SCRAPING
THE BOTTOM BARREL Part 1
Avisail Garcia has been good in the odd years and disappointing in the even years. The calendar says 2023.
Remember when the Mets made that disastrous trade for Robinson Cano and Edwin Diaz, giving up the next great hitter of all time, Jarred Kelenic? He’s now more than 500 plate appearances into his major league career and he has a .168 batting average and a .589 OPS, which is not good. So far in spring training he’s been great, again, which gets to the problem. He’s proven he can hit minor league pitching, and early in spring training hitters see a lot of minor league pitching. So far Kelenic has pretty much proven he can’t hit major league pitching, but is that inevitable going forward? Here’s a list of guys who in recent years in their rookie year(s) struck out about 30 percent of the time (that’s the shaded column):
Note that Kelenic’s BABIP in his first 558 plate appearances is .201 (the BABIP column is two to the right of the shaded column, and then BA, OBP, and SLG after that). With 21 homers and 11 stolen bases so far, perhaps Kelenic’s best similarity scores here are Brandon Lowe’s and Ian Happ’s. At $10 (he went for $6 in CBS and $9 in LABR) I’m going to take my chances.
I’m crazy for Bubba Thompson. My $10 bid here is too much. He went for $2 in CBS and $3 in LABR. He changed his number in the offseason from 65 to 8. I should change my $10 bid to $8, at most, because Thompson has a playing time issue. Less so now that Leody Taveras is out with a strained oblique, Thompson will patrol center to start the season, but he’s almost sure to be shunted aside when Taveras returns. Why? Defense. Taveras excels and Thompson does not. But I’m crazy for Thompson because he doesn’t need to play that much to steal a lot of bases. His sprint score? 100. Out of 100! His limited at-bats are a problem in mixed leagues, but in an AL-only league he’s stolen base gold no matter how much and for how long he’s blocked.
In LABR Austin Meadows went for $8. He’s been hurt in 2022, 2020, and 2018, but he’s had fine seasons in 2019 and 2021. He’s got a solid approach, makes contact, hits for power, and used to be a basestealing threat. Maybe the stealing days are over but if he’s healthy this year he should be a solid middle-of-the-order presence on an improving young team.
In the shadow of his rookie teammates Volpe and Peraza, Oswaldo Cabrera is poised to play regularly in the Yankees outfield, unless Rafael Ortega does, while Harrison Bader is out. Given the creakiness of some of in that lineup, there should still be plenty of at-bats when Bader gets back. Cabrera has some power and some speed. His contact issues limit his upside but his approach is solid enough for semi-regular at-bats, at least, which makes his $3 price in the expert leagues a steal.
Masataka Yoshida was a brilliant hitter in NPB, and he lands with the Red Sox this year stoking great expectations. The expert leagues spent $15 on him, which is probably a fair price for a guy who gets on base a lot, as he should. But I’m skeptical that his power is going to translate, and worry that Yoshida’s owner is going to get stuck with an empty average and little speed. My $8 bid price is too low, I’ll bump that up to $12 before draft day, but I want someone else to take the risk on Yoshida.
Jurickson Profar is the best available free agent and there are reports linking him to the Rockies, where he would be a sweet fit given his flexibility and the Brendan Rodgers injury. But first he has to sign.
Photo: Herkie on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
I was reminded today of Tout Wars draft prep in 2001. I had the first reserve pick and I agonized over whether to select the young phenom hitter Albert Pujols or the young phenom pitcher Kurt Ainsworth. For some reason I decided that Pujols was too young, I doubted the Cardinals would promote him right away, and I went with Ainsworth, the Olympic Gold Medalist. As I let Jordan Walker linger on this part of the list that memory creeps in, gives me a little poke, and I shudder. Walker went for $11 in CBS and $16 in LABR. I still sort of doubt that he’s going to start the season with the big club, but I’ve been wrong before.
Excellent defense and way above average speed have Alek Thomas playing regularly in the majors with a bat that isn’t quite there. He takes a contact approach most of the time, but will lay into a pitch in the right situation. His minimal power-speed combo and limited contact skills have his price low, but his athleticism and approach portend upside if he can take the next step.
If Adam Duvall gets the at bats the home runs will follow.
Alex Kiriloff has no defensive value, which means when he isn’t slugging he’s struggling. He has yet to play in spring training because of a bad wrist (that’s especially bad news for a power hitter) and isn’t expected to be with the team on opening day. A breakout isn’t impossible, but you should be wary. This is a fair price, but the bust potential is real.
