HANGED TO BE SAVED
Let’s talk about closers.
When Burt Bachrach died last week I played a lot of his songs. Dionne Warwick, Dusty Springfield, Elvis Costello, and this ultimately great hit by Carpenters. I loved it when it came out in 1970, totally different though it was than just about everything else I listened to, and after listening to the fine but not nearly enough Dusty Springfield version I love it even more.
Plus it makes a fine soundtrack while we survey those players we would all like to be a little closer with, the Closers.
I have a problem with Closers. I’ve missed first place in a few leagues in recent years because I blew the Saves category. Sometimes I buy a closer or two, but they usually bust, and oft-times I’m appalled by the prices and I get too cute and from there things get worse. So, I’m not going to suggest you take my word on any Closers.
But I want to get better, too, so maybe we can help each other solve the problem of Saves.
SAVES + HOLDS
Because the modern closer role is often served by a committee, because managers often mix and match their bullpen pieces rather than sticking with a single closer, many fantasy leagues are moving away from using Saves alone as a category.
The argument goes, Why invest all that scratch when the person doing the job can change for any number of reasons? Why don’t we reward skills by including holds in the category?
The idea is that a hold is a mini-save, so why not use both for the relief pitcher component of roto scoring?
One reason not to use holds is that there are more holds than saves on a major league pitching staff. There can only be one save in a game, but there can be multiple holds. In the AL last year there were 622 saves and 1337 holds.
In The Fantasy Baseball Guide 2011 Tim McLeod suggested adopting Saves + Half Holds in order to address the changes in the real world and in our fantasy game.
As excellent an idea as this is if you want to fix the game, I’m a little old fashioned here. The quest for Saves involves the identification of the closer, the assessment of whether he can handle the job, and then the pitcher himself performing up to expectations and the manager sticking with him. Get all that right and you’ve got yourself a Closer.
Broadening the category opens up other options, diminishing the importance of getting it right. As someone who gets it wrong too often, I should be in favor of this, but I just don’t feel it. Or rather I feel it makes much less difference if you get it right, when it should make more.
I don’t have a problem if you disagree and decide to go with Tim’s approach. I’ve played with it and it has been just fine, and just different.
A CLOSER SOURCE
There are three sources for closer depth charts that I use:
CloserMonkey.com sends out alerts whenever there is a change in a team’s closer, and has a website that has a fine listing of closers for each team and other closer news. It hasn’t been updated since the last game of the 2022 season, with no word that they’re coming back, but if I recall that’s been the case each winter. So there’s hope.
RosterResource Closer Dept Charts has more stats and more pitchers. It doesn’t have the vulture save predictions that CloserMonkey specializes in or the chatty style.
Tim McLeod has his own closer depth chart at Prospect361. It has yet to be updated this year. Tim is a keen thinker about the game and player usage in season, and is well worth checking out once the chart is updated.
AVERAGE DRAFT POSITION
The two top closers for 2023 are Edwin Diaz and Emmanual Clase, with Josh Hader right behind them in my book. Diaz’s ADP in NFBC contests in the last month has been 26.84, while Clase has gone 30.19. Hader’s number is 41.18. I’ve profiled Clase and Hader previously.
Photo: All-Pro Reels from District of Columbia, USA
Edwin Diaz, Mets: Set a personal best for average fastball velocity last year, which isn’t supposed to happen, and nearly set a personal best for fewest walks per 9. Striking out more than 17 per 9 gives him extra value. He had 10 fewer strikeouts than Cal Quantrill last year in one-third the number of innings. He’s been erratic during his career, an indication of playing through injury perhaps, but right now he’s on a roll. PICK
Liam Hendriks, White Sox: One of the pitfalls of ADP is that news can sometimes overtake the draft. It was just a couple of weeks ago that Hendriks’ ADP was 31.74, reflecting the elevated claims of people who didn’t know about his diagnosis with non-Hodgkins lymphoma in early January. Neither the White Sox nor Hendriks is saying when he’ll be back, but the expectation is that if all goes well we might see him before the end of the season. PAN, and best wishes for a quick recovery.
Jordan Romano, Blue Jays: Coming off a fine year, I don't think he has the dominance to sustain at this elevated draft position (50.78). He showed better control last year, but gave up a little velocity and threw a lot more sliders. He proved he can be very effective, but also that he's vulnerable to the long ball (even though he didn’t allow many last year). PAN
Devin Williams, Brewers: He walks too many, but he allows so few hits he gets away it. That’s how good his changeup is. When not punching dugout walls he’s been trapped in Josh Hader’s shadow, but Williams’ presence allowed Milwaukee to deal Hader and give him the opportunity. He’s shown he can succeed walking guys. I like to think that leaves room for improvement. PICK
Ryan Pressly, Astros: He’s been terrific, first as a setup guy and the last two years as a closer. But he missed time last August with neck spasms and a stiff neck and as an older fellow the risk of injuries increases. That’s something to keep in mind and something that makes Pressly seem just a bit precious in the fourth round. PAN
THE GAME HAS CHANGED
In 2002 major league pitchers earned 1224 saves, while last year pitchers earned 1232. Virtually no difference. But in 2002 there were 131 pitchers with at least one save, while last year 222 got credit for at least one.
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