THE DAILY NEWS
I wonder, did the Orioles do the big Corbin Burnes deal because of their new investor? The timing suggests so. I’m not sure it matters, but the Balmore team’s terrific position this year is because of the Angelos family’s turmoil and limited resources. Not poor, but not stupid rich.
The brass tacks of this deal are brassy. Burnes is no longer the pitcher who won the Cy Young in 2021. Strikeouts are down, walks are up, and he was sensational (read pretty lucky) that year in homers allowed. Not so much since. But after a fairly meh first three months last year he made some adjustments, notably turning his slider into a sweeper, and from July 1 on struck out more than 10 per 9 innings. If he can continue that the Orioles and fantasy owners will be very happy. And if not, as long as he’s healthy he should be a help.
Especially since the cost is more financial (this is where David Rubenstein might come in) than in talent. Burnes is signed this year for $15+M and is a free agent next year.
This year Burnes is near the top of my starting pitcher list because there aren’t many other unblemished aces. He’s a bit blemished and with only one year of control, so the return the Brewers got for him is nice but not electric.
Joey Ortiz is an excellent fielder who has shown good contact skills and decent strike zone judgment in the minors. Will he hit enough to be a major league regular? It’s definitely possible, he’s gotten stronger and he makes good contact, but that’s not a sure thing. For fantasy purposes, he’s shown power and good speed, but he hasn’t run a ton while coming up. In Milwaukee, he now slots in at third base ahead of Tyler Black, who presumably will see some more minor league time, but Ortiz might be mixed and matched with Brice Turang and Andruw Monasterio, depending on who is hitting. No matter, his price has gone up.
DL Hall has fantastic stuff and terrible control issues. He’ll probably transition back to a starting role with the Brewers. If he figures out how to throw strikes he should be a very solid starter, maybe an ace. If he doesn’t he’ll remain a project, or head back to relief. He’s worth an endgame play this year, he should throw strikeouts no matter what his role.
THE REST OF THE BEST
Only-league choices late in the shortstop game:
According to the NFBC, Amed Rosario is cheaper than I have him.
Chris Taylor is cheaper, too. Maybe Taylor deserves to be cheaper than I have him on this list. The Dodgers don’t appear to need him much, which is lucky for them, because he’s not been all that good the last two years. He still has some power and some speed and the best strategy is to roster him as cheaply as possible.
Hmm, the NFBC has Rosario, Jordan Lawler, and Orlando Arcia going for about $5 each. Which would you take? Lawler is the top prospect, but essentially skipped Triple-A last year and sputtered in his brief time in the bigs. Rosario is a free agent utility guy and Arcia is the starting shortstop for the Braves. Rosario and Arcia both earned $14 last year. Given the same number of at-bats, you have to lean Lawler, but the chance he’ll play only a half-season pushes me toward Rosario, who should have more steals and a better batting average than Arcia. Even if he only ends up with a utilityman’s playing time.
I liked Llover Peguero a little in the second base ranking. Still do.
The NFBC folks are a little hot for Vaughn Grissom, a perhaps healthy hangover from last preseason. Now with Boston, Grissom hit .330 in Gwinnett last summer, and .280 for the big club. He makes contact but shouldn’t be a big homer or steals guy, and is suspect defensively as a shortstop. He’ll play second base for the Sox and I believe I have him a couple bucks too light on this list. I fixed it in the member’s spreadsheet linked at the bottom.
Gerardo Perdomo, Jon Berti, and Brayan Roccho are being drafted in the NFBC as $3 players or less, and rightfully so. Berti has great speed and stolen base skill, but all three have median batting averages at best and aren’t in position for a full-time role. All three should earn the $7 I have them priced at, but with guys like this you want the cheapest of them. Three dollars feels right.
Youngsters Masyn Winn, Marco Luciano, Jackson Merrill, and Luisangel Acuna all got a $5 bid from me. The NFBC puts each in the $1 pool. Winn was young when he was called up last year and only hit .172, but he didn’t strike out too much and had 498 plate appearances in Triple-A with an .833 OPS. Seems like he should get a real shot and though young might succeed.
Luciano will be given the chance to win the regular job in San Francisco. He’s had giant contact issues in the higher minor league levels, so he may struggle with the bat. He’s had only 78 plate appearances in Triple-A, still, his defense is good enough that unless he fails utterly to hit he could get a good run.
Merrill doesn’t have a path to the majors this year and has only 211 career plate appearances at Double-A and none in Triple-A. He’s one of the top prospects in the game, but is very young and a very speculative pick for this year. I’m dropping his price. Unless there is an injury ahead of him we’re not likely to see him until late in the season.
Acuna is older and spent all of last year in Double-A. He’s athletic and exciting and probably too immature and undeveloped to get the call this year, especially since his defensive skills are marginal. I’m dropping him, too, though he is on the Mets 40-man roster.
Brandon Crawford says he wants to play, but has yet to sign. Nobody in the NFBC is drafting him, not even the way they’re drafting Elvis Andrus. Late, that is.
HOUSEKEEPING
After the signature, below, you’ll find behind the paywall links to the Position X Position lists, which are seeing small adjustments as I go through them.
We’ll look at the third basemen on Monday.
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