Edward Olivares has become something of an fantasy baseball sensation not by doing anything but by not being given the chance to do anything by the Royals. Where once he was young, now he’s sliding into middle age, and what once seemed like promise (in the minors) now looks like limitations and failure to scale (in the majors). Still, if the Royals really do give him a chance this year there is a chance he’ll hit that sweet spot of maturity and physical peakdom and finally surprise.
THE BARREL BOTTOM Part 2
I said it before in these pages. Michael A. Taylor is being undervalued in his new environment, and is something of a steal for $5. Or less. I said it again.
His bad toe has kept Nick Senzel out of spring training games and he’ll not be on the Reds active roster on opening day. Time is running out but he’s got a lot of hitting talent he has yet to show us.
Guys with high walk rates and high strikeout rates in the minors often struggle in the majors because they walk less and strikeout more when facing better pitchers. Nolan Jones fits that mold, but still walked enough last year to warrant a more extended look at a regular job. The Rockies signing of Mike Moustakas is not a vote of confidence. Jones is not a guaranteed success if he plays and he may not play, but down here at the bottom of the barrel he’s worth a roll of the dice.
It sure looks like Jo Adell’s pitch recognition is going to do him in, but now that he’s got a full season of major league plate appearances in let’s give the 34 percent strikeouter the Jarred Kellenic treatment:
Okay, one name stands out, but Aaron Judge hit 56 homers in 773 plate appearances. Adell has 15 in 556. Adell’s walk rate also puts him in the company of Jorge Alfaro on the similarity meter. The clock hasn’t run out yet, but it’s ticking more loudly.
Victor Robles had one good year a long time ago, but nothing since. As a pull hitter you’d think it was the shifted defense doing him in, but his shift versus no-shift wOBAs are pretty similar. The one bright spot starting early is that even after years of struggle you’re still kind of young. I have a good feeling solely based on the idea that he’s approaching the sweet spot, where smarts and physical skills reach maximum affect.
There were high expectations for Josh Lowe last year as a power-speed guy, but he struggled making contact in the majors and again when he landed back in Triple-A. The point here isn’t that you should roster all of these failed prospects who are going cheap, but rather that when it’s time to fill out your roster a guy like Lowe is a better bet to surprise than, say, Trayce Thompson.
THE REAL BARREL BOTTOM
Trevor Larnach and Jarren Duran are cut from the same Josh Lowevian cloth. Duran will probably start the season in the minors, but Larnach will get a chance to play because of injuries. Either could be a solid contributor if they live up to their potential, or be absolute zeroes who don’t even get a chance.
At this point in the list, keeping track of who is up and who gets sent down is key before your auction/draft. If Ji Hwan Bae beats out Rodolfo Castro for the second base job in Pittsburgh you’ll see more contact, less power, and more steals. Or they could somehow split time, making both even less valuable.
Despite only 33 Triple-A at bats Oscar Colas is penciled in to play the outfield for the White Sox. He’s having a good spring, but at this point that’s meaningless. If he is a regular or strong-side platoonist he’s more valuable than this draft position, but the bust potential is real. Especially since he hasn’t been tested against the best pitchers. The surprise potential is real, too, I suppose. In CBS he went for $12, in LABR for $4.
I try to like the potential of Kyle Isbel and Conner Capel, but every time I look closely I just don’t see regular playing time for them. This year or into the future.
On the other hand, Sal Frelick just needs a little more work to become a regular centerfielder and potential batting champ. I say that because if you’re looking for a profile like Luis Arraez’s you’ve found it. He almost certainly will not break camp with the Brewers and may get just a cup of this year, but guys who walk more than they strike out are pretty rare.
The Yankees made a good pickup in Rafael Ortega. He’s a late arrival to the majors but has shown over the last two years that he has fantasy value even if he’s not playing full time. He doesn’t hit lefties at all, but is okay against righties. Maybe a better player in real life than a fantasy player, but he does have a bit of power and can run and he has a path to playing time while Harrison Bader is hurting.
Finally, Will Benson cut his strikeout rate in Triple-A last year to 22 percent from more than 30, and saw his batting average rise. He may not be able to make the changes necessary to do the same in the majors, and he may not be given the time, but he has a ton of raw power waiting to be unleahed. For the last guy on reserves, why not?
CLOSE OUT
Thanks for riding along for the outfielders. There will be lots of comments on pitchers over the next three days.
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