Closers, Pt. 2

They Long to Be

Closers, Pt. 2

A different approach here. Since ADP is about the wisdom of the crowd and the crowd doesn’t really know much about contested closer situations, and frankly neither do I, let’s look at some of them and game out the possibilities:

“Why do birds suddenly appear
Every time these guys are near?
Just like me, they long to be
Closers for you.”

COMMITTEES

Old-timey committee, doctored by NanoBanana

The Rays: They went somewhat traditional last year, with Pete Fairbanks closing most of their games. But with Fairbanks shuffled across Alligator Alley to Miami this year, the team appears to be returning to a committee approach. Four guys, Edwin Uceta, Griffin Jax, Garrett Cleavinger, and Bryan Baker all had 19 holds or more last year. They all struck out more than 30 percent of the batters they faced last year. They all allowed more homers than you’d like, but they’re moving back to the Trop which should help. I have them priced at $3 (Uceta has a shoulder impingement and is behind in camp), $10, $6, and $3, respectively, in 5x5 AL only. Unless Jax has a clear path to more saves during spring training I might back off on that bid, even though I think he’s best suited for the job, simply because there’s too great a chance the Rays will spread the love around. And if healthy the other guys are just as good.

The Diamondbacks: With AJ Puk and Justin Martinez starting the season on the IL, a motley crew of rag arms look to try to hold on until they return. Kevin Ginkel was a post-season wonder a few years ago, but his season ended early last year with a shoulder sprain and he’s not a dominant arm in the best of times. Paul Sewald missed much of last year with a muscle strain in his shoulder, and wasn’t dominant when he returned late in the season. Ryan Thompson led the team in Holds and had an ERA under 4.00, but also missed time last year with shoulder issues and, as a side-armer who doesn’t throw that hard, doesn’t profile as a closer. Drey Jameson returned from TJ last year but hit the minor league IL with bone chips in his elbow and ended up with only 3.3 major league innings. He throws hard and as a failed prospect starting pitcher could end up closing or setting up. With Puk due back in June but injury prone and Martinez not due back until August, unless the D-backs add someone it’s hard to see any of the others other than Jameson locking down the job, and he has the least experience and track record. As I wrote this I checked my Bid Prices for these guys. Only Puk had a price, $1, and he was projected for too many innings. So, I’ve priced them: Puk $3, Ginkel $4, Sewald $2, Thompson $4, and Jameson $2. These guys aren’t good enough to be worth bids unless they gets saves. There isn’t enough season after Martinez’s return, assuming it’s on time, to stash Martinez, but if all goes well for him he may well end up the highest earning of this bunch even if he only plays six weeks.

The Athletics: At the end of last season it was Hogan Harris saving games, and it is possible he could pick up where he left off. On the other hand, he only saved four games from mid August til season’s end, and he walked more than 4.5 per nine on the season in an offense-favoring ballpark. The team has brought in Mark Leiter Jr., who has always looked like he could close, and brings back Justin Sterner, who gives up fly balls the way Catholics give up fish sticks for Lent. Despite his looks Junior has only six saves the last three years and, as you’d expect, Sterner allows a lot of homers. Even so, he’s got the best stuff, so I have him priced at $7 and Harris and Leiter Jr. at $3 apiece.

SITUATIONS

Pirates must be prepared for all situations and eventualities.

The Nationals: Clayton Beeter finished last year strong, walking only 5.4 per 9 in his last 18 games last year. If that improvement, yes improvement, carries over he may well hold the job all season. But his history of control troubles makes his status precarious. Cole Henry, the obvious replacement (or sidekick) walked 32 in 52.7 innings last year and is more hittable. PJ Poulin has slightly more control, which is not to say much, but is also hittable, so far at least. Beeter is the upside pick, but with so many walks expected I’m not willing to pay more than $7 unless he shines this spring. Then I’d go to $10, maybe. Henry and Poulin have some potential, but still have to make a major step to become rosterable relievers if they’re not closing, so I say $2 apiece.

The Angels: Last week, Robert Stephenson threw off the mound, which is positive first step after missing most of last year and then not being able to work out in the offseason due to elbow injuries. Ben Joyce missed most of last season, too, after shoulder surgery to repair his torn labrum. He also threw off the mound last week, another positive sign. Joyce has consistently topped 100 mph with his fastball, but he’s not as strikeout dominant as Stephenson. Both are serious injury risks, so I have them at $5 and $3, in part because neither has closed before, as well. Behind them are the olds, Kirby Yates and Drew Pomeranz ($4 each), and the not quite as old Jordan Romano ($3). Yates was in a similar situation in Texas in 2024 and ended up a big earner, but he’s now two years older.

