THE LONG AND WINDING ROAD Part 1
I forgot that Prince covered this song.
Let’s wrap this up.
There are a lot of outfielders. At the bottom of these lists today there are a lot of bodies dumped, awaiting signings and a clarification of roles. Here are some thoughts on some of the interesting guys:
Nobody likes Jacob Young, except me. A little. He did a nice job in Washington last year, playing center field and putting the ball in play. He’s fairly patient, too. He did start last year at High-A, split time in Double-A, and saw only 17 plate appearances in Triple-A, so maybe he’ll start the season in Triple-A. But I don’t see what more he needs to learn that he can’t learn in D.C.
Pete Crow-Armstrong and Ezequiel Duran are going within two spots of each other in the NFBC and I have them priced the same, but in the PROS361 mock Crow-Armstrong went 70 picks earlier than Duran. Crow-Armstrong is young, with only 158 plate appearances in Triple-A last year, and by all accounts he’s a brilliant center fielder who has enough power and speed to delight fantasy players in leagues where defense doesn’t count. Does he get to all that power and speed this year? I’m wary, hence his price.
Duran presents a different problem. He looked great last year in the first half, he hit .308, but in the second half he hit just .226. The overall results were fine, but he lost playing time as the season went on and the Rangers are a team with a lot of very good players ahead of him. I’m not writing him off entirely, but we should be cautious because it’s hard to see where he gets his playing time. And it’s possible to see that pitcher figured him out.
There was a lot of shiny object hype around Oscar Colas last year, but he didn’t come through. Now the thrill is gone. The White Sox are so far gone it wouldn’t be a surprise if he was given another long chance, but based on what we’ve seen so far it’s hard to see how the glow returns.
Has Dylan Carlson proven he’s beaten? I don’t believe it, he’s still just 26 and has had some major league success. There is room for him to cash in at least some of the promise he arrived with, though he’s taken a backseat for now in the Cardinals outfield. He’s my endgame flyer in Tout NL this year.
Dylan Crews has just 85 plate appearances in Double-A so far, but he was taken in last year’s draft, No. 2 overall, so that’s a lot. He may not get called up this year, but with a hot start, maybe. He’s got all the tools if he is added at some point.
LaMonte Wade Jr. walks enough he’s got some value in OBP leagues.
A lot of these guys, like Drew Gilbert and Alexander Canario, aren’t yet in line for major league promotions. Gilbert is just about ready to try, but right now is blocked by Marte and Nimmo. He should be a solid starter when he gets the call, but short of a star. Canario’s power is in conflict with his lack of contact skills. He could end up a bench piece, though his defensive weakness isn’t going to help.
Jasson Dominguez is a keeper play for 2025, though he is expected to play at some point this summer after September 2023 TJ. In keeper leagues look for him to go past $10.
PART 2
There are more!
In a 24-team mixed league using five outfielders and a DH/Utility player, there are 120 outfield slots and 24 more DH/UT slots. Even with multiposition overlap, most of these guys are not getting drafted in the deepest leagues. But some of them will end up contributing.
Hunter Goodman kind of stunk it up when he was promoted last year, but he has a lot of power potential and will call Denver his home park if he makes the team. And it’s not like the Rockies are stacked with talent ahead of him.
Victor Robles is getting one more chance. I know I know, but he showed progress last year and he has to know that it’s now or never. Or something like that. (If I wasn’t taking Dylan Carlson I’d be on Robles.)
Travis Jankowski puts the ball in play or he walks, and then he runs. Limited playing time is guaranteed, but steals from your fifth (or sixth) outfielder can help. On the other hand, he’s probably not going to see 200 at-bats.
Cleveland traded for Estevan Florial in the offseason and he hit 28 Triple-A homers last year and stole 25 Triple-A bases, but he struck out 29.9 percent of his Triple-A plate appearances, which is why he’s not bubbling up as a sleeper pick. Still, he walks a lot and the Indians need punch.
Dairon Blanco may end up on the weak side of a Royals platoon, but even though he’s pushing past the age of trustworthiness he’s going to steal bases. That’s what he was made for.
Whew.
HOUSEKEEPING
I’m not lingering today because I’m working on getting the spreadsheets out for subscribers here and at pattonandco.com. Look for a link in tomorrow’s newsletter.
After the signature, below, you’ll find behind the paywall links to the Position X Position lists, which are seeing small adjustments as I go through them.
When Will I See You Again Dept.: DHs and links tomorrow.
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