Crying Time Again

Even Though, No Crying in Baseball

Mar 21, 2025

∙ Paid

A Reminder for Rotoman’s Guide Owners

Yesterday’s Master Sheets Update and Position X Position updates are for owners of Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide A-Z 2025, too.

If you own the Guide, click these links for the Master Sheets and the Position X Position Update.

The password, because both are limited to people who own the Guide, is the first word in Spencer Strider’s profile. It might be case sensitive.

If you would like to buy the Guide, there are details below.

ADP LOSERS

Comparing the NFBC ADPs from January with those from the last few weeks may suggest who we shouldn’t acquire in our drafts:

Max Muncy, Athletics: We don’t know for sure why Muncy was going 255th in early drafts, but it may have had something to do with sharing a name with the Dodgers third baseman. This Muncy is having a fine spring training but is backed up behind his team’s No. 1 prospect, Jacob Wilson, on the depth chart. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him in the majors this year. He’s a solid defender, but while his Triple-A batting average of .292 looks sweet, its major league equivalency is .259. Not bad, but with just two homers.

Michael Kopech and Evan Phillips, Dodgers: They’re hurt. They also went from in the closer mix in the Dodger pen to fifth or sixth in line when they are healthy, which might be in April, might be later for each of them.

Luis Gil, Giancarlo Stanton, and Gerritt Cole, Yankees: They’re hurt. Gil has a strained lat and is expected back in June. Stanton has tennis elbow in both elbows and it sounds like he doesn’t even play tennis. The Yanks hope he’s back in June, but surgery is a possibility and would end his season before it began. Cole has already had TJ and will be a question mark for Opening Day 2026.

Blake Treinen, Dodgers: Isn’t hurt, but went from possible closer to a distant setup guy.

Ben Joyce, Angels: Same for Joyce, though not as distant. He is now behind Kenley Jansen.

Kirby Yates, Dodgers: Isn’t hurt, but went from being the closer, maybe, to being a closer in waiting when the Dodgers signed Tanner Scott.

Frankie Montas, Mets, and Kutter Crawford, Red Sox: Hurt. For Montas, a lat, for Crawford, a knee. Both hope to be back in May.

Hyeseong Kim, Dodgers: No chance of him being the Dodger closer, he’s an infielder, but the excitement of their big (for him, not them) signing from Korea evaporated when he was sent to minor league camp following Spring Training struggles with the bat.

Porter Hodge, Cubs: They signed Ryan Pressly and Hodge moved into a supporting role.

Lucas Erceg, Royals: The Royals signed Carlos Estevez and everyone believes he’ll be used as the closer regularly, while Erceg will slot in to challenging situations earlier in the game.

Noelvi Marte, Reds: After last year’s PEDs suspension he didn’t do much, and he did nothing in Spring Training to change the narrative, so the Reds sent him down.

Parker Meadows and Matt Vierling, Tigers: Meadows suffered a nerve problem in his arm while Vierling strained his rotator cuff early in camp. Both expect to be back in April, but neither is hitting yet. Vierling dropped more than 100 places, about seven rounds, putting him in the endgame. Meadows dropped 75 or so, five rounds, which may not be enough of a discount when there’s no timeline for his return.

Adrian Del Castillo, Diamondbacks: He wasn’t going that high, but the hopes were he’d end up with the backup catching job because he can hit. He hasn’t, however, this spring, and Jose Herrera is perfect for the backup catching job behind Gabriel Moreno because it requires mostly not playing.

Not surprisingly, injuries and change in roles for relievers are the reasons draft fortunes have changed for most.

HAPPY DAYS ARE HERE AGAIN

On the flip side, there are ADP risers. Actually, these guys weren’t taken by anyone in January.

Mike Clevinger, White Sox: He’s in the running to close for a team that will be a big surprise if it wins 40 games.

Taylor Rogers, Reds: He’s behind Alexis Diaz, the No. 1 closer expected to go down with injury this season.

Marc Church, Rangers: He might be in the closer mix in Texas. I didn’t profile him in the Guide because he missed much of 2024 with a shoulder strain and he was not on my radar. He ranked No. 15 among Ranger prospects last summer, according to Eric Longenhagen, with a terrific heater-cutter combo and control issues that eased when he returned from the minor league IL last August. Manager Bruce Bochy says he expects him to be a closer at some point, maybe as soon as “when we break camp,” but Church has not been nearly as effective as Chris Martin in camp. He should be rostered in AL Only leagues, but it’s unlikely that Bocy’s breaking camp quip will hold up.

Church’s walk-on song?

Scott Barlow, Reds: He’s with Taylor Rogers, ready to pick up the pieces when Alexis Diaz falls apart.

Jason Heyward, Padres: Another year, another team.

Stephen Kolek, Padres: Might be the Padres fifth starter, with Matt Waldron hurt, Kyle Hart down with the flu, and Randy Vasquez not impressing. Kolek only struck out 7.5 per 9 last year working out of the pen, and he’s below 6 per in 12.3 innings this spring, but he’s not walking anyone. Not an impact fantasy arm.

Carlos Carrasco, Yankees: He’s got a great ERA this spring, but his FIP and xFIP are bad. The strikeouts are up, and so are the walks, but the Yankees need arms. He may get a chance. You should have him on a short leash if you take the chance.