The Rangers: Speaking of Texas, the team is once again a bullpen muddle heading into the season. Robert Garcia and old Chris Martin could form a dynamic lefty-righty dynamic duo, or one could set up and the other could close. Last year the team’s saves leader had nine, tied between Garcia, Shawn Armstrong (now a Guardian), and Phil Maton (now a Cub). They’ve now added Alexis Diaz, former Reds closer, who was awful last year in the majors and the minors. While the situation is similar to past committee situations in Texas, a new manager, Skip Schumaker, could make a difference. Or not. While managing the Marlins he spread the chances his first year, and was more concentrated his second, though the available talent had a lot to do with that. I’ve got Garcia at $8 and Martin and Diaz at $3 apiece.

The Cardinals: A team stripped for parts still has JoJo Romero, who led the team in holds last year and had more saves than anyone but the now-departed Ryan Helsley. Riley O’Brien had nearly the same number of saves as Romero, however, and struck out about the same number and walked about the same number. Both had lucky-looking low ERAs given the number of walks they allowed, and had similarly much more average xERAs. Those walks open the door to Matt Svanson, who I discovered while writing this year’s Guide is only the second player in baseball history whose last name begins S-V. And the first relief pitcher. What better harbinger is that for Svanson to step into the closer role? Svanson was lucky last year, too, but has a better mix of power and control than either Romero or O’Brien. I have Romero and O’Brien at $6 apiece and Svanson at $5, not because Svanson is worse but because I think the perception is that he’s third in line. At season’s end, I think he may be first in saves.

The Twins: The team signed Taylor Rogers, who was their closer in 2019, to perhaps close for them this year after trading away their closer and most of their setup guys last year. He’s been decidedly mediocre the last two years, so there’s no reason to think he’ll return to strikeout dominance this year, but he might be able to get by. The alternatives, Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk, Andrew Chafin, Cole Sands, and Anthony Banda, are all middlin’ arms, like Rogers at this point. I’d take Sands as perhaps the most talented of the bunch, and Funderburk, for most evocative name. I didn’t have a price on Rogers in The Guide, but $5 seems fair. Topa, who led the team in saves after they traded Jhoan Duran last year, at $4, Funderburk at $2, Chafin at $1, and Sands at $3.

Mining the bullpen depths for saves can pay off, but there are a lot of options and you aren’t able to roster a lot of these guys. The biggest mistake is expecting middling or fading talent to take to the role and run with it. That sometimes happens, but if you pay as if it is going to the odds are you’re going to be disappointed.

GO WESTBURG YOUNG MAN

Jordan Westburg, partially torn UCL in his throwing elbow: He’s not going to have surgery, which would put him on the sidelines for a much longer time, but part of that calculus is that if the platelet rich injections and rest don’t work he can have surgery in June and be ready for next season. In this year’s Guide I detailed his injury history and noted: “An injury history like that doesn’t mean he will always get hurt, but whether it’s because he plays hard or can’t deal with pain, something is going on and we can’t be sure what it is.” He’s supposed to be back in May, but do you believe he’ll then play the rest of the season. He might, but do you really believe it?

THE STORE

Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide A-Z 2026 is for sale. Usually $20, it’s ON SALE price is: $19.11

The Kindle version is out, too! Price: $9.99

You can order your print and Kindle versions using this link.

If you’ve read The Guide and you like it please consider leaving a review on Amazon. The link above takes you to the page. Good reviews help get the word out. So do five-star ratings. Thank you.

If you’d prefer the PDF version, which you can download as soon as the payment goes through, click here. Price: $12

There is a non-Amazon version. Paypal $20 to askrotoman@gmail.com and I’ll mail you a copy when I get them. That should be this week, they shipped over the weekend. You should also be able to order through your local bookstore, though I don’t know how long that takes.

HOUSEKEEPING

Tout Wars SOLD/IP League drafts tomorrow at 11am. It will be covered live by Jeff Erickson and Todd Zola on the Rotowire show on SiriusXM. You can follow the draft board here. It’s a 15-team mixed draft that uses Holds+Saves instead of Saves and Innings Pitched instead of Wins.

The Perfect Pitching Staff is up next here. Send questions if you have questions, or post comments. I try to answer them all.

If you buy the so-called annual subscription I will at some point notice and email you the PDF of the Guide. Feel free to email me as askrotoman@gmail.com and let me know you signed up for the $40 plan. I’ll send the pdf as soon as I see the email.

Send your questions to Ask Rotoman.

Have a great week.

Sincerely,

The Master Sheet for paid subscribers is after the paywall!

The paywall is now.