NEWS OF THE DAY
Kind of a short newsletter today because I’ve mostly been working on the projections. A first pass at hitters is posted in the Rotoman Hitters and Pitchers Sheet that is available to subscribers, either the annual or monthly kind.
If you’d like to subscribe you can do so easily by clicking the button:
I’ll repost the link to the paywalled area at the end of the newsletter.
Sad news today for old Met fans, with the passing of Frank Thomas. Obviously not the other Frank Thomas. The original was a bruiser of a ballplayer who seemed to my much younger self to be an awfully nice guy who happened to be the only Met with home run panache. That was catnip for this young fan of the team that couldn’t hit straight.
Photo from MetsmerizedOnline.com, where there is a nice writeup.
The Rotoman Hitters and Pitchers Sheet now has Team designations for many players. I’m going to try to keep it up to date, but it is notoriously time-consuming (right now players are becoming free agents after being non-tendered, and then soon they will sign with other teams, as Jorge Alfaro did today) and prone to error, but I will try to update it regularly. But please double-check if you have any doubts and definitely don’t use this as your source. For amusement purposes only!
As we get further into spring training it will become more reliable.
SOME PROFILES
We’ve been looking at extreme performances from last year in our first groups of profiles. Today we look at the hitters who lost more than $20 in roto 5x5 last year.
As you probably expect, injuries played a big part in these and it isn’t always yet clear how the rehabs are going. But that leads to some different conclusions based on each of these guys’ situations.
Adelberto Mondesi, SS: Potential big earner because he runs when he's healthy, but he's an offensive liability when he's healthy other than when he’s running, and he's proven to not be often healthy. PAN
Ozzie Albies, 2B: Injuries have messed him up the past two years, which may open the door to some bargains. He's not the most patient hitter but he's very productive when he can stay on the field. The ADP markets are indicating that expectations are that he’s going to bounce back, but not all the way to his previous levels. For me, that’s a PICK
Fernando Tatis Jr, SS (though check your eligibility rules): This winter we have many more datapoints than we did last winter, when he seemed to be a reigning superstar with some slightly worrisome shoulder issues. Now he's coming off of shoulder AND wrist surgery, a PED drug suspension, and an apparent history of reckless motorcycle riding. The suspension isn't over until near the end of April, so he's going to miss a few weeks to start the season. Will he get healthy? Will he avoid the drugs? Can he keep either off the bike or, if riding, stay seated on it? It's going to cost a lot to find out, but his skills are so prodigious that any discount could lead to big profits. Not a safe play, but one with potential upside no matter the cost. PICK (if you're trying to make up ground)
Brandon Lowe, 2B: Well, that was terrible. Back issues kept getting better and then coming back all summer long last year, making for one uncomfortable season for Lowe and his fantasy owners. I know I kept him on my limited bench into September before finally giving up on him. Presumably, after an offseason spent trying to get healthy and not back onto the field, he'll be ready to play when Spring Training starts. Assuming he comes at a discount he could be a nice pickup, but check in on that back before you jump on board. PICK
Juan Soto, OF: He ranks so high here (or is that low? Or Lowe?) because expectations were so high. The first part of the season, for Washington, he had BABIP bad luck but hit for power. The second part, for San Diego, the bad luck continued but the power outted. He'll be 25 in October, even with six years of major league experience, which is pretty incredible, and the only fantasy knock on him is that he doesn't run that much. That caps his value just a bit, while his SD slump has to knock your confidence just a bit that he's as great as he seemed last July, which might leave him a nice buy on draft day. PICK
Austin Meadows, OF: What was supposed to be a storybook year anchoring a young class of newly minted Tiger hitting stars was a nightmare. He suffered bouts of vertigo, came down with Covid, had an eruption of tendonitis in the Achilles tendon, and dealt with mental health issues he said kept him off the field. He's now signed for another year with the Tigers, maybe a healthy one with those same and hopefully improved young hitting talents who are surely just chomping at the bit, hoping to erupt. There's no way to handicap his ability to come back this year. With so much wrong it would only take one tiny step back in one area to hurt him this season, again, but so far the reports are positive. And expectations are low, making him worth a shot. PICK
Anthony Rendon, 3B: He recovered enough from wrist surgery that he returned in late September, served his five-game fighting suspension, and played a couple of games before the season ended. If his 2021 season hadn't also been a disaster, and if he wasn't coming back from wrist surgery (which tends to limit power some) he might be a rebound candidate to target. As it is, he's got plenty of upside profit potential if he can play up to his old standards. It's just that we haven't seen those since 2019, when he was both literally and physically a lot younger. PAN
Miguel Sano, 1B: Hurt his knee to cap a disastrous season. He can hurt the ball at any time, but not nearly enough of the time to make up for his failings on the field and at the plate. He projects to the reserve rounds at this point, where a late pick might work out. He's down so low everything is looking up for him. PAN
THE HITTER PAGES
If you check out the player pages you’re going to find a lot of stuff. Here are some details:
Column B: Team
Column C-D: Bats and 2023 Age
Column E: 2023 Big Price
Column F-O: Cost and Earnings from 2018 to 2022.
Column P-V: Major league games played
Column W: Comments/Profiles/Picks and Pans. Most of these at present have been published in the newsletter, but I’m working to get some surprises in there for you subscribers.
Column X-AK: 2023 Projections (in the works)
In the coming weeks I’ll be adding primary position for each player. This pertains mostly to the minor leaguers, whose games played by position data have proven elusive thus far.
For those of you who aren’t comfortable in the spreadsheet, I’m working on alternate presentations. My issue is that time spent formatting and adapting data isn’t time adding to the data, so feel free to let me know what you’re looking for and I’ll try to forge the best compromises I can.
SIGN OFF FOR NOW
Thanks for reading.
Thank you to all subscribers. If you’d like to be a subscriber, here’s the link again:
I’ll be back on Thursday with a little who knows what!
Sincerely,
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to Rotoman's Guide to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.