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Feb 20, 2025

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Ask Rotoman: High Noon for Shane?

Dear Rotoman:

In a recent column by Will Carroll, in Under the Knife, he quotes a Guardians team source stating that not only was there no surprise about Shane Bieber's recent throwing session but he "...has been ready for months." Guardians have not committed to his Opening Day availability but they did not re-sign him for this year to sit for half the year either, in my opinion. Will you revise your Bid?

“Believer”

Injury Showdown Waiting to Happen. *Photo: Erik Drost*

Dear Believer:

I’m always ready to revise my bids based on new information. That’s what bids are for, and the process of getting ready to auction is one of adding and subtracting based on the latest and best information. Is that what Will’s bit about Bieber is?

What I heard about Bieber’s recent throwing session was that he was in the 88 mph range, which is down three miles per hour from before the injury. That’s cool and maybe good news. He’s 10 months out from his April 2024 surgery. As we all know, and a quick look through this database of Tommy John surgeries confirms, starting pitchers take about 14 months to come back from the procedure.

So, do I believe the Guardians when they say, he’s ready now? No, I don’t. Do I think he’ll be ready on Opening Day? I do not. Do I think he might be back in May? Possibly, though June seems more. likely, and even then, as we know from our own observations through the years, he’s likely to suffer from command-and-control issues more than velocity issues when he’s first back. When Tarik Skubal returned from the IL in July 2023 his first month’s ERA was 4.57, his August was 3.45, and his September was 0.90. It was after Labor Day last year that we saw what he’d become.

Since Bieber’s calling card is his control and command, that may not be a good look right off the bat. I had Bieber at $1 because of uncertainty about when he would return, and his capabilities once that happened, but that’s probably too skin-flinty a price. I’m revising my bid up to $4, for now, and if we learn something new during camp, I’ll feel free to revise it again.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

Ask Rotoman: Naming Names Edition

Hello Rotoman:

I have avidly been pouring through my copy of the magazine, excellent as always. I also have been reading with interest your Perfect Pitching staff theories and once again realized how similar our auction strategies appear to be.

I play in a 12 team, NL only, redraft league, normal categories except innings replace wins and OBP replaces BA and my auction strategy has always been to come in 10 to 15% under the typical league pitching spend of about $86 year over year and take that excess to bully a powerful spread-the-risk offense (although I will go for some stars if the numbers dictate it). Accordingly, I need to hit on a correct ace and closer and especially on my cavalcade of cheap starters to make my discount pitching staff work. Two years ago I found a cheap Seth Lugo and last year I found a cheap Nick Martinez as part of the strategy; unfortunately, last year I also found ERA/whip killers Trevor Rogers and Kyle Hendricks and both those categories became a full season problem.

So, with all this said, who would you be targeting, if, you, Rotoman, were the manager of this rotisserie team, as your target ace, closer and back-end fodder? Last year, my ace was Aaron Nola (still valuable in an innings/strikeouts league) and my closer was Camilo Doval, who ultimately disappointed.

”Perfect Squared”

Dear PxP:

It’s always nice to share ideas and action plans with thoughtful people. I’m confident about my best ideas, but validation is always welcome.

I bring this up here because it’s hard to say who to target at this point, when we only have NFBC ADPs to help us understand how the market is shaping up. In general, I want to take the last to go of a group of similarly talented players.

In the NL, Paul Skenes is by himself atop the pitcher list, followed by a group of Zack Wheeler, Chris Sale, Corbin Barnes, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, and Dylan Cease. I think you want one of those five, though if they get too pricey you could try Blake Snell.

In the possible breakout category you might add Hunter Greene, if he goes cheaply enough.

For AL only players, Tarik Skubal, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, and Framber Valdez are the top guys to get, but based on their ADPs going for both Bryan Woo and Max Fried might be affordable, too. Or two.

But I’m not telling you anything you don’t know. You should be able to afford one of the above aces because you’re not spending much money on your other starters, but the fact is that there are many other pitchers who might be able to do the job.

Garrett Crochet is going in the second round in drafts, which prices him in the mid-to-high $20s, which I think is too high because of potential innings limitations and the fact that he struggled in the second half last season. Yet he could do the job.

Also in the AL, Cole Ragans and Hunter Brown, Joe Ryan and even Gerrit Cole could do the job. People are buying Jacob deGrom as if he’s the answer, and he might be.

In the NL, Michael King and Tyler Glasnow and even Aaron Nola can be your guy.