Gage Tater Workman, Cubs: Yes, that’s the Rule 5 draftee’s full name. A reader helpfully pointed that out recently. Thank you. Coming off a solid Double-A season he was selected and has to remain on the Cubs roster all season or be returned to the Tigers. He’s having a terrific spring, has good defensive chops, and an exciting power and speed combination. Can a Cinderella pick have the middle name Tater?

Joey Gallo, Free Agent: He wasn’t on the January ADP list, signed a minor league deal with the White Sox, and went 2-20. He begged off the White Sox roster and has announced he’s going to come back as a pitcher. Probably not this year. I’m assuming he wasn’t drafted in his NFBC leagues because of his arm.

In terms of the ADP risers, we have:

Ryan Pressly, Cubs: Should be the closer.

Cam Smith, Astros: Some Astros followers thought Smith, who is having a hot Spring Training, would break camp as the team’s regular right fielder. He was the No. 14 overall out of the 2024 draft, and hit his way up to Double-A. But only for 20 plate appearances. Other Astros followers are saying the team isn’t giving up on Chas McCormick yet and will send Smith down for more seasoning. I juiced him in yesterday’s update after listening to that first group and now I’ve tamped him down a bit today after considering the second group. It could go either way, and even if he makes the team he might shine or stumble, just like everyone else.

Will Warren, Yankees: In the mix for a rotation slot with the Yanks down some starters. He’s got potential, gets swings and misses and doesn’t walk too many hitters, at least in the minors, but everywhere he’s been he’s been prone to allowing fly balls that leave the yard.

Austin Hays, Reds: He was so terrible after the trade to the Phillies last year he was left by fantasy players for dead. But he signed with the Reds and has been showing more power in camp. So, he’s not dead, but may end up platooning.

Tommy Pham, Pirates: Like a cat, and the young Woody Allen, he always lands on his feet. He’s come back from disappointing seasons before, but he’s older now.

Max Scherzer, Blue Jays: After his limited time on the field in 2024, everyone was off him, but he was sharp in Spring Training and interest revived. He’s been out with a sore thumb but is supposed to take the mound this weekend. I have to say that an old pitcher with injury issues who shows a brief revival and then gets hurt again doesn’t have my full confidence, but the fact that he’s pitched pretty effectively when he’s been able to go has my attention. I’d love to see a post-season Scherzer-Kershaw matchup.

Michael Soroka, Nationals: I’m sure he wants to get back to starting, but it’s not going well in camp, and it didn’t go well last year

A screenshot is worth 125 words.

Drake Baldwin, Braves: Sean Murphy cracked some ribs, is out until sometime in late-April supposedly, and there is talk about him being Pipped by Baldwin. Baldwin is clearly talented and delivered last year in Triple-A with the bat. His defense appears not to be up to Murphy’s, and it wasn’t that long ago that the Braves moved William Contreras, soon to become the best-hitting catcher in the game, for Murphy himself. Baldwin is worth a small bet that he can stick as the backup when Murphy is back, or he hits enough in April to inspire a trade, but don’t expect him to push Murphy aside.

Max Meyer, Marlins: He’s had a solid spring and is likely to become the fifth starter on a Florida team, I can’t say it enough, that is going nowhere. He was the No. 3 overall in the 2020 draft but hasn’t shown the swing-and-miss stuff at the higher levels you’d hope for. Still, a solid arm with decent control, he could be a bit of a surprise this year.

Dustin May, Dodgers: Like Meyer, May is looking at the No. 5 rotation slot until Shohei Ohtani returns, when he’ll move into the No. 6 slot. If he lasts that long. May has great stuff but has had no durability for years and years and years.

Jerar Encarnacion, Giants: He has real power and now tied into the short-side platoon role maybe he’ll make enough contact to provide value to the Giants and NL Only fantasy owners.

Chris Martin, Rangers: When he signed he became the de facto closer and his ADP improved.

Ben Rice, Yankees: With Giancarlo Stanton down for the count, it appears, there is room for Rice. He had an abysmal batting average last year, driven in part by an incredibly low BABIP. Only Miguel Vargas had a worse one among batters with 160 plate appearances or more. He’s not a terrible runner, so he was unlucky. We’ll see how it goes this year. Alas, he no longer qualifies at catcher in most leagues.

Want to see some more?

I’m putting a link to the whole spreadsheet after the paywall, for subscribers.

Here’s a curious one. The guys who have moved less than a quarter of a spot:

FOR SALE

Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide A-Z 2025 is out. You can buy it now!

Buy the softcover book from IngramSpark by clicking here. It’s $19.99. Order it online by clicking the link and be emboldened to bypass the Amazon monster.

Buy the softcover book ($20) or Kindle book ($10) from Amazon by clicking here. The contents are like the black+white pages of the old Professional Edition, with hundreds of profiles, projections, and bid prices by me, Rotoman. Organized alphabetically, to make it easier to look up players by name, all season long. And with nearly 300 Picks and Pans from fantasy experts like Mike Gianella, Scott Pianowski, Vlad Sedler, Doug Dennis, Phil Hertz, Dave Adler, and injury notes from legend Rick Wilton.

The Kindle version is also available for free for Kindle Unlimited subscribers. Download it to your tablet or computer with Kindle software, it doesn’t work on the smaller readers because of the formatting, but you can scroll through as often as you like for no cost.

Buy the PDF file by clicking here. All the content with little of the carbon. It is $12 and available immediately via a link on the confirmation page, for easy browsing.

HOUSEKEEPING

I encourage your comments, suggestions, and questions.

Keep reading with a 7-day free trial

Subscribe to Rotoman's Guide to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.