MEA CULPA
Let’s get to the meat first: Due to a cell reference error I introduced into my spreadsheet in 2020, pitcher prices the past three years were wrong.
Why this matters: Because I’m supposed to get these things right, and because when I get it wrong I should figure that out quickly. In this case, I had suspicions but couldn’t pin down the problem. Until today.
Why it isn’t more important: The problem was that the pitchers’ below-replacement WHIPs weren’t showing as negative numbers and so were converted to positive values. So, prices for good pitchers, who generally have above-replacement WHIPs didn’t change a whole lot and generally stayed in the same order. But pitchers with prices below $5 or so showed some big changes, depending on how bad their WHIPs were.
How I figured it out: I had this notion that I would take a close look at pitchers I had listed at $1 and write quick profiles of them. I figured I could clear out some who really weren’t draftable, and I also figured I’d find some gems to share in the newsletter. Both things figured, but then I looked closely at Kris Bubic. He was terrible and yet he had a price of $3 for 2022, which earned a $1 bid price for me.
As noted earlier, I use the $1 bids as placeholders for players who might be of interest because their roles might change, or I might learn more about them. Bubic is actually that type of pitcher, it wouldn’t be hard to imagine him having a somewhat productive year as a starter looking at the numbers, but the fact is that in three years he has not made progress. And he’s coming off the second-worst year for a starter last year, ahead of only Patrick Corbin.
But in my numbers it didn’t look that way, so I looked closer and eventually found the error. The reference to cell AF171 was actually to AG171, and this was true of all 800+ pitchers in my spreadsheet. Bubic’s WHIP was so bad, it turns out, that it’s bizarro version in my Sheet counter-weighted his bad ERA and terrible win totals and his weak strikeouts and lifted him into the low positive territory.
Other pitchers who had bad years last year that didn’t look like it because of my formula were Kyle Hendricks, Kyle Freeland, Dane Dunning, Dylan Bundy, Matthew Liberatore, and Dakota Hudson.
My apologies for the error.
Rotoman’s Sheet has been updated with the right prices.
REALLY BAD PITCHER PROFILES
Here’s what I wrote before discovering the error:
Kris Bubic, Royals: Has not yet developed the mix and control necessary to succeed with an ordinary fastball but excellent changeup. That's not to say he can't, but over parts of three seasons it's hard to see improvement. He's not draftable, even in deep leagues, but if he shows real improvement in-season he might be worth jumping on. MEH (Actually a PAN).
Photo: Jennifer Linnea on Flickr
Kyle Freeland, Rockies: For one year, 2018, he showed it is possible to pitch successfully for the Rockies, but he has not been able to repeat that success since. He reemerged as something of an innings eater last year, but with too much risk and not enough strikeouts to have fantasy upside. MEH (Not a good innings eater, thanks broken formula. PAN)
Kyle Hendricks, Cubs: Is behind schedule returning from a small tear in the shoulder capsule and will start the season on the IL. Back in the day he was a wizard of winning with soft stuff, but it's been a while since we've seen that. Stay skeptical until he shows he can do it again. PAN
Dane Dunning, Rangers: Soft-tosser threw some nice games last year, but enough stinkers to eliminate all fantasy value. He could end up in a back-of-the-rotation role again if there are injuries, but will have to get lucky to generate fantasy value. PAN
BETTER CHEAP PITCHERS
Matthew Liberatore, Cardinals: Former first-rounder was considered a top prospect a couple of years ago, but he's been hampered at the higher levels allowing fly balls and homers (and he walked too many in the majors last year as well). He's still young, so while his struggles are concerning there's time for him to get it together. But this year? Don't count on it. MEH
Ryne Nelson, Diamondbacks: Impressive debut for the D'backs last year, but his season ended early with scapula inflammation. And don't be overswayed by the small sample results, which reflect good fortune as much as skill. He's in the mix for the last rotation spot out of camp and has the tools (excellent fastball, good breaking pitches, average changeup) to be a very good major-league starter. He could also be sent back to Triple-A for more seasoning and a chance to work on that changeup. PICK
Clarke Schmidt, Yankees: Was used primarily as a long reliever last year and he proved pretty effective, against righties. The results were not so pretty against lefties, but reports are that he developed a cutter in the offseason to try to rein them in. If that turns out to be effective he has a chance to be a solid addition to the rotation, but for now he has to be considered a reliever or Triple-A backup until a Yankees starter goes down. Given his injury history, he could go down first. MEH
Dylan Coleman, Royals: Figures to team with Aroldis Chapman setting up Scott Barlow in the late innings, and one would think that if Chapman is doing okay he’ll get priority if Barlow gets hurt or struggles. His 97 mph heater wasn't dominant last year because of his strike zone issues, but if he can get ahead in the count he has the stuff to dominate. MEH for now
Alex Reyes, Cardinals: Has great stuff and was an effective closer for the Cards in 2021, but he walked way too many and then missed all of last season following labrum surgery. A ton of talent is worth betting a little on, but at this point he's a longshot. PICK (And a candidate for the 60-day IL.)
Matt Barnes, Marlins: After a tumultuous 2021 as the Red Sox closer and then not-closer he struggled with injuries last year and saw his strikeout rate crumble. He could end up in the closer mix in Miami, if he regains his strikeout skills, so there is a dream world in which he'll have fantasy value. PAN
Adrian Morejon, Padres: He has yet to find the right mix, but he throws hard with good control, and four pitches, which suggests a future as a starter. He's surprisingly young and though he's slated for Triple-A he could break out at any time. PICK
Kyle Muller, Athletics: Stepped up his game in Triple-A last year but again stumbled upon reaching the bigs. Has the profile of a No. 3 or 4 starter who comes into his own at the big league level, maybe this year. Maybe next. PICK
Matt Moore, Angels: He had a career-reviving season last year after converting to relief. Improved velocity was a big part of it as he continued his late-career slide walking too many. He joins a fairly motley group of potential closers in the Angels pen, which is some reason to be interested. MEH
RECOMMENDED
Don Drooker wrote a weekly piece about fantasy baseball and baseball card collecting for 10 years at rotisserieduck.com. He retired the site last year but came back this week with an updated version of his mammoth You Might Just Be a Fantasy Player article/shtick. Good fun.
MLB NEWS
The Athletic has a story that will be interesting if Andrew Painter makes the Phillies out of camp and doesn’t break down for a few years. And tragic if he does.
Elvis Andrus signed with the White Sox to play second base. He went on a homer tear after he signed there as a free agent last August and it’s a good park to hit homers.
GOING FORWARD
Fixing today’s troubles put me a little behind the eight ball. I’m working on the Historical Charts for each position that usually appear on the Position Pages in the Guide. Should have those ready tomorrow.
Please let me know what you think, what you’d like to see more of, and any questions that come to mind. Either by clicking
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