 that’s probably right).

So, I put together a chart ranking the relief pitchers, using Ariel Cohen’s ATC projections, by Saves, by SOLDS (Saves+Holds), and by SHALDS (Saves+(Holds/2)).

I then created a value scale of $300 to be distributed according to the value in each category for the top relievers, based on their marginal value (that’s their total minus the value of the 65th reliever). This is how roto pricing works, though it isn’t necessary on the same scale.

Here are the results for the top 55 or so:

In the Saves category Edwin Diaz is worth $10 and the 65th reliever is worth $1.

In the Shalds category Diaz is worth $6 and 65th reliever is worth $1.

In the Solds category Diaz is worth just $3 and the 65th reliever is worth $1.

Diaz has other virtues. He strikes out a lot of hitters, usually doesn’t walk many, usually doesn’t allow too many homers. He’s been in the Top 10 in Saves in every year of his career but one. But if you change the rules to value Holds, the lesson is, his value goes down.

There’s a Google sheet for subscribers linked after the Paywall with the values for all the pitchers projected for one hold or one save or more, plus their projected ERAs and walks and strikeouts, if you’d like to prospect.

I used it to rank your guys:

The lesson here isn’t that these guys have no value, though theyhave no value, but rather that there are a lot of guys like this. So, based on the projections none of them have extra value, which is why some are available after your draft. I like Taylor, Doval, and Finnegan of this group the most, but cases can be made for all of them. The fun and frustrating part is that you can drop and pickup guys in these roles all season long. They’re out there.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

NEWS?

There’s lots happening in the majors and the spring training camps, but it seems like not very much dramatic. Let’s take a look:

A Younger Buehler. Photo: By Jon Bleiweis on Flickr (Original version) CC BY-SA 2.0

Walker Buehler, makes the Padres: He’s made the team and presumably the rotation and then was crushed yesterday by the Diamondbacks. He’s struggled with injuries and post-injury issues since his great season in 2021 and if he’s healthy you have to give him a shot. That doesn’t mean you should assume he’s back. He might be, it happens, but more often it does not.

Konnor Griffin, demoted by the Pirates: This was supposedly after he turned down $100M to buy out his arbitration years. When I wrote about this in the Guide there a few things I either didn’t know or didn’t understand. If he’s active his rookie year for 172 days he’ll qualify for the Prospect Promotion Incentive award, which means if he wins the ROY the Pirates would receive a competitive balance pick after Round 1. But if he doesn’t win ROY he could still earn the award by finishing in the Top 3 in MVP balloting in the years before he’s arbitration eligible. Probably the next two years. So, there are extra reasons for the Pirates to promote him now, especially since there will be a new CBA next year that could scramble the rules. If there is a next year.

Trey Yesavage, shoulder impingement: The runaway freight of his Rookie season is derailed by this news, but the guardrails of the training department are working and he’s expected to start a minor league game tomorrow. That doesn’t mean all is all well, but it’s well enough that the Blue Jays doctors think he’s going to be fine. Maybe he’ll only miss the first week or two of the season.

T.J. Rumfield, makes the Rockies: He wasn’t on my radar when the Guide came out. What I can say now is that he’s a fairly good contact hitter with good strikezone judgement and he earned his boots in Scranton, rather than Albuquerque, so those skills should in some way line up in Denver. He hit the ball significantly harder in spring training this year than he did in the minors last, indicating some growth perhaps as a physical being and a hitter. And, in Colorado, maybe enough growth to add some power a mile high. I’ve got him at $6 in Thursday’s update. I have habitually misspelled his name this spring Rumsfield, a reminder that there are known knowns and unknown knows. Watch out!

Kevin McGonigle, makes the Tigers: I was confident he was ready and a pretty good spring brought the Tigers along. He hasn’t played in Triple-A yet and if he slumps in some way he’s likely to be on a short leash, but his energy and athletic skills are large. I have him at $10 now and think that’s prudent, but someone is probably going to go to $15. In the right situation I would, too.

Justin Wrobleski, of the Dodgers, is in an interesting situation: He’s in the pen, but the team is also talking about him being Roki Sasaki’s backup guy. On the days Sasaki starts Wrobleski will be ready to take over for him whenever he needs help. Based on Sasaki’s spring performances he’s going to need a lot of help, and Wrobleski could stumble into that situation where he comes in in the second or third and because a starter who goes fewer than five innings can’t earn a W he’ll end up winning more than his fair share. I’m not putting this in my projection, but I think it means Wrobleski is a must-buy in the endgame.

If you’re curious about other news send along questions.

HOUSEKEEPING

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