LEADING OFF
Today’s headline is a takeoff on that old Easybeats tune, Friday on My Mind, from 1966. Yesterday I found a playlist that recreated the great Beserkeley’s Chartbusters sampler and stumbled upon Earth Quake’s excellent cover, which was released in 1975. It is calibrated to get us in the mood for work. Not.
I spent the morning adapting Rotoman’s Sheets for our friend Eric to import into the Patton software, which comes out on Feb. 15th. Annual subscribers to this Substack get access to the full suite of the Patton Cadillac Edition, which includes the software (Windows only I’m afraid, and best suited to list making and jiggering with the projections), an Excel sheet, and text files that have all the same data and weekly updates starting the first week of March through the first week of the season. This is the same data that you’ll find in Rotoman’s Sheets, which is why we’re offering both in one package at pretty much (close) one price.
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TOP TIER SHORTSTOPS TODAY
This list is based on 15 games played last year, so if your league uses 20 games you should double-check that these guys qualify for you. In this top tier, only Marcus Semien and Andres Gimenez have fewer than 20 games played played at short (and more than 14 games played there).
As usual, in this group I’m looking for outliers, guys who seem to be going too high or too low in NFBC drafts based on my prices.
Photo: Minda Haas Kuhlmann | 2021
Bobby Witt Jr., Royals: I’ve upgraded him quite a bit since I did my prices originally because he’s going early in the drafts. His ADP in recent drafts is No. 9 overall, with some taking him as early as No. 5. I’m inclined to wait on him at either of these prices, but based on expectations as a prospect and his solid performance last year (plus he runs) he’ll have upside at almost any price. But at these prices I think more downside. PAN
Xander Bogaerts, Padres: I have him priced just behind Francisco Lindor and the second baseman Semien, but in NFBC drafts he’s going after Tommy Edman and Dansby Swanson. A full round later. Am I too high or are the drafters too low? Bogaerts has more power than Edman but runs less, while he has less power and runs less than Swanson, but should hit for a higher batting average. Batting average is more subject to luck than power or speed, so I can see the case for cutting his price a couple of bucks. PAN
Corey Seager, Rangers: He doesn’t run, which is why I have him priced to repeat last year's numbers, but the room (as it were) seems to be counting on a batting average rebound. His BABIP last year was awful and while some of that was the shift, which will likely be moderating this year, some of it was just bad luck. His xBA last year was .283, which is about where he usually hits. If he hits .283 with power he’ll be a bargain. PICK
Amed Rosario, Guardians: He’s earned $24 or better three of the last four years, which is why I have him listed at $24, but the NFBCers are taking him around guys who are more like $19. I don’t think he’s wrong at $24, but he’s a PICK at anything less.
Nico Hoerner, Cubs; Javier Baez, Tigers; Thairo Estrada, SF; and Bryson Stott, Phillies: I have all of them priced at $17. Last year they earned $24, $15, $22, and $11 respectively. Can Hoerner perform at that level again? There was nothing flukey about his performance. Baez has been up and down, but mostly better than $17. Estrada is the one I’m least sure about. He’s never run like he did last year, and his batting average was a little inflated (he doesn’t hit the ball as hard as Hoerner does, which is why he’s going 40 picks later). And then there’s Stott, who is going 80 picks later than Hoerner. For the first three I’ll go MEH, PICK, PAN. For Stott, a reminder of what I said last week: After a disappointing first couple of months up with the big club he closed the season solidly. His best attribute is clearly his speed, which could tick up the steals if he gets on base enough. His second best attribute is that he makes contact. Was it a coincidence that his overall offensive profile got stronger when he wasn't hitting as many homers? I wouldn't count on a homer uptick this year, but a bump in batting average and stolen bases is possible and would be sweet. PICK
Jorge Mateo, Orioles: I wrote about him before, too. Whether or not he platoons, he’s going to run. Will an uptick in steals in the league dilute the value of part-timers who run a lot? They might. I mean, actually, they will. The more steals the less value each one has. I’m downgrading his price and yet, because he is that bad a hitter, I’m still calling PAN.
Ha-seong Kim, Padres: He proved a godsend when Tatis failed to regain the field last season, and this year moves over to second to make way for Bogaerts. When Tatis comes back he’ll likely play the outfield, leaving Kim space to contribute solidly once again. He doesn’t hit the ball hard enough to up his homer numbers, but if he is able to hit ahead of Soto, Tatis, Machado, and Bogaerts he’s going to score a lot of runs. He was efficient enough last year on the basepaths to suggest he could run some more if the situations warrant it. PICK
ASK ROTOMAN
Hi,
You prefer Kolten Wong over Chris Taylor. I’m wondering why?
“Acquiring Minds”
Dear AMs:
The bulk of it is that I’m not giving Taylor an injury pass for last year. He hurt his foot and struggled with back pain, which surely didn’t help, but when he was able to get out on the field he struck out 35 percent of the time. Even with a versatile and able glove that’s not a sustainable number.
Could he get better? It’s possible, but at 33 years old it’s less likely than I would have said it was a few years ago, so I would like to see him prove it. The fact is that the Dodgers have a lot of other ways they can go if he stumbles again. I’m not treating him like a sure thing.
Wong, on the other hand, is slated to be a platoon player. Again. He struggled against lefties last year and didn’t see many at bats against them, but he was still a productive hitter when he went out there. And in the past he’s hit lefties just fine. He’s got pretty good strike zone sense and makes contact. His red flag is his defense, which was ragged last year according to Statcast. But for the time being he’s a solid contributor with some power and speed and a not-hurtful batting average.
He’s my pick.
Sincerely,
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