BIG NEWS
The paperback version of Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide 2024 is out! You can order it by clicking here. It is $19.95.
If you’d like the PDF version, which is $12, click here. There seemed to be a problem with yesterday’s link. I don’t understand why, so please get in touch if you have a problem and I’ll find another way. I’m very sorry for the bother.
Here’s the cover of both versions:
UPDATES
Yesterday I answered a question about how dynasty leagues should treat a player like Wander Franco, who was surely locked up into a fantasy league contract for as long as possible before being locked up by the Dominican Republic’s police earlier this month.
While the writer’s league had a very specific rule that prevented the writer from dropping Franco and recovering the salary he’d committed to him until 2027, I suggested a well-defined process that made it easier for fantasy owners to escape contract bondage caused by no fault of their own.
A couple of readers made good points.
Baseball Prospectus’s Mike Gianella said: “We have a similar rule and I think the person who gave out the contract should be let off the hook. It seems absurd that the Rays won’t be fiscally responsible but this guy’s fantasy team will be.”
Conditioning a fantasy contract on whether or not a player is being paid by his major league franchise seems like a pretty sound way to cover situations like Franco’s, assuming the Rays aren’t paying him. Or it won’t be when MLB concludes its investigation.
Another reader said that his league allows buyouts of bad contracts. I asked how they did it but he hasn’t written back. No matter the procedure, I would think the goal would be to concentrate the pain of the long-term contract into one or two years. That seems fairer, to me.
POSITION X POSITION: CATCHERS
I should have compared my rankings to the NFBC Average Draft Position before I published The Guide. I didn’t and don’t seem to have paid a price with the catchers. The two lists have a -.88 correlation, meaning that as the dollar values get smaller the players’ ADP gets bigger. That’s as it should be.
THE TOP 24
I don’t have a problem with Adley Rutschman or JT Realmuto ranking ahead of William Contreras. Along with Will Smith, they form the top group. Any of them is likely going to help your team and give you an edge over teams that don’t have a top backstop. Of course, if you take these guys too early you’re giving up at-bats, passing on an everyday player for a catcher, who almost always sits more, and tends to be more injury-prone. That’s the everyday balance.
I see that I’m higher on Gabriel Moreno than the market. For me, catchers who hit .275 are gold. And guys who hit the ball hard can add loft and power. Should I have Moreno costing the same as Yainer Diaz? The NFBC players make the argument against, which is that Montero’s power isn’t there, at least not yet.
I think the lesson here is that after the top tier, there is one giant catching tier that goes from Gabriel Moreno or Salvador Perez all the way down to Tyler Stephenson or so. It’s not that they’re all the same player, but you should be happy to have any two of them on your team.
The most interesting may be Stephenson and Alejandro Kirk, who drop into the 20th round. The NFBC crowd has Shea Langeliers at about the same level. Maybe I’m too negative about Langeliers, but his contact issues concern me. It’s hard to climb out of the hole 400-500 at-bats at the Mendoza Line put you in.
(Note: If I hadn’t put the song Chaise Longue in yesterday’s newsletter I’d put it in today’s, triggered by the Oakland catcher’s name. Thankfully, there is no need.)
On the other hand, I seem to be much more optimistic about Austin Wells and Freddie Fermin than the smarties at the NFBC. Wells is young and will surely be in a timeshare with Jose Trevino, but he’s the better and more powerful hitter, especially against righties. Fermin appears to be a pretty good hitter, and while he’s behind Salvador Perez on the depth chart, more time is opening up for him behind the plate, as Perez plays more first base and DH. Both of these guys you’d prefer to have for $3 rather than $7, so maybe I’m pricing them a little aggressively, but I think both of them could potentially play as a second catcher in an only league this year.
After that, you’re scraping the Barrel Bottom.
The Bottom 24
Down here the pickin’s are slim.
You’re balancing the power versus batting average challenge with every at-bat. And sometimes the at-bats are worth avoiding. Still, there are some options:
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