But the goal is to use this plan as a structure, to measure your progress. A lot is going to depend on how your league mates play things, and how many pitchers are frozen. If you think the prices for the top aces are too dear, and then the second-tier guys also push past your comfort zone, it’s possible to take three or four guys with ace potential who might be cheaper.

Shane McClanahan is coming back from his second TJ in the AL. Robbie Ray has had problems staying on the field the last two years, but he’s been fine when healthy for the Giants. Neither should cost you much, and would allow you to pick off other possible finds, like Gavin Williams and Yusei Kikuchi in the AL, and Brandon Woodruff. and MacKenzie Gore in the NL.

With closers I suggest the same thing. Take the lowest priced of the best group. If you’re taking one you want to believe he’s reliable in his role, effectiveness, and health. It won’t always work out, but ideally you take your best shot. Last year I paid dearly for Josh Hader to be my guy in AL only, but later I picked up James McArthur and Jason Foley for cheap and the three were strong enough that I could trade Hader in July and still finish first in saves.

That’s the ideal situation, of course, but the main point is you always have options. And you always want to save money.

As for the cheap guys, the main criterion for them is that they’re cheap, but there are a lot of reasons they might be. Clay Holmes is changing from a reliever to a starter. Kumar Rocker is wild and coming back from injury. Merrill Kelly has his ups and downs. David Festa probably won’t be in the rotation to start the season. DJ Herz was okay but not great last year. Reid Detmers doesn’t have a rotation spot. Brady Singer moves from the frying pan into the fire. Bobby Miller was horrific last year and doesn’t have a spot in the rotation.

You get the idea. And these lists are always changing, because if two people want DJ Herz for cheap, for example, he can suddenly be a $7 or $8 pitcher. Not a disaster, but not as attractive. String a few of those together and you can blow your budget and maybe not put together the Perfect Pitching Staff.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

ASK ROTOMAN: Missing Person

Hey Rotoman:

I might have missed it, Peter, but I didn't see Caleb Durbin in the magazine. I even ended up looking for Chad Durbin.

“And Where’s Deanna?”

Dear AWD:

Chad Durbin pitched 836.3 innings between 1999 and 2013 for six different teams. He had a 5.03 ERA and earned .2 WAR. Pretty close to the definition of replacement. Curiously, his wife is named Crystal and their three children are named Cavan, Cade, and Caris. He was a color-guy on the radio for the Phillies in 2023, but didn’t return last year. Not a one of his relatives is named Caleb.

Caleb Durbin, no relation, was a Yankee prospect who was traded to the Brewers with Nestor Cortes for Devin Williams. He hit 10 homers and stole 29 bases in Triple-A last year, with an .867 OPS. For the Brewers he currently looks like a utilityman and right-handed platoon bat. My filters for who to cover in the Guide didn’t catch him, though I did add him to the Master Sheets a couple of weeks ago. I can see him playing about half time, hitting a handful of homers and stealing maybe three handfuls of bases while putting plenty of balls in play. He walked a lot in the minors and we’ll have to see if that carries over given his aggressive approach. $7

Deanna Durbin’s given name was Edna Mae. She was born in Canada and became a Hollywood actress when she was 15 years old. She starred in many musicals, had a terrific voice, and in 1948 was the second highest-paid woman in the U.S. She does not appear to be related to either Chad or Caleb.

Sincerely,
Rotoman

FOR SALE BY AUTHOR

Rotoman’s Fantasy Baseball Guide A-Z 2025 is out, as you may have heard, and has nearly 300 Picks and Pans. You can buy it now!

Buy the softcover book from IngramSpark by clicking here. It’s $19.99. I got my copy in the mail yesterday and it’s just as beautiful as the Amazon version. I’d hoped you’d be able to order it through your local bookstore, but a reader who tried was told no, and ended up ordering it online by clicking the link, glad to bypass the Amazon monster. Let me know if you find a bookseller who can order it.

Buy the softcover book ($20) or Kindle book ($10) from Amazon by clicking here.

The Kindle version is also available for free for Kindle Unlimited subscribers. Download it to your tablet or computer with Kindle software, it doesn’t work on the smaller readers because of the formatting, and you can scroll through as often as you like for no cost.

Buy the PDF file by clicking here. It is $12 and available immediately via a link on the confirmation page.

HOUSEKEEPING

Thanks to the two readers who left five-star reviews of The Guide on Amazon. It’s appreciated. As last year, a disappointed reader gave it two stars, which is their right, but I think the reasons are misleading. They complain that the contents are in alphabetical order, which is actually in the title. If you’re comfortable writing Amazon reviews I would encourage you to better describe the contents of the book. Many thanks.

I cherish your comments, suggestions, and questions.

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