Game Playing
They’re playing games!
There are scores and box scores and player notes. Some of my favorite notes come from Chris Clegg’s Dynasty Dugout, where the daily notes highlight worthy and interesting performances across both Spring Training circuits.
But what, I wonder as I read, does it all mean?
We know that Spring Training stats don’t mean much. For years I’ve looked at the home run leaders in Spring Training to find surprising names, and sometimes they work out.
Last year, the spring home run leaders were Oneil Cruz and Kyle Stowers, with seven. Colton Cowser, Wyatt Langford, and Willy Adames had six each. In season they ended up with 21, 15, 24, 16, and 32, respectively. That’s not nothing, they cost $24, not bought, $4, $18, and $15 respectively, but apart from maybe the idea that home run leaders in Spring Training should be considered, what is actionable? Relative to price they earned -$1, -$3, $13, $1, and $14.
In 2023, Matt Olson led in Spring Training homers, with eight. He went on to hit 54 homers, so there is that. He earned a profit of $13. On the other hand, tied for second that year were Mike Brosseau and Romy Gonzalez, who hit four and six respectively in the regular season, after hitting six apiece in camp.
Daulton Varsho and Brice Turang led in Spring Training stolen bases last year, Varsho stole only 10 in season, but Turang climbed up the leader board once the games counted, bagging 50. Nice, right? But in 2023 the leaders were Bryce Johnson and Jose Siri, who ended up with three and 14 respectively.
Last year’s strikeout leaders were Spencer Strider, Jordan Hicks, Jack Flaherty, Ryne Nelson, and Josiah Gray. A leaderboard that surfaced Flaherty, lost Strider and Gray to injury, and Hicks and Nelson to sub-8 K/9 rates.
On the other hand, two qualified pitchers didn’t allow any earned runs last year: Ronel Blanco and Jared Jones. Cool! On the other hand, while no pitcher allowed no earned runs in 2023, Ronel Blanco was Top 3 that year, just behind German Marquez and Spring Training phenom Josiah Gray.
My point isn’t that Spring Training means nothing so much as that it is very hard to figure out which of the things we see in spring are real and which are the product of small samples with games played against wildly variable levels of talent?
So, what is Spring Training made for? Cue Barbie…
No, let’s not go there. When you think about it, spring training has its uses:
Players coming back from injury can be judged healthy, or not, based on ST usage and performance.
Rookies’ usage and to some extent performance can indicate whether they’ll be making the team out of camp or waiting for a later callup.
By the end of camp, usage should indicate the winners, losers, and platoonists of various positional battles.
What ST is definitely not good for is determining bullpen roles. Last year the saves leaders in camp were Yonny Chirinos, Lucas Luetge, Jose Suarez, and Yohan Ramirez.
That’s my take, and I’m curious: Do you have any ST indicators you follow?
THE DAILY NOOSE
Cam Smith, has yet to make an out: He was part of deal that sent Kyle Tucker from Houston to Chicago. The No. 14 pick overall in last summer’s draft, he has four Spring Training plate appearances so far and has an OPS of 5.000. That’s two walks and two homers, a god of two true outcomes outcome. Expect it to be all downhill from here.
Mark Canha, signed by the Brewers to a minor-league contract: He didn’t have a great season last year, not even a good one, and that looks like slow decline. He doesn’t hit the ball as hard as he once did, and he’s hitting more balls on the ground. He still makes a fair amount of contact and walks more than 10 percent of the time, which I imagine is why the Brewers are considering adding him. The idea that he’s a sub for Rhys Hoskins and Christian Yelich has to be a concern if you have those guys rostered, but no matter what happens he’s not likely to have mixed league fantasy value and is worth a small bid in NL only if he does indeed make the Brewers out of camp. $5
Andrew Chafin, signed by the Tigers to a minor league contract: He’s played for two teams in four out of the last five years, a valuable piece added at the deadline to shore up a bullpen. Struggles with his control the last couple of years have reduced his exposure to high leverage situation, but he did hold 12 games last year.
Trevor Gott, signed by the Mariners to a minor league contract: Missed all of 2024 recovering from TJ, he’ll work out of the Seattle team’s bullpen. Could be a source of some holds if he regains his pre-surgery form.
Alexander Canario, traded to the Mets: He’s got tremendous power and is worth keeping an eye on because of that, but he struck out more than 30 percent of the time last year in Triple-A, which is not a good harbinger for big league success.
Robbie Ray, added Tarik Skubal’s changeup: According to MLB.com, Ray contacted Skubal in the offseason and asked if he’d share his changeup grip. Skubal sent pictures and Ray worked to master the pitch. If it works, it should give him a powerful weapon as a third pitch along with his fastball and slider. This is something to follow in Spring Training, to see if he keeps using it and if it works. His velocity bounced back last year after some decline, which make him that much more formidable. $6
FOR SALE
Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide A-Z 2025 is out, as you may have heard, and has nearly 300 Picks and Pans. You can buy it now!
Buy the softcover book from IngramSpark by clicking here. It’s $19.99. Order it online by clicking the link, and be emboldened to bypass the Amazon monster. And please, let me know if you find a bookseller who can order it. I would like that.
Buy the softcover book ($20) or Kindle book ($10) from Amazon by clicking here. They are like the black+white pages of the old Professional Edition, with hundreds of profiles, projections, and bid prices by me, Rotoman. Organized alphabetically, to make it easier to look up players by name, all season long.
The Kindle version is also available for free for Kindle Unlimited subscribers. Download it to your tablet or computer with Kindle software, it doesn’t work on the smaller readers because of the formatting, and you can scroll through as often as you like for no cost.
Buy the PDF file by clicking here. It is $12 and available immediately via a link on the confirmation page.
Role Playing
Today we look at the closers.
We can put them into three big baskets.
Studs. High strikeout closers for whom there is no reason to doubt they’ll be strong all season long. This doesn’t always work out, of course, but to roster them you’re going to have to pretend it always does.
Regulars. Lower strikeout closers who seem secure in their jobs but don’t have that big punchout capability. For the Studs you pay as much as you have to, while for the Regulars you want to pay as little as you can get away with.
Irregulars. These are the guys who may have jobs, or maybe have to win it in Spring Training. They could end up a Regular, but might also end up a setup guy, which is not a basket of closers, but is potentially in waiting. We’ll look more at them on Friday.
But for today, let’s get the Studs out of the way:
In no particular order, Mason Miller (Athletics), Raisel Iglesias (Braves), Emmanuel Clase (Guardians), Josh Hader (Astros), Edwin Diaz (Mets), Devin Williams (Yankees), Ryan Helsley (Cardinals).
As for the Regulars, some notes:
Felix Bautista (Orioles): He’s throwing in camp and is expected to be ready for Opening Day. I’d be cautious bidding him up because of the two elbow surgeries he’s coming back from, but everyone seems to think he’ll be fine.
Ryan Walker (Giants): He did a great job last year, first setting up and then working as the closer, taking a step forward primarily by walking fewer hitters. If he repeats this year he’ll move into the Stud basket. If Camilo Doval solves his control problems he’s as formidable an arm, so there could be competition, but if Walker does the job it’s probably his to lose.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Rotoman's Guide to